Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is a highly ambitious business magnate that is building the world’s biggest single-train facility in Nigeria—the $9 billion Dangote Oil Refinery Company. Funded with $3 billion equity and $6 billion loan capital, the 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) oil refinery is enough to whet the appetite of local and foreign stakeholders who cannot wait for the plant to commence operations in 2020.

But far away in Saudi Arabia, investment analysts dressed in crisp shirts and fine ties on tailored trousers and shiny shoes from New York Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange Group Plc and Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd are pitching Saudi Aramco in what would be the oil giant’s first Initial Public Offering (IPO) after listing in Riyadh Stock Exchange begins on November 17, 2019. Arguably the most profitable company in the world, the Saudi-owned oil giant is planning a 5% ($100billion) IPO of its valuation after the Kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman valued the company at $2 trillion, a valuation deemed too high by equity analysts. 

The listing is reported as an attempt to raise capital to diversify the economy away from oil, which is logical considering that there has been a retrenchment in oil and gas spending in the Middle East since the past three years and a higher spending on power, particularly in gas generation and Solar PV, according to a report by the International Energy Agency. Similar spending pattern has been witnessed in sub-Saharan Africa, too – less oil and gas spending is offsetting small increase in renewables. 

In Nigeria, that in itself would not bother Dangote since the country is currently suffering paralysis in its own refineries, even as its four underperforming refineries combined together are operating at less than 50% of capacity, inefficient to meet the daily energy needs of over 200 million Nigerians. But when an oil giant like Saudi Aramco that raked in profits of $111 billion—more than the combined profits of Apple, Exxon Mobil Corporation & Amazon—in 2018 financial year picks the New York Stock Exchange as its Exchange for the IPO, what possible effect could this have on Nigeria’s black-gold business?

It would be instructive to first look at the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US. The 75-year alliance between the Saudi Arabia, the country that owns Saudi Aramco, and the US has been built on a simple arrangement that sees the US demanding Saudi oil and Saudi Arabia demanding American firepower. Saudi Arabia is the US’ second largest supplier of oil, but analysts have predicted that the emergence of the US as a major oil supplying nation indicates that it could be the biggest gainer in any disruption in global oil production. For instance, Saudi Arabia currently meets 20% of oil needs to India, and the quantity of oil imported by India from the US is a paltry 1% of the total country’s import. But deals sealed by the US with gas transportation company GAIL, oil marketing firm Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Indian Oil Corporation shows that the trend is shifting towards US shale, underscoring the relevance of the US in this Asian market.

Unarguably, the New York Stock Exchange would open up the oil giant to many investments, but so would it to regulatory scrutiny and other litigation issues too. Saudi Aramco has the “No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act 2019”, simply called NOPEC, to worry about. The bill puts OPEC member countries operating in the US at the risk of being prosecuted by the US government if they limit supply or fix oil prices. Saudi Aramco stands the risk of forfeiting its assets in the US, where it owns the largest oil refinery in North America, if found guilty. Assenting to listing in NYSE means that Saudi Aramco risks being exposed to volatility, and even steep falls, in the price of crude oil. In the midst of the concerns, however, the US Presidency is forward on his proposition to Saudi Aramco to list its shares in the US. If it assents, Saudi Aramco’s hedge against this crude price volatility risk may be to draw the White House to sign a deal where the US would make upfront payment of crude oil up to a date agreed by both parties.

Although speculative, but if this happens, in an industry where the economic outlook is muddy, it is likely to trigger similar moves by other oil-producing nations with high crude inventory to guarantee their sales and benefit their buyers with guaranteed supplies likewise—and this is not new in recent times; already, Indian Oil Corporation, India’s country’s top refiner, has signed its first annual deal to buy US oil in February, paying about $1.5 billion for 60,000 barrels a day up to March 2020. It is unlikely that Africa’s largest oil-producer, Nigeria, can guarantee such deals due to its unstable economic and political landscape. It is not with sentiments, therefore, that one would expect lots of volume purchase to go away from West Africa to the US where crude production is increasing, as Head of East of Suez oil for consultancy FGE in Singapore, Sri Paravaikkarasu opined.

Interestingly, Indian and Indonesian demands for Nigerian oil are currently what keeps the Nigerian oil market up, at the moment. Although the Nigerian crude oil is currently enjoying a honeymoon with Californian refiners, as light Nigerian oil is easily processed into higher octane gasoline increasingly used in the US and is offering support for the purchase from European refineries, it is foreseen that such romance may be over in 2020 when the market for marine gas-oil or very low-sulphur fuel oil reaches equilibrium. As Nigeria’s largest buyer, India, deepens its oil trade relations with the US, with that trend expected to continue in light of the above analysis, and as shale oil production and export continues to trend northward since US Congress’ lift on export ban on the oil, Nigeria’s oil inventory is argued to rise beyond normal levels. 

