In 1958, the Chinese Government led by Mao Zendong ordered the killing of all Sparrows because they were eating from crops. As the killing started and Sparrows were nearly driven to extinction in China, there was a sudden surge in the number of locusts, and crops were devastated.

Nigeria is playing the Mao Zendong game, killing the Sparrows keeping our crops because of the little they are eating. Sooner or later there will be locusts invasion, and without the Sparrows, crops will be devastated.

The number of banned imported goods and services in Nigeria is rising daily at an alarming rate. From household items to wears, drugs and machines. The only explanation rendered each time there is such a ban or restriction of forex access to certain product or service is: “we need to encourage local production.”

In July, when the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced that milk has been added to the ever increasing list of banned or restricted items, the reaction of most Nigerians to the news was of criticism. Not because they don’t want local production of consumable goods, but because time has taught them that it’s a ‘window dressing’ that the masses will pay for however. Although the CBN issued a clarification statement saying that milk was not banned, in fact, the CBN has no such powers to ban milk. Nigerians know better.

Since 2015, the CBN has systematically brought the entire forex market under its control. This means that any item that is restricted from the ‘forex import access’ is as good as banned. It’s based on this knowledge that Nigerians are protesting the decision citing several other banned or restricted items that have not yield anything but economic hardship and consequently, hunger.

So far, there have been 43 items on the list of commodities restricted from accessing the Nigerian Foreign Exchange. The latest on the list, milk, speaks with voluminous concern. (Banned items count in hundreds) Although the Government has been partnering with local producers to encourage backward integration and conserve foreign exchange, only one company, frieslandCampina WAMCO has been able to implement its pilot Dairy Development Programme (DDP) across 90 communities in the South West.

There are other Farmers in the DDP programme, but they all have been able to contribute only 24, 045 litres of milk daily. A situation the Director General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadir, attributed to wrong cow breed and open grazing. He said that an average cow in Nigeria produces less than a liter of milk per day, whereas in other countries, milk cows produce 100 liters per day. He explained that the movement of cows from one place to the other is minimizing their production capabilities.

So it is apparent that the backward integration policy of the CBN is not going to yield good results anytime soon. Although it is a ten year programme, the indices are showing that it may take longer than that to materialize. And that means, the timing of the ban on milk importation is wrong. The Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr. Muda Yusuf, captured it well when he said that the CBN shouldn’t use Monetary Policy to address fiscal issues when the environment is not conducive for businesses. He stated:

“The starting point is to strengthen the capacity of domestic industries, enhance their competitiveness, and reduce their import dependence rather than using the same approach for all industries. The CBN’s approach is also affecting investments in the country. Farming is not the responsibility of the companies.”

Mr. Yusuf stated what many Nigerians already know. These bans and restrictions are doing more than killing competitiveness which is the backbone of any thriving economy. The CBN, through this policy is forcing milk producing companies to go into farming which is not their field. Raw milk production comes from Ranches, so it’s Farmers and Herders job. The processing companies should only collect the raw produce and process them for consumption. But when there is little raw milk to collect, and there is none coming from other countries due to the import restrictions, the demand gap widens, and the Nigerian people are at the receiving end.

The decision of the CBN to restrict forex access for milk importation has been widely criticized. Dr. kunle Hamilton, the Chief Executive Officer of Virgin Consulting Uk and a Consultant to a dairy multinational, described it as “using politics to make economic decisions.” He said:

“We need to consider that the manufacturers have always supported the decision to backwardly integrate, and that is why our members are exploring local sourcing of raw materials. However, stakeholders have to agree on the right step to take. The effects of such a decision need to be considered to ensure that artificial scarcity does not occur due to the inability to meet local demands.” He added

“There should be the right mix of measures and the right timing. There should be fair hearing from the stakeholders. The CBN should not carry out the action without adequately carrying manufacturers along.”

