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The CBN Press Release

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Godwin Emefiele (CBN governor)

Good move by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to go out and put its message (see press release below). Yet, the comment from NNPC this week makes this also challenging. Unlike most countries, in the altar of Nigeria’s economy, the supreme high priest is the GMD of NNPC, not the governor of the central bank. So, when matters heat up, few care what the central bank is saying. If NNPC is saying that it cannot find buyers for oil even at $32 per barrel, there are limited things CBN can do because it has failed, over decades, along with other agencies to architect with the government, and  diversify the economy. Managing the revenue from oil proceeds in foreign banks like JP Morgan, Citi and Goldman Sachs changes nothing if those bank accounts are not getting new inflows from oil sales.

In a statement in Abuja, Group Managing Director of the NNPC, Mallam Mele Kyari, who was speaking at the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Round Table discussion, also warned of serious economic challenges as a result of the falling crude oil price.

He called on government at all levels, captains of Industries and the organized private sectors to brace up for the new low regime of global crude oil prices, while he added that realistic estimates must be made to reflect the current realities of the crude oil market.

Despite the global downturn, Kyari, however, stated that the NNPC was working round the clock to increase the countries daily crude oil output to three million barrels per day and shore up the country’s crude oil reserves to 40 billion barrels.

Coronavirus Is Taking Down Sports

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The world of sports is gradually coming to a halt due to the spread of coronavirus. The impact is forcing the suspension of sports activities along other events that functions through large gatherings.

The Union of European Football Association (UEFA) has announced that the Champions League and the Europa League may be suspended in an effort to curtail the spread of the virus. UEFA made the announcement on Thursday as concern over the welfare of fans and footballers heightened in Europe.

“In the light of the ongoing development in the spread of COVID-19 across Europe and the changing analysis of the World Health Organization, UEFA has today invited representatives of its 55 member associations, together with the boards of the European Club Association and the European Leagues and a representative of FIFPro, to attend meetings by videoconference on Tuesday 17 March to discuss European football’s response to the outbreak.

“Discussions will include all domestic and European competitions, including UEFA EURO 2020. Further communication will be made following those meetings,” the statement from UEFA said on Thursday.

The WHO has published further findings about the coronavirus that require further precautionary measures, especially from those in the sports business. Scientists now believe that coronavirus can survive in the air for three hours, and it can stay alive on copper for four hours, and 24 hours on cardboard and 72 hours on plastic and steel.

The recent finding puts the entire world of athleticism in an impossible position following the number of athletics who have been confirmed positive since the past two days.

Juventus defender Daniele Rugani tested positive on Wednesday, Sampdoria also announced that Manolo Gabbiadini has been confirmed positive on Thursday. In Madrid, one of the club’s basketball players has also tested positive and the entire squad has been placed in two weeks isolation. The Champions League match between Real Madrid and Manchester City has been suspended for two weeks.

For the first time since World War II, Italy imposed restriction on the movement of its citizens. The country is the second most badly hit by the COVID-19 after China, forcing the government to place public activities on hold. Italians are urged to stay at home and the Serie A and Serie B have been indefinitely called off.

The Spanish first and second division leagues have been postponed for two weeks while the Champions’ League match between Barcelona and Napoli will likely be called off. The earlier decision has been to play the match behind closed doors, but the recent development is presenting an inevitable choice of postponement that UEFA may likely accept.

Meanwhile, both the Dutch Eredivisie and the Portuguese have both been suspended while the Ireland Football Association has announced the all football matches under its jurisdiction have been placed on hold until March 29.

French and German games will be played this weekend without fans. The English Premiership seems to be the only league in Europe that has not been entirely disrupted. But the Football Association announced on Wednesday that the game between Arsenal and Manchester City has been postponed as a precautionary measure.

In the US, the National Basketball Association (NBA) has suspended the league for the rest of the season as the number of cases and deaths keep rising.

Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix has been canceled after a member of the McLaren team tested positive and the boxing match between Shakur Stevenson and Michael Conlan’s has been forced behind closed doors.

With 133,181 cases and 4,950 deaths, the WHO has declared the outbreak a pandemic and discourages gathering of large crowds as a proactive measure to contain the surge.

Therefore, the UEFA meeting will likely result in suspension of the Champions League and Europa League, following the steps of other sports bodies around the world. Most cities in affected countries are banning the gathering of 500 people and above. The New York City Governor Cuomo has announced that the state is adopting that approach, which will make it impossible for sports activities to hold with spectators.

Sports analysts are calling for league bodies in Europe to call sporting events off, especially in the face of defiant attitude by the British government. Sports analyst Piers Morgan hit out at the British government on Thursday for allowing large gatherings to continue and sports events to continue.

“Britain is not closing schools, banning sports events, or stopping any large public gatherings. Little difference between the ‘contain’ & ‘delay’ phase,” he tweeted. “Yet so many other countries are doing all those things, including Ireland as from tonight. Why the contrary advice”?

Tekedia Mini-MBA Content Links

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Dear Sir/Madam,

Greetings. On Tekedia Mini-MBA, please note that contents go live at the digital board 12 noon Lagos time every Monday. I am sharing the last  five sessions below:

https://www.tekedia.com/week1/

https://www.tekedia.com/week2/

https://www.tekedia.com/week3/

https://www.tekedia.com/week4/

https://www.tekedia.com/week5/

This remains the best path to the contents – the digital board with new session added weekly https://www.tekedia.com/dboard/

As always, I am here for all your questions. After next week, we will have our first lab. Please note that next week will focus on capital markets, fundraising and investments. How do you prepare and hedge for coronavirus? Check out on Monday.

