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Post COVID-19: Nigeria’s Inevitable Season of Compulsory Adjustment on Total Reliance on Oil is Here – Hon. Tunde Olatunji

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Hon. Tunde Olatunji is a lawmaker representing Ife North Local Government Area Osun State, South West, Nigeria. He is passionate about the country and believes the future of the country beongs to young demography. He sponsors an essay competition which calls for entries on the Post COVID 19 economy in Osun State, Nigeria. In an interview with Rasheed Adebiyi, he shared his mind on many issues of global and national importance. Here are the excerpts:

Tekedia:  Tell us about yourself.

Olatunji:I am Babatunde ‘lekan Olatunji, a Legislator, a Teacher and a development economics Expert, with cognate experience in banking, finance, economy and business development. I am a professional in Politics and the Chief Whip of Osun State House of Assembly, Nigeria. I am a native of Edunabon in Ife North Local Government area of Osun State. I hold a Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science and Masters Degree in Business Administration. My conviction in the capacity of the state to harmonise human and material resources for the wellbeing and security of all propelled my adventure in politics and the people of my constituency (Ife North) found me worthy and elected me as their common voice in the Parliament for the second term.

Tekedia: People have said a lot about the preventive measure many African countries, including Nigeria, are applying to the COVID 19 pandemic as being “cut and paste” which could not work in the context of our country. What do you say to this?

Olatunji: If I understand the question, you mean in terms of the preventive measure against COVID-19. Is there anything wrong with cut and paste approach to stop the spread of the virus here? Let’s first understand the universality of the human phenomenon as again proved by the scourge. Against the erroneous conception of some of our people around January and February that Corona virus was a white man thing, and that it could not survive in a temperate clime like ours, but with almost 3000 cases and about a 100 deaths in Nigeria, its crystal clear that this particular disease is a respecter of no colour, language or geography. It is trite that a universal problem also requires universal approach before you start domesticating such solutions as the situation demands. Let’s explore this universality further. From where it originated in China, social distancing, hand washing, staying indoors etc were some of the drastic measures adopted to curtail the spread and these have been adopted as global protocol by the WHO. Coming home, there is sufficient empirical accounts that these protocols imposed by the Nigeria government had curtailed community transmission. In our state here, all the 35 cases recorded so far were imported, first by a UK returnee, second by Abidjan returnees, again by returnees from Benin Republic, Lagos and Ibadan. Again, significant success has been recorded in the clinical management of those who tested positive to the virus. As we speak, over 400 patients have been treated nationwide. Here in Osun, 30 of the 35 patients have been certified well and ok, while 3 are recuperating with only 2 fatalities. So it’s derogatory to describe the current approach at managing this gobal emergency as cut and paste.

Tekedia: You are already looking beyond this pandemic judging by your recent sponsorship of an essay competition looking at Osun Post COVID 19 Economic Recovery. What gives you the confidence? Why the essay now that the curve is refusing to flatten?

Olatunji: You mean confidence that we shall recover from this? I’m incurably optimistic that mankind will come out of this victorious. Has there been any problem that consumed mankind? None so far and definitely not Corona Virus. Recall, part of the global community was faced with similar challenge in 1918, those places are still around today. Malaria, Tuberculosis etc had previously threatened human existence, despite the fact that they are still with us, they are no more threat to mankind today, even in our clime with relative low medical technical capacity. Mankind survived world war one and two with their attendant health emergencies. The current incident will sure become history. Every problem offers its own solution. If there is no problem, there will never be solution.

Why the essay when the curve has not flattened? We are facing a dual socio economic challenge, while the curative measure is already being worked on, measures to address the economy must also be invented pari pasu. I hold a strong belief that both solutions can come within. I’m equally sure that among our young scholars can evolve the postulations to address the post COVID-19 economic challenge, but if we fail to coordinate these efforts, we may be throwing the solutions into the wind. The current drug, ‘Remidev’ that just got approved to fight COVID-19 in US was developed in part by a Nigerian from my constituency – Dr. Babalola Taiwo. So I am convinced that such capacity lay within us. This is the driving force of this Essay Competition that will also assist the Governor Gboyega Oyetola led administration in Osun State to deepen its leverage on the creative capacity of the youths. I’m careful with the participating demography, limiting it to Osun indigenes or residents in tertiary institutions.

Tekedia : What is your assessment of governmental response to the pandemic at both the national and sub national levels?

Olatunji: Both the Federal and State governments have responded impressively well, most especially the South West governments. Immediately the index case of the Italian man was reported in Lagos, Osun state government put up a high powered inter ministerial committee to monitor the development. This was the similar response of governments across the South West States. This proactive measure resulted in the control of community transmission so far, save in Lagos that is the epicenter, understandably for his population and being a gate way city, both in terms of land, sea and air. The Federal Government too responded swiftly like a big brother, though it’s been argued in some quarters that closure of the borders was a bit delayed degenerating in increased internationally imported cases.

