President Muhammadu Buhari wholeheartedly thanks all Nigerians for their patience, resolve and strong determination to defeat the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.

He, however, asked Nigerians to exercise more patience and stay at home as the battle continues.

The President said:

“We realize that today, there will be sons and daughters unable to visit their parents, and elders that are isolated from young ones. And there will be those who live day-to-day, eating as they earn, who face real and present suffering.

“No elected government could ask more of the citizens of the country that elected them than today we ask of you. But we must ask you – once more – to observe restrictions on movement where they are in place, and follow the instructions of our scientists and medical advisers: stay home, wash your hands, save lives.

“The freedoms we ask you to willingly forsake today will only last as long as our scientific advisers declare they are necessary. But they are essential – world over – to halt and defeat the spread of this virus.

“For those who suffer most egregiously, the Government has announced multiple measures to assist: 70,000 tonnes of grain is being released from the National Strategic Grain Reserves for distribution to those in most need; distribution of small cash payments are also being made, and will continue to be made by the federal government in the states and local government areas.

“We ask you to listen and follow public announcements via the mass media for instructions as to how to receive this government support – and learn of more public assistance in the coming days.

“All that the Government is asking you to endure is because nowhere in the world today is there any known way of defeating this pandemic. There is no vaccine. And that means there are choices to be made: between continuing as usual, or accepting the restrictions even when they come with unintended consequences.

“But at this darkest hour, it remains our duty to offer you the full and unvarnished truth: This is a global pandemic. 210 countries and territories across the globe are affected. We cannot expect others to come to our assistance. No one is coming to defeat this virus for us.

“Instead, the defeat of the virus in our country will be in our hands, alone. We cannot wait for others. We can only depend on ourselves now. And so we must – and we will – end this outbreak ourselves as Nigerians, together”.

The challenge following this statement has been the federal government’s inability to live up to expectation in making food provision for the stay-at-home. Though there have been some intervention measures like the N20,000 cash distribution to poorest Nigerians. The palliative has been marred by inconsistencies that the National Assembly had to summon the Minister of Finance.

On Saturday last week, the national assembly had faulted the method of dispatch of the fund. The Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs has been tasked with the distribution of the fund and other provisions. The Ministry has embarked on cash handout to individuals, which has been widely condemned.

The Finance Minister Mrs. Zainab Ahmed said the majority of the beneficiaries are unbanked and there is no other way to send them the money except through cash.

However, Senate President Ahmed Lawan said the method is questionable and needs to be redefined.

“I think time has come for us to redefine the implementation of the Social Intervention Programme, probably going out to communities to give them N20,000 per person might not be the best way to go. It is still an effort, but I think we need a better approach that will be more efficient,” Lawan said.

The cash distribution method has been criticized, and the entire programme accused of nepotism and corruption even though the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Mrs. Maryam Uwais, said they used community leaders to identify the most vulnerable households who deserve the money.

Other measures include the strategic distribution of grain across the 36 states of Nigeria. But that is yet to take effect even though Nigerians are two weeks into the lockdown and it certainly appears that it will be extended as the cases of coronavirus keeps increasing.

There are so far, 318 confirmed cases and 10 deaths, and many contacts are yet to be traced.

The most affected state in Nigeria, Lagos, has failed to provide it residents with food to enable them stay at home. Consequently, many have been forced to leave home looking for food.

President Buhari said there will be more palliatives through the Social Intervention Programme, but the concern lies on whether the provision and sharing formula will be efficient enough to reach everyone in need.

When a tree falls in the forest when no one is there, does it make noise? Yes it does, no it does not make noise. The two responses are actually correct depending on the person that is responding.

To a forest or an agricultural expert, he will answer that the tree that fell makes great sounds. That just because no one is there does not mean it did not cause great vibrations, panics and scare other rodents away.

To a non-expert, his response will be, it does not make a sound simply because nobody is there to listen to it.

 That is the exact occurrence of the coronavirus pandemic. To people that don’t know the impact of this virus, they will claim that things will be normal again and in a short while. To others, who have an economic lens and entrepreneurial lens, they will say the world has not seen this kind of economic catastrophe before.

Strive Masiyiwa in his article on his Facebook page pointed out five problems this global recession will cause to the world and how we should respond. They are; restarting our economies, getting children back to schools, food security, creating jobs again and addressing other neglected diseases.

In this article, we shall see how the Airbnb business model was disrupted by covid-19 and how they can pivot with some exceptional ideas.