Unfortunately, the CBN didn’t do any of the above. However you look at it, it seems more reckless and political than economic. Not even the encouragement by the Apex Bank through soft loans can fill the loopholes. It’s a good economic intention aimed wrongly. Although the CBN claimed that the $1.2 billion being spent annually on milk importation is no longer sustainable, it’s just a minor fraction compared to oil. In the first 8 months of 2018, Nigeria spent N395 billion on fuel subsidy alone, and there is no discussion or policy in place to ban or restrict the forex for fuel importation just to encourage local production of oil.

The Dangote Factor

In 2017, the African richest man, Aliko Dangote, disclosed his intention to invest in milk production in Nigeria through the breed of 50, 000 cows. The plan was muted until two days ago when he announced his readiness to invest N288 billion in dairy products for the next three years. His aim is to produce 500 million liters of milk per year.

The news triggered scorning reaction from Nigerians. Many said it couldn’t have been a coincidence that the CBN is announcing the restriction on milk at the same time that Dangote is announcing his readiness to pump money into dairy production. Since 1999, Aliko Dangote has enjoyed monopoly from successive Governments in Nigeria. Stripping licenses off competitor importers or banning the importation of any goods that he is producing.

The N288 billion is a great deal of investment in dairy, but history has shown that monopoly is the bane of good economy. The monopolized treatment that Dangote has been enjoying has eliminated competition and made the cost of his products in Nigeria higher than other countries.

Economies don’t thrive by banning the importation of everything they produce. Economies don’t thrive by the elimination of competition through monopoly. The businesses that Nigeria is killing through her banning policy are the supporting pillars of the economy.

So before we kill all the Sparrows, let’s remember that there will be locusts.

When policies, schemes, articles, or papers  examine the adoption of renewable natural resources, for instance in the energy and power sectors, emphasis is laid mostly on its environmental or the macro-economic benefits. But consider: does the average human being wake up in the morning thinking about climate change or what new jobs will be created before he/she makes the buying decision of either a KJV generator or a solar kit?

The discontinuous availability of renewable natural resources, besides the relative high cost compared to their non-renewable alternatives, is one of the reasons for its limited adoption. Consumers favour non-renewable natural resources for the twin reason that they are dependable and cost-efficient. Hence, substituting renewables for non-renewables would need a recognition of these two elements. But the critical questions to ask are: how easily can this substitution happen? Are we prepared to finance the required growth of this reproducible capital by trading off short-term economic gains? What investment choices should be considered in promoting its sustainable use? 

First, we need to recognize the sustainability factor that the substitution of renewable natural resource source must happen but not at the expense of per-capita consumption today. This explains why some high-cost renewable energy projects have unintended consequences on the poor: the government blends the full cost for the renewable resource into market prices thus reducing purchasing power of consumers, or subsidies are given to consumers which reduces government’s revenue and subsequently expenditure in critical areas of the economy that benefit mostly the poor. Therefore, there needs to be a safety net in place. Secondly, another recognition needs to be given to the population factor as it affects the sustainability of renewable natural resources. For the per-capita consumption not to decrease as population increases, the non-exhaustible, non-depreciative factor of production for renewable technologies—knowledge—must increase at a faster rate. Put differently, human capital development is a sine qua non for sustainable renewable natural resource development. 

For ease of substitution of extractive resources with renewable natural resources, rural areas are the best target location at the moment. This is true not only because they have excess renewable natural resources, they also have the space which urban centres do not have. Also is because it is the best test for the sustainability element highlighted in the previous paragraphs, since rural areas are categorized by low-income households. And as is with most interventions in rural areas, the support of intermediate institutions with presence in these communities and the involvement of a large number of stakeholders is needed for putting this to work. For instance, local tertiary education institutions whose aim seek to provide alternative frameworks for rural development could be recruited as development partners in providing the human capital resource for the project, giving the faculties the opportunity for self-learning that is deep enough to spark interest into embarking on a similar development research project, whilst also increasing the share of local skills and expertise that benefit from the project. This would be particularly easy in Nigeria, now that some Nigerian universities are going off the national power grid to power themselves using renewable energy sources like solar. Definitive stakeholders like the government need not set overambitious targets that may lead to misallocation of scarce resources that do not bear any measurable impact on the economy.