The Dangote Refinery is designed to process multiple grades of domestic and foreign crude, and is also poised to produce its own oil, the quantity put at about 20,000 barrels per day from oil blocks OML 71 and 72. But would the latter even be needed if the refinery’s capacity to meet the demands of local and global oil traders is inadequate? For the foreseen low oil prices and the accompaniment high crude oil inventory may cause oil-producing nations to trim the run rates of their refineries and seek oil products elsewhere. This is already happening with Saudi Aramco: traders from their trading arm are making enquiries about importing refined products, even as one million barrels of the company’s refining operations have been curtailed, releasing medium and heavy crude oil grades for export.

Perhaps the move by the Federal Government of Nigeria to officials of Saudi Aramco for investment in Nigeria’s moribund refineries and liquefied natural gas-producing company would yield fruits, and the promise of the Nigerian government to commence rehabilitation of the nation’s refineries by January 2020 will come to pass. If the recent discovery of oil in Northern Nigeria gives more urgency to this need, it is left for Dangote to decide whether all these points to a threat to, or an opportunity for his mega crude oil project.

Different reactions accompanied the court dismissal of the rape case filed by Busola Dakolo against Biodun Fatoyinbo. Twitter was divided into two major factions following this latest news. One faction saw the judgment as unfair while the second faction believed the verdict was justice at its best. In the midst of these reactions are lessons to be learnt.

#Lesson 1: Don’t go to court without enough evidence.

When Biodun Fatoyinbo was sued for raping Busola Dakolo 20 years ago, the first thing people around me asked was “does she have evidence”. Of course, even if there were evidence, 20 years is enough for it to be altered or completely destroyed.

A lot of good cases have been lost as a result of lack of evidence. We see this in Nigeria today, especially in the rural areas. For instance, in my village, there was this parcel of land in dispute. One of the parties claimed that the land belonged to their family but was given out on lease to the present occupant. So, they want the occupants to leave or buy the land at its current value. On the other side are the present occupants of the land, who claimed that the land was the collateral given to their grandfather when he lent money to its former owner. Since the borrower couldn’t pay, he forfeited the land as the loan repayment. However, there is no evidence of this transaction and the witnesses have all died off. Now both parties are threatening seeking legal action since umunna couldn’t resolve the issue. But then, what will be their fate in the court?

There are so many other people that easily seek legal actions without sitting down to ask themselves if they have tangible evidence to use. People need to remember that the court plays a different ball game altogether. They shouldn’t let their emotions take the best of them.

#Lesson 2: Court doesn’t grant revenge; it gives justice.

The second major reason Dakolo’s case against Fatoyinbo was struck out is that she sued him out of bitterness. She started by calling him out in the media. By the time she went to court, a lot of people have asked for Fatoyinbo’s head. This played against her because the presiding judge, Justice Oathman A. Musa, stated that her case was born out of cruelty and not from seeking justice. He saw the case as empty and sentimental.

As confusing as that assertion may be, it spelt out one thing – the court may not satisfy your thirst for revenge.

I believe Dakolo was called cruel because she raised so much dust before taking the matter to court. I’ve heard that things like this can affect court’s judgment. In other words, if you seek legal action for wrongs done to you, kindly refrain from making so much noise about it so you don’t appear “cruel”. At least, that’s how it is in Nigeria.

#Lesson 3: Don’t wait too long before going to court.

They called it “Statute barred”. Honestly, I didn’t know there is expiration date for offences, even in rape cases. However, the Dakolo-Fatoyinbo case has made it known that if something happens more than six years ago, it will no longer be valid for hearing in a court of law. This may sound inhuman but that’s how it is. So, obey it (my creditors, take note).

#Lesson 4: Judiciary is unsentimentally sentimental.

The first thing everybody will tell you about court of law is that the law knows no one and doesn’t play on sentiments. But I don’t think the judge was being unsentimental when he said Dakolo wasted the court’s time because that statement was emotionally constructed. Out of whatever emotion that gripped him then, he declared that Dakolo should pay Fatoyinbo the sum of one million naira, which should have been 10x more because she wasted the court’s time. Even if Dakolo lied against Fatoyinbo, there is no evidence to prove that. So, asking her to pay that amount of money was born out of sentiments, which is in favour of Fatoyinbo.

Secondly, it is wrong for a judge to tell someone that seek redress from the court that he wasted the court’s time. If not for anything, the court is there for the masses. It should give a listening ear to anyone that runs to it. Let me ask one more thing, will a judge tell the PDP presidential flag bearer that he wasted the court’s time because he rejected the presidential election result and took the matter to court?

#Lesson 5: Nigerian courts can’t handle rape cases.

A lot of people predicted that Dakolo will lose; and they have been proven right. The first person that told me that she will lose asked me if Fatoyinbo was caught in the act. According to this person, who happened to be a police officer, rape cases can hold water in Nigerian courts only in the following instances: if the rapist was caught in the act; if there are evidences such as torn clothes, pictures and video recordings; if the victim screamed during the act and people heard her; and if there are related bodily injuries and medical report indicating forced penetration.