Regards,

Tekedia Team

tekedia@fasmicro.com


You can still register and join Tekedia Mini-MBA. Follow this instruction here.

This Time Is Different: Prepare Now (Updated: Quote of GMD, NNPC)

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Assignment for this weekend: no matter your position at work, I challenge you to use this weekend to think about your job security. Freeze that vacation and the big “toy” purchase. And this applies to government workers: you can be months off salaries in Nigeria. It has happened in Abia state where the government allowed some post-secondary schools to run out of cash – and naturally closed. Abia State College Of Education Arochukwu “natural” closure saw the workers losing their jobs! Add General Hospitals, you get the idea. Coronavirus will scale these paralyses and the next 3 months could be extremely challenging: conserve cash and prepare. Our markets are collapsing as NNPC notes.

In a statement in Abuja, Group Managing Director of the NNPC, Mallam Mele Kyari, who was speaking at the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Round Table discussion, also warned of serious economic challenges as a result of the falling crude oil price.

He called on government at all levels, captains of Industries and the organized private sectors to brace up for the new low regime of global crude oil prices, while he added that realistic estimates must be made to reflect the current realities of the crude oil market.

Despite the global downturn, Kyari, however, stated that the NNPC was working round the clock to increase the countries daily crude oil output to three million barrels per day and shore up the country’s crude oil reserves to 40 billion barrels.

With Europe feeling the pains of travel bans from godzilla America, you will laugh that even coronavirus can make big boys weep. Imagine someone telling German airlines that we do not want you in the U.S. because you are bringing in restricted cargoes! France, Italy and the rest look small today (they’re not happy). Trump does not care – and you cannot blame him because he took the oath to protect Boston, not Berlin!

“Non-Schengen and UK excepted: this is not about containment, this is about sending a political message. In a time where the EU is challenged to its core, the US is closing its borders and turning its back on allies,” tweeted Benjamin Haddad, director of the Future Europe Initiative at Atlantic Council.

Al Jazeera’s Laurence Lee, reporting from London, said: “The EU is absolutely furious about this, bewildered, and trying to work out what the ramifications are. They weren’t consulted apparently before Trump said this in the middle of the night, European time.

“They are trying to understand what it means. There are enormous concerns about trade between the EU and US.

This time is different: prepare. Whenever the Dow suffers like this – 7% off again today – mainstreets across the world see challenging times.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2,000 points Thursday morning after President Donald Trump’s long-awaited response to the coronavirus epidemic triggered a massive sell-off on Wall Street.

The S&P 500 plunged by 7 percent, triggering a circuit breaker, which halts all trading on the New York Stock Exchange for 15 minutes.

All three major averages sank after Trump’s Oval Office address Wednesday night failed to satisfy traders who were hoping for more concrete steps to allay any economic slowdown from the viral outbreak.

This is now the worst week for markets since the 2008 financial crisis, with trading halted twice on Thursday morning. The first time came after all three major averages sank below the 5 percent “limit down” marker in premarket activity

 

Coronavirus Attacks Bitcoin

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Bitcoin chart

In politics, we have polling legends. They are legends because they have figured out mechanisms to understand the voters.Because elections actually do have hard outcomes (yes, who wins), electoral polling is not an easy job. More than 90% of U.S. pollsters, experts in their domains, failed to predict the Presidency of Donald Trump. In practically anything else but election, they would remain correct because there would not have been a way to know the real mindsets of the voters or customers! So, those reports on consumer preferences, consumer trends, etc are all yo-yo because there is no way to know, absolutely! They could be right. But they could be wrong. And there is no clear way to make that call.

That takes me to cryptocurrency. As coronavirus shakes empires and territories, I have expected Bitcoin to rise up to its “promises”. Unfortunately, Bitcoin at the moment is under serious virus attack. Yes, the value of Bitcoin is falling just as stock markets are crashing.

The promise was this: Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies would be uncorrelated to main asset classes like stocks. So, in the days when stocks are falling, Bitcoin would be expected to hold firm, and that means NOT fail in value. As I write, Bitcoin has been falling just as stocks and with the partial disconnection of the U.S. from Europe (minus UK), announced by Trump last night, I expect Bitcoin to be under higher gravity.

The summary is this: people were unfair to Bitcoin by overselling this technology. As a means of exchange, Bitcoin and other cryptos have real values, but as a means to store value, I doubt. Under coronavirus, markets have validated that Bitcoin cannot store your value because Bitcoin is a source of liquidity and cannot be uncorrelated to main markets during crises. If your margin position in a stock is off, you can sell Bitcoin to cover the position and be at parity. Simply, Bitcoin becomes a liquid asset. Provided Bitcoin has that liquidity, its trajectory cannot be uncorrelated with main markets.

All Together

If we just decide to focus on the mission Bitcoin was originally created, as a means of exchange, not as an investment asset, the technology has a great promise. That is why I am all in for a stablecoin for Nigerian naira under the full control of Nigerians, pegged to the real naira, running a native blockchain with APIs to boost the sector by giving access to companies and startups to do trade and commerce in a transparent ecosystem. 

Bitcoin chart