For example, concession on investment in renewable natural resources is only beneficial if it is applicable to (in terms of innovation) relatively stable or mature renewable technologies that are less susceptible to innovation. Disruptive technologies come with marginal costs of transaction and distribution which inadvertently increases the overall cost of energy, thus reducing its social acceptance. Instead, the role of the government, I posit, is to throw in all the support it can towards these national and state educational institutions for research and development (R&D) benefits. Once a renewable natural resource utility model has been produced or can be replicated, they do not need to worry about the commercialization of the product or service, as investors, venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, and anyone who wants to make money would aggregate and inadvertently set up the structure required to scale the product or service.

A sustainable financing of the use of renewable natural resource is one of, if not, the biggest obstacle to its adoption because you want to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs and vice versa. Particularly for resource-extraction countries, I would suggest, from the Hartwick Rule of Weak Sustainability, that the net revenue from resource extraction be entirely invested into the development of renewable resource technologies than used for consumption purposes. But taking into account monolithic African economies who depend almost entirely on extraction resources for their national revenue, I would revise this and advise, instead, that at least the excess of the expected revenue from resource extraction be entirely invested into the development of renewable resource technologies. Norway is one of a few energy-exporting countries that have benefited immensely from this rule: starting in 1990 to set aside its revenue from oil & gas sales into the Norwegian Government Pension Fund, it grew its assets in the Fund to $1.09 trillion in July 2019, delivering the strongest ever return of 9.1% in first quarter 2019, crediting only the returns on the investment to the public purse till today.

If African economies applied the same, we would not just have funding for development of renewable technologies, we would also have grown our capital markets to a size large enough to compete well in global capital markets for investment opportunities [in renewable natural resources]. It is unfortunate to know some African businesses in Africa are valued more than others with higher asset base in the same continent just because they were listed on stock exchanges outside Africa. If we properly account for the accompaniment of other long-term benefits—like the potential for critical areas of the economy like education, healthcare, infrastructure—to develop because of this policy option, we may be able to surmount what political pressures may come our way.

To promote the sustainable use of renewable natural resources, the local economic benefits to the consumers need to be embedded in the inclusion or substitution strategy. I am currently serving as a research intern in the Social Performance department of a player in the upstream oil and gas industry in Nigeria, and one of my experiences here teaches me that managing the expectations of host communities is critical to the success of the business even though their expectation singly considered does not interfere with the operations of the business. Perhaps a peculiar case, it is not without a learning which is that consumers want to know what is in it for them before the whys—what the national or international policies has to say. Put differently, a demand needs to be met—and if it is not present, needs to be created in the consumers and met—otherwise the common incentive-driven approach towards specialization in renewable resources technologies may just be the only reason why the current deployment levels are where they are.

An approach could be integrating the deployment of renewable natural resource technologies with financial services. There is an opportunity here for telecommunication companies in Nigeria to leverage the existing policy by Nigeria’s apex bank, the Central Bank of Nigeria, to allow telecom companies to offer banking services. For instance, in the recent wave of the award of a financial services license to a subsidiary of MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, a partnership between the giant telecom company and companies deploying solar technologies could be modelled such that the lower of consumption amount and generation-consumption differential amount is converted to mobile money for the benefit of energy consumers. The money could be used for service requests like maintenance and repairs or for reducing the debt or cost of acquiring the technology, thus making the technology cheaper to sell. And if the renewable resource is dependable, like relatively mature technology like biomass energy, then, for rural areas, one can concentrate first on fully meeting the needs of the community before connecting to a grid for additional revenue stream. 