 The Areas of Disruption by Covid-19

In my article on how the coronavirus disrupted the ride hailing business model, I explained the disruption based on the architecture of the business. The same pattern I will apply to show how Airbnb was affected and disrupted. Let’s get started.

 The Guest Component

The Uber for hospitality ecosystem works by bringing the hosts and guests together in order to create value for both parties. The guest is the one that will book an accommodation to stay in the host’s lodge. The problems created by the covid-19 pandemic to this component are;

1. Guests are strangers that come into a city. Now that the hospitality, tourism and airline industry are halted, it means there is a decline in demand for Airbnb lodge.
2. The social distancing is one of the directives of the pandemic experts. That means, stranger cant be accepted to stay in a community being that they can be threat to the health of the people in that community, if they are carriers of covid-19.

 If there is no guest in the business model of the Airbnb, that means the demand side of the business is zero.

The Host Component

How can there be supply when the demand for lodging is zero. In this case, supply is superfluous since the hosts depend on their properties listed on Airbnb for livelihood.

The host component part of the model is disrupted these ways;

1. Fear of welcoming strangers because the coronavirus can be transmitted from one person to another.
2. The government has even ordered the closure of the tourism sector and other businesses. The stay at home order is actually staying out of business for others.

 Now that the supply side of the architecture of the model is also affected, what should we do? What about the technological component? Let’s say if this is still valid in the equation of Airbnb.

 The Technology Component

Mobile Application technology is the technology that brings together the host and the guest. These are how the tech component of the business is affected;

1. There is no listing of lodges by Airbnb hosts on the App.
2. There is cancellation of bookings by Airbnb management.
3. There is no new booking  by the Airbnb community.

 At this stage, there won’t be an increase in the number of downloads of the applications because it virtually has lost time value.

 What can we do with this disruption? Here are my suggestions for a successful pivoting of the Airbnb model.

Pivoting the Airbnb Model or be Overtaken

Peter Druck is always correct that marketing and innovation make money, others are cost. This has become more valid in this coronavirus pandemic than ever. Every business will either pivot or innovate in order to be sustainable in the new economy. Here is what I think Airbnb should do;

 The Real Estate Sector Pivoting

Airbnb is actually in the hospitality industry which is related to the real estate industry. What I think will be a successful pivoting for the business is pivoting to the real estate industry. The reason is simply because they have experience in a related industry. Brain Chesky and his management should use their wealth of entrepreneurial experience to innovate in the real estate business.

 The e-real Estate Sector Pivoting

I have come to believe that the digital revolution has replicated everything that is tangible and intangible or digital forms.  Some of the examples are shop and e-commerce, book and e-book etc. In the same vein, we have real estate and e-estate. E-real estate is the buying of space (properties) on the internet in the form of domain names and hosting.

It will be wise for Airbnb to pivot into this industry since it is also a tech company that is solving lodging problems.

With proper innovations of the business and pivoting, the business will continue to thrive.

 We need to change the way we see things. Now, let’s think of new ways we can do business in the new economy that will emerge after the coronavirus pandemic; only then will our survival be guaranteed.

In a previous rticle, I explained how the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic and its attendant problems on the social and economic lives of Nigerians is a sort of karma in Nigeria.

Now, I am afraid it could be more serious than that.

I sense that except there is an alteration of the current sequence of events, an apocalypse is brewing in Nigeria.

Beyond the detected covid-19 cases in people who traveled into the country from abroad, it is now an established fact that there is rampant local transmission of the virus in Nigeria. Also, due to the current lock-down, a lot of Nigerians are seriously suffering, crime is increasing and a lot of law-abiding citizens are resorting to self-help to protect themselves.

It is from these two inferences that I postulate that Nigeria could be heading for serious calamity.

On the 10th of April, 2020, 3 new covid19 cases were reported in Daura, Katsina state. The 3 new cases are the wife and two children of the first reported case in Katsina. Daura like most areas in Nigeria has a population that is predominantly uneducated, ill-informed and poverty-stricken.

In areas like this, transmission can occur very quickly and in secrecy.

Within a location such as Daura, health coverage is very limited and a comprehensive covid19 test that effectively covers the whole population is virtually impossible considering the horrible Nigerian healthcare system. You can bet Daura has much more covid19 cases than the official confirmations.

Let’s call this phenomenon the Daura factor.