Tekedia:As a political office holder, what lessons do you think the Nigerian political leadership should learn from this pandemic?

Olatunji: Not only Nigerian political leadership, but the citizens as well. We have erroneously extricated the citizens from some fundamental responsibilities, placing them in a situation of entitlement always. The media must help perpetuate a new culture of responsible citizenship/followership as panacea to quality leadership. That said. The major lessons learnt are as follows. The preservation of life is fundamental, hence, a functional economy and healthcare system are sine qua non to attaining this status. We must improve our funding to the health sector via the immediate enforcement of the National Health Act, 2015. This legislation addresses holistically the key issues in achieving a Medicare that truly support preservation of life. More importantly, the crusade for diversification of our economy should transcend rhetorics. Can you imagine if we still import rice, beans and some consumables now when all international borders are shut? The consequence would be worse than Tsunami. So the closure of borders by the Federal government prior this period to stimulate local production has proved a right policy with the ravaging noble COVID-19. All those who hitherto shouted hoax that they would die if borders were not open, where are they now? So government must take decisive and tough decisions to improve our local productive capacity. The critical infrastructure must be sincerely and incorrigibly upgraded now, most importantly power and roads. Our budgets must now be designed that capital expenditure will outweigh recurrent expenditure. Government size must be modest, ditto cost of running it. The Oransaye report must be implemented now without much ado.

Olatunji: One constituency you seem to be at home with is the youth and young demographics. Post COVID 19, what is your advice for this set of people in the times ahead?

I’m an unrepentant advocate that the transformation of any society lays with the youth of such society. History has convincingly demonstrated that this demography that occupies no less than 65% of our total population holds the ace to any serious change. Across the globe, every invention and innovation recorded in human history was pioneered by young people between 18-45. Examples abound in this contemporary period. Post COVID-19 era, I charge the Nigerian youth to provide informed leadership in all sectors, they must display capacity for innovations to solve problems. The world needs problems solvers. I must acknowledge that some of our young people are doing impressively well, but much needs to be done. The challenge of our present youthful generation are false consciousness, docility, complacency and despondency. Let them be the solutions they crave for, a solution substantive for foreign exchange.

Tekedia: The price of crude oil has been on its way down since the global outbreak of COVID 19. What does the future hold for Nigeria and the alternatives to the country whose economic mainstay is oil?

Olatunji: Remove COVID-19, imminently, oil price will not eternally remain high. Oil itself will someday soon lose its value as a major product governing world economy. The signs are already manifesting. The global community is agitating for an alternative to petroleum as a major source of energy for its obvious threat to the eco system. Cars and machines are running on solar and other renewable energy are being developed, other forms of potable energy are emerging everywhere, so our failure to judiciously utilise our oil proceeds since 1957, as done by our middle East counterparts is indeed a time bomb.  Alternatives are already available, the indolence pervading our system is the limiting factor, apart from Congo in Africa, I doubt if there is any nation as endowed as we are. My state alone is sitting atop billions of dollars worth of raw Gold, but we still suffer because of the constitutional bottle neck against full realisation of mining potentials in Nigeria. Our land is also 100% arable. Well, the inevitable season of our compulsory adjustment is here, I hope we won’t wait till the time we hit zero allocation on oil, before all of us get to think or do the right thing. In conclusion, the future is bright for Nigeria, because God has already taken care of us, we only need to take painful decisions. Let me end this with the analogy of an intelligent student, he already has a bright future, but without thorough planning and hard work, such future can become dead on arrival.

Tekedia: Thank you for your time.

Olatunji :  I thank you too.

The Brookfield’s $5 Billion Retail Bailout

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How do you become a legend? You do uncommon things. Yes, a Canadian fund has a $5 billion war chest to help struggling retailers (there are many of them, and most are filing bankruptcy – J.Crew, Neiman Marcus, etc).  You can call it UnGovernment Retail Bailout. Money men and women in Africa should study that playbook – there are many companies they can help, and in the process, they will build a superb asset base that appears in the radar once in decades.

Cash is going to  remain king because even the U.S. government which showed signs that it could convert paycheck loans into grants has made it clear that all loans must be repaid. And with the available government loans  prioritizing agriculture, retailers cannot thank Brookfield enough.

Canadian investment group Brookfield Asset Management, one of the largest operators of U.S. shopping malls, is launching a $5 billion rescue fund for retailers that need extra capital to weather the coronavirus pandemic. Thousands of stores have been shut since mid-March, with two major retailers — J.Crew and Neiman Marcus — filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this week. Brookfield said its retail revitalization program will focus on taking non controlling stakes in retailers. The capital will be sourced from Brookfield’s balance sheet and investment strategies.