Finally, forward and backward integration of renewable natural resources with various sectors of the economy instead of the old approach of deploying only to the agriculture sector should be developed. While it may be difficult to assess the socio-economic impact of the renewable natural resources in clear terms, one or two variables in many of such linkages may satisfy that requirement. But one thing is clear: Africa has bright minds who would give deep introspection about these complexities. Acknowledging the human capacity [think-tank] of Africa is the first step towards the success of any development project in Africa.

A lot of people have expressed their admiration for Tony Elumelu and Tony Elumelu Foundation (TEF) for the opportunities they give to Africans to make their dreams a reality. A lot of people may think that all that TEF does is to give grants to entrepreneurs to start up or expand their businesses, but this foundation does more than that. A lot of people may think that all that TEF does is to give grants to entrepreneurs to start up or expand their businesses, but this foundation does more than that. I will explain this along the line.

I, on my own, admire Tony Elumelu because of the influence TEF has on African youths. I could remember so well my own experience as a TEF applicant and the changes that I had right after that. I was actually among the applicants in the maiden edition of this empowerment programme. I heard about the foundation through my younger sister, who strongly believes I have a lot to offer. I was sceptical about it because I knew about YouWin and the calibre of people that won the grant (during the Goodluck period). So I told myself, “Who are you to compete for something like this?” Well, to get my sister off my back, I went into the registration portal and almost ran back to my village (Lol). If you have ever opened this portal you will understand what I’m saying. Their scrutiny was just too much. But I wasn’t going anywhere because I had my darling sister waiting on me like a guillotine over my neck (sometimes we need people to push us, trust me). So I had to pass through this thorough examination, and I don’t regret doing that.

The first thing this exercise did was getting me to think of the problems in the society that I could solve. I found out that there are so many things that needed attention but I don’t really have the necessary expertise to handle them. The ones I could handle aren’t within my immediate environment (I was in Nassarawa State then). So, I turned my attention to the farmers whose produce were either wasting or were being stolen because of lack of storage facilities and shortage of middlemen. I applied to be an African food items exporter (yes o, this small me dreaming of how to compete with Golden Penny and Dangote). I didn’t get the grant, but it was such an interesting exercise, really. Everyone needs to try it.

Like I noted earlier, TEF does so much for African youths. It is not just about the grant, there is something else about that foundation that needs to be pointed out. While filling the application form, I was less than 30 years old but I felt some heavy responsibilities placed on my tender shoulders. I kept asking myself, “What if you get this grant, can you actually do all these?” Somehow, I told myself that there is no way someone will release this sort of money to me without giving me some kind of trainings and supervision. Anyway, based on my experience with the registration exercise, I can reliably state that TEF has been able to do the following for the African youths irrespective of whether they won the grants or not:

1. Access to Funds: A lot of African youths have very wonderful ideas that are killed by lack of funds. But TEF has given them hope. Though not all can get access to the grants, it’s worth dreaming of. Believing that one day you will have someone that will sponsor your dream fuels the desire to dream bigger.

2. Development of Critical Thinking Skills: With TEF most African youths are beginning to sharpen their thinking skills. When I was trying to fill out the application form, my mind was going haywire trying to find what to go for and how to make it work. This is not an opportunity that easily comes to youths around here.

3. Leadership Training: TEF encourages youths to go for things that will create more jobs. When a youth starts to think of himself as an employer, he will be compelled to develop his leadership skill. Being a boss can only happen if one is a leader.

4. Development of Problem Solving Skills: The type of businesses that are encouraged by TEF are those that solve problems existing in the African communities. These applicants have to identity the needs in their societies and then think of feasible ways of providing them.

5. Development of Entrepreneurial Skills: TEF makes it known that it is not just enough to set up a business. That business has to make profits, expand and, if possible, grow some branches. In other words, as applicants are thinking of businesses to register for, they have to think of how to make them profitable.

6. Equal Opportunities for All: I couldn’t remember TEF awarding grants based on tribe, religion, age (minimum of 18 years and no maximum age), or education level. This is one thing that appeals to me so much about that foundation. So, the youths know that all they need to do is have something that meets the demands of the foundation – be an African, business is located in Africa, be innovative, bring business that will create jobs and solve problems.