For clarity, let us define the Daura factor as ‘’covid19 spreading fast in an unpredictable manner and shrouded in secrecy due to poor healthcare system and poor human, technological and infrastructural development’’.

Recently, 3 covid19 cases detected in Lagos state were transferred to Ogun state. This was due to the reason that they are resident in Sango Otta, a big town in Ogun state that borders Lagos. The implication is that the coronavirus is now in Sango Otta and transmission is inevitably ongoing.

Sango otta might be more developed than Daura but it is reasonable to say that the Daura factor is currently playing out in Ogun state.

The first confirmed covid19 death in Delta state is an instructive story.

The concerned individual had underlying health issues and had visited Lagos two weeks before. He got sick and was admitted to a private hospital situated within a residential building. The assumption at this time was that it was a non-covid19 sickness. Later, the sickness got out of hand and he was transferred to a public hospital. Shortly after his specimen was taken, he passed away. His test result however came back positive with the coronavirus.

Imagine the number of people that would have unknowingly contacted the virus through this man, both directly and indirectly. The Daura factor is currently playing out in Delta state.

A patient arrived at Lagos University Teaching Hospital’s emergency unit on the 2nd of April, 2020 complaining of malaise, tremors and fever. On admission, the patient did not disclose the fact that he returned from Holland two weeks before where he went for follow-up treatment after a renal transplant. The patient died the following day. A test conducted on the deceased body revealed he had coronavirus.

You can bet many local transmissions has occurred through this man. The Daura factor is playing out in Lagos state.

According to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), as at 12th of April, 2020, there are 323 confirmed covid19 cases in Nigeria. It would be reasonable to say the unconfirmed cases in Nigeria are in thousands, if not tens of thousands right now.

In line with global response aimed at curtailing the coronavirus pandemic, the Nigerian government has ordered residents of Abuja, Lagos and Ogun state to stay at home for 14 days lasting till 13th of April, 2020. Many state governments have equally taken the cue.

While this approach is commendable, its copy and paste nature can simply not work in Nigeria like it would in saner climes with structured systems and responsible/competent government.

Many residents in Lagos and Ogun state are no longer sleeping at night due to a sharp increase in crimes perpetrated by hoodlums and hungry youths.

More than half of the Nigerian population live under extreme poverty and a huge segment of the working population live from hand to mouth on a daily basis. It is impossible to ask this huge disadvantaged population to stay home for 14 days without expecting big trouble.

I saw a video on Twitter showing the Awori area of Agege where a crowd of men with cutlass and other weapons came out in the night to act as vigilantes in order to protect their community.

A twitter handle @_opyzle with the name Omoluabi reported on the 12th of April, 2020 that there is a serious robbery going on at Abule-Ijoko in Ogun state.

Kate Henshaw, a Nigerian celebrity, reported on Twitter that a lady went to buy stuff at Lekki phase 1 and that boys/guys were lined up on the road saying they were hungry and begging for food.

That is the brink on which those boys/guys can turn to crime very soon.

A twitter handle @iamMotola with the name Tola posted some pictures of himself and others keeping guard at night with the caption – ‘’Haven’t slept in like 5 days straight…rather die protecting my family than to be killed in my sleep’’.

What Tola doesn’t know is that he is equally acquiring a new skill in violence and depending on future circumstances of his life, that skill could later haunt the society.

The fact of the Nigerian lock-down is that too many people are suffering intensely and a lot of people are afraid for their lives, the lives of their loved ones and the likely loss of their little acquisitions due to the increasing wave of armed robbery and other crimes.

The 14 days lock-down ended on 13th of April and the Federal government has extended it by another 14 days lock-down. This has serious security implications and citizens might revolt against the government when the suffering becomes too unbearable.

The bitter truth is that another 14 days lock-down will not stop the spread of the coronavirus, it can only slow its spread. What will the government do when the 14 days extension expires?

And so the Nigerian government is very close to finding itself between the devil and the deep sea – relax the current lock-down and have the coronavirus spread at a faster rate than it is currently spreading or continue with the lock-down and risk citizens revolting against the government.

Such is the perfect recipe for a national cataclysm.

I do not pity the Nigerian government at this troubling time. They have sown into the wind for decades and are bound to reap the whirlwind currently brewing.

Hopefully, a vaccine or cure comes soon enough as it appears this virus is unstoppable any other way.

God help us all.

PS: I was intentional about using the term the Daura factor because Daura is the hometown of President Muhammadu Buhari, and like the Nigerian system, his leadership in this crisis has been very poor.