Time for Africa’s Private Equity firms to rise – and save severely wounded companies.

Why Herbal Remedies for COVID-19 are on Trials

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In the previous analysis, we noted that beyond the business leaders and social supports from the non-governmental organisations and individuals, drug manufactures have also swung into action, researching and producing drugs that would cure the virus. Medicago, Airway Therapeutics, Tiziana Life Sciences, OyaGen, BeyondSpring, Altimmune, Inovio Pharmaceuticals and Beijing Advaccine Biotechnology Company, Algernon Pharmaceuticals, University of British Columbia and APEIRON Biologics, Moderna and Vaccine Research Center, MIGAL Research Institute, Tonix Pharmaceuticals, Innovation Pharmaceuticals, Clover Biopharmaceuticals, Vaxart, Applied DNA Sciences and Takis Biotech are some of the companies at forefront of this initiative.

Meanwhile, the current piece intends to examine some issues around the production and use of herbs for the treatment of the virus.  It is a known fact that Africans and other people in developing continents usually apply herbs for the treatment of various diseases when modern medicines or medical attentions are not readily available. This has been further verified by a recent study which indicates that 80% of Africans use some form of traditional herbal medicines. This use has never been peculiar to pandemic period alone. Africans and others in low income countries have always had the course to use varied plants (prepared as concoction) in their domain for health purposes despite warning from medical experts.

The argument has been that the herbs (or concoctions) are not proven scientifically. The recent announcement of Covid-Organics by Madagascar, a southern African country, and significant interest shown in the herb by a number of countries in Africa ignites the debate on the efficacy of herbs. According to a source, “Covid-Organics is produced from artemisia, a plant with proven efficacy against malaria, and other indigenous herbs.”

A check shows that the plant being used by Madagascar was imported into the country in the 1970s from China to treat malaria. Though, the Covid-Organics is being consumed by people in the country, President Rajoelina said “clinical trials are under way in Madagascar to produce a form that can be injected into the body.”

Apart from Madagascar, a report indicates that a traditional ruler in south-west Nigeria, in partnership with a local traditional medicine company, is working towards a herbal remedy for the treatment of the virus that has infected million and killed thousands of people. The report further indicates that the proposed remedy “is based on a mix of bitter leaves, neem leaves and seeds, sulphur, black pepper and cloves that are traditionally used in Yorùbáland as powerful antioxidants to flush the system of harmful viruses.”

In spite of the believe that herbal medicine has played a substantial role in combating infectious diseases in Africa for years, there are fears that African leaders could spread the virus through quackery, especially with the promotion of unverified drugs or medicines. To further understand public position on the issue, Knowcovid-19 Nigeria recently analysed the views of Nigerians on social media and discovered that 80% of 501 sampled citizens were not happy. This does not mean that people should use any suggested herbal remedy that has not been proved scientifically.

Our analyst observes that governments and individuals with the intent of producing or already manufacturing possible herb-driven drugs should be open for scientific screening and trials. This is imperative considering the fact that a number of herbal remedies for disease treatment, lack measurements among other issues that could result in severe damage of users’ body or leading additional health issues.

Give Loyalty Rewards and Gifts To Clients, Partners and Friends – Tekedia Mini-MBA

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Give an important loyalty reward: offer knowledge, offer Tekedia Mini-MBA. How do you help that special customer if not to help him/her acquire more knowledge for his business? Add Tekedia Mini-MBA – and reward the most important partners with Tekedia Mini-MBA gifts.

And how do you help those your SME clients? They bank with you. They insure with you. They buy from you. You see what they need – and you want them to help. Send them to Tekedia Mini-MBA. We will transform them to become growth champions and better operators.

Tekedia Mini-MBA >> accelerate & advance, unbounded.

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“Sir, I am overjoyed. I just received a promotion. On Thursday, I sent to my CEO a Covid-19 Continuity Plan, using the template you made available in Tekedia mini-MBA class. Early today, management asked me to present it via video. Ten minutes ago, I received an email from Head Admin that management wants me to execute that template, and they also promoted me. I am also getting a refund for my personal investment on this training. I want to say thank you to all the faculty for this service.”

  • A participant received funding after using ideas from our session on fundraising.