This evidence will be hard to obtain because of several reasons. The victims’ screams would have been the easiest evidence to get if there is anyone willing to show up as a witness. Besides, most of these victims were muffled or threatened to comply with deadly weapons.

We know that a lot of rape victims do not come out to talk in Nigeria. Most of them bear the pain and take it to their graves. It will then be unfair not to find ways of granting these victims their much needed justice just because there is no concrete evidence or that it has passed the number of years that made it valid for hearing in a court of law. From what I can see, rape victims will withdraw deeper into their cocoons since the court of law has shown its lack of expertise in handling their cases.

Note that I am not insinuating that any of Dakolo or Fatoyinbo was saying the truth. What I’m after is that the court should have shown more expertise in the way it handled this case. It seemed so uncharacteristically quick to pass judgment. However, it’s good that Nigerian system has learnt to handle grave matters within a few months. This means there is hope for all the people awaiting trial while they rot in detention.

The Federal Government said on Friday it is looking for a legislated means to curb the menace of open defecation. We hope they build more public toilets across Nigerian cities.

Open defecation has grown to worrisome degree in Nigeria and there seems to be no end to it by the way it is going.

Therefore, the Federal Government has said an Executive Order shall be signed by President Muhammadu Buhari, to effect the punishment of individuals who have refused to use the toilet; a step it believed will help to eradicate the practice totally.

Nigeria has a 2025 national target of ending open defecation, according to the Minister of Water Resources, Suleiman Adamu, who told the press in Abuja, that the move is geared toward achieving that target. He said the Executive Order will instigate the needed discipline in Nigerians to promote good hygiene when it comes to defecation.

“In the national WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) action plan that we are promoting which the states are adopting, there is a provision for some legislation to be made against open defecation.

“And there is going to be an Executive Order signed by President Buhari to that effect, where there is a law against open defecation. Also, law enforcement agencies will do their bit.

“We need individuals and communities to have this behavioral change. It the responsibility of a household and for their well-being and dignity for them to imbibe the culture of building and looking for toilets to relieve themselves,” he said.

He also disclosed that the Federal Executive Council (FEC)has approved ‘use the toilet’ campaign, and it will be flagged off in commemoration of the World Toilet Day, come November 19, 2019. He added that idea is to educate the public on the ills of defecating openly.

“We are hoping that once the campaign gets into the mind of people, our job is done. So when the communities begin to see that this is not right, this behavior will change.

“Open defecation is a bad practice and should be stopped. We as governments at the federal and state levels have our own responsibility, where these facilities are not available we should make concerted efforts to provide an alternative,” he said.

In October 2019, Nigeria became the country with the highest number of people defecating openly, putting India to second place. It is estimated that over 50 million people in Nigeria practice open defecation; a situation that has been attributed to poor health and education, especially among children.

In 2014, the National Council of Water Resources prioritized the development of a roadmap towards eliminating open defecation, in line with United Nations global campaign to end open defecation.

With 2025, as target, the Roadmap provides a guide towards achieving an open defecation free country using many techniques that involve provision of sanitation facilities in public places; community led total sanitation; promotional and media campaigns; creating enabling environment; capacity building and coordination mechanism.

The Roadmap also provides the estimated cost of meeting the target by government of all levels and the private sector, in areas of construction of sanitation facilities in public and private places. The Roadmap also provides a basis for the development of the partnership for Expanded Water Supply and Sanitation (PEWASH) programme that was targeted at establishing multi-sectoral partnership between governments, development partners and the private sector.

They will all work to provide rural dwellers with adequate water supply to enable adequate hygienic attitude. The Federal Ministry of Water Resources will provide the enabling environment, leadership and coordination required in achieving this target by working with the communities, civil society, development agencies, the private sector and government at subnational levels.

It was upon this Roadmap that quest to end open defecation was established and launched in 2016.

To achieve the 2025 target, Nigeria needs to build 2 million toilets yearly, from 2019 to 2025, a task that will gulp estimated N959 billion. The government is expected to provide only about 25 percent of the fund, which is around N234 billion.

Head of WASH at UNICEF Nigeria, Zaid Jurji, said that the remaining 75 percent of the fund will be incurred by households.

“The majority of the costs to households will be spent on constructing toilets for those that don’t have them, while funds from the government will be spent on public projects including ensuring access to toilets facilities at public places,” he said.

As the campaign is set to take off on the 19th of November, lack of fund will pose a major challenge to the target. The campaign is mostly going to dwell on publicity and sensitization, since there is no fund to start the implementation of toilet building and water supply, especially in rural areas. The success of the 2025 target on open defecation in Nigeria depends mostly on the 75 percent of the needed fund that is expected to be raised through multi-sectoral partnership. Without the fund, people will have no alternative to open defecation, and no matter what the punishment by Executive Order may entail, the call of nature must be answered.