“I discarded my business plan and used the Week 1 business canvas on the Challenge Assignment. Today, I am happy to share that less is indeed better: we received $25,000 from an investor. I want to thank all the faculty especially Mr. Azeez Lawal. His course on Fundraising with African sense is the best ever. I also thank you for a statement in one of the class videos, “Your customer can be your investor. Believe this… the best investors are customers”. This investor is a customer and we will begin by serving his company even though we are a separate company.”

https://www.tekedia.com/mini-mba-2/

Beyond Salary Cuts and Dismissals, Companies need to Upskill their Workforce

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COVID-19, the unexpected, rapid and worldwide spread virus, has changed the world drastically. We are in a crisis that has forced workplace closures, disrupted supply chains and lowered productivity. This crisis differs from others in many facets, and it brings significant uncertainty about its impact on people’s lives and livelihood. Infection, cut the supply of labour. Social distancing restricts mobility, with more severe effects on sectors that rely on human interaction (such as hospitality, tourism, entertainment, travel, and education). Emerging markets and developing economies, face more challenges, with reversals in capital flows, currency pressures, a plunge in commodity price, while coping with a weak health and social system.

Based on the assumption that the pandemic and necessary containment, peaks in the second quarter for most countries, and recedes in the second half of the year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the global economy will contract sharply by 3%. This is an outcome that is far worse than the 2009 Great Recession. Both the advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies are in recession. While global growth is expected to rebound to 5.8 percent in 2021, “the cumulative loss to global GDP over 2020 and 2021 from the pandemic crisis could be around 9 trillion dollars, greater than the economies of Japan and Germany, combined”.

Source: IMF

The impact of this would vary depending on the sector, financial capabilities, and management decisions of the company.  As it is, with other recessions, certain businesses will permanently shut down, while some will struggle and some will come out as a winner. Also, some jobs will be lost, while there will be demand for certain talents and some sort of job reshuffling. Already, companies are responding with several restructuring and prudent measures, in order to remain in business. This includes compensation, restructuring, deferment of increment or promotion, axing temporary employees, furlough leave, retrenchment, shutdown of operations and many more. While these are pretty good measures, companies need to do more on competency mapping of their employees, and explore the possibility of reskilling and upskilling their workforce, in order for the company, to emerge stronger from the COVID-19 crisis. What is the risk profile of your workforce? Which roles are business-critical? And what skills/talents are needed to scale through?

No doubt, this crisis has forced many businesses to change the way they operate. There is a huge shift towards remote work, in order to reduce human-to-human contact and potential coronavirus infections. Even before the crisis, rapidly evolving technologies and modern ways of working were already disrupting jobs and reshaping the skills employees need to perform them. This crisis has further fast-tracked this journey. While you may expect remote work to fade, as the containment phase of the crisis increases, there is enough evidence to suggest that this trend will continue, as the use of technology, has never been felt more.

Thus, workers need to figure out how they can adapt rapidly to this dynamic landscape and the demands of the “distance economy”. Companies need to develop a talent strategy that develops employees’ digital capabilities, and well as their adaptability and resilience.  Knowing fully well, it is difficult for companies to be resilient, if their employees are not, business leaders must pay special attention to this.

For example, the healthcare system in the UK has seen years of digital evolution, compressed into weeks by this crisis. In 2019, less than 1 percent of medical appointments took place remotely. Fast forward, to 2020, doctors now access 100 percent of patients through online and telephone, with only 7 percent proceeding to face-to-face consultations, according to BBC analysis. This massive shift implies that health workers must learn how to effectively and safely conduct remote diagnosis.

As mentioned earlier, companies need to conduct a workforce analysis and competency mapping, to identify critical value drivers and talents that are necessary for the survival of your business model. What are the roles of these value drivers and how will their daily operations change as a result of value shift? What shifts in activities, behaviour, and skills are needed?

Subsequently, you need to build employees’ skills that will be crucial to driving value in your adjusted business model and enable you to respond well to changes. Expand the ability of your employees to operate remotely, while strengthening their social and emotional skills, to ensure that professional engagement is kept, despite the distance. If transiting to a more tech and data driven model, then, there will be a need for your employees to understand how to employ digital tools such as data analytics, machine learning to improve their productivity.

This is not the time to slash employee-training budgets. According to the U.S Training Report, before, during and after the Great Recession, revealed that there was a significant drop in the training expenditures in 2009 and 2010, followed by a boost in 2011 (surpassing the 2007 level), and then a drop to 2008 levels in 2012. This data tells us that if companies cut their investment in training now, it is only a delayed investment. And delay may be more costly, since the current crisis will require a substantial skill shift than the financial crisis of 2008.

Source:  US Training report

We may not be able to control what is happening to our world today, but we can control how it will affect us. As I noted in this piece, the coronavirus pandemic is accelerating us towards a new normal, that was already on-going  through automation, artificial intelligence and digitalization. And it is imperative that business leaders understand that the survival of their business hinges on the performance, resilience and adaptability of their workforce.  Salary cuts and disengagements might be a good short-term response, but may not be sufficient alone, for companies to come out strong in the long term. Building your workforce to adapt must be your topmost priority, to ensure that your adjusted business model is successful. Don’t delay this. Start now, experiment quickly and iterate.