7. Mentoring: TEF knows that these youths may not be able to manage the funds if given to them immediately or even given as loans. So it gives out grants after the entrepreneurs have been trained. The good thing about grants is that the beneficiaries will be supervised by their benefactors until a certain period of time. This way, some mistakes that these youths could have made will be averted through expert advices from TEF. The hope of having mentors keeps a lot of people going.

Well, recently, I couldn’t help wondering so many ‘what ifs’. For example, “What if we have so many Tony Elumelus that will give us many TEFs in Nigeria, or even Africa?” “What if about one hundred thousand youths were empowered every year through this type of foundation?” “What if the rich Nigerians decide to give back to the society through a programme like TEF?”

Alright, I know Nigerian banks put up adverts every now and then about sponsoring SMEs, but do Nigerians really trust their banks? A lot of Nigerians see banks as Draculas that are out to suck their victims dry. They don’t believe any bank will help you unless it wants something big in return. So, let our banks give our young inventors and entrepreneurs the reasons to trust them before I will count them among our hopes.

Anyway, I believe Nigeria is blessed with a lot of people who can do for Nigerians what Tony Elumelu is doing for Africans today. Some of them do, I believe, but it is usually within their native communities and religious organisations. If these people can be encouraged to come out and reach out to all Nigerians, just as Elumelu does (even though he considers Africa as a whole), their impacts will be much felt. If they are already doing that, more publicity should be created so that everyone will know about it.

I equally believe that one doesn’t have to be rich before one can perform feats like this. Entrepreneurs can also come in here. They can partner with young innovative minds. This will then be like a business partnership – you know, the I-have-the-capital-you-have-the-expertise kind of partnership. I know that a lot of arrangements like this are on-going within the country, but there are so many youths out there who don’t have anyone to tell them about it. So, I’ll suggest that these entrepreneurs should publicise their intentions and that social media platform should be created as a meeting point for inventors and investors only.

So, I’ll say, we need many Tony Elumelus in Nigeria. I can’t just imagine what it will be like if more than one hundred thousand youths are empowered every year. This isn’t impossible. All we need is just more and more Tony Elumelus and Tony Elumelu Foundations.

Someone I know was looking for advice on what next to do going forward, as he was at a crossroads considering a career switch, which he wasn’t sure was in his best long-term interest. The advice he received from a trusted motivator was “follow your heart”.

I  have heard this phrase a lot of times, and it seems to be the only available piece of advice for people in desperate times. Contemplating between studying medicine or playing football “follow your heart”, thinking of whether to quit your job or not “follow your heart”, thinking of which business to start “follow your heart”.

As a kid, I loved candies and ice cream. I’m glad I didn’t follow my heart in that. There are so many things we love to do that aren’t actually good for us. What then should we do? The availability of this phrase in visually every facet of life today is a pointer to what is actually going on deep down inside, in this age of information . In other words, sentiments supersede rationality and quotes supersede thoughts . These scenarios play out in two forms:

1. Sentiments Vs. Rationality
2. Knowledge Vs. Reasoning

Sentiments Vs. Rationality

Someone once said this to me, “look people will forget what you did for them, but will never forget how you made them feel”. I understand why he said that. I mean who doesn’t want to feel good? But should that be the driving factor behind our evaluation of things and events?

Just imagine for a moment, that you have been stranded on an island for days. After a long wait, a group of nice gentlemen, about five in number, well built and capable of building a boat, came along and said nice words of encouragement and walked away with smiles on their faces, meaning that you have to wait longer before leaving the island.  And then after a long wait, a scruffy looking old man wearing a long face walks by and without even exchanging pleasantries, he began building a boat, and when he was done, he just left you the boat and went his way. What you feel in these two scenarios will depend on which one had a greater impact on you based on your immediate need. Yes, the emphasis should be on need. That which solves a need should have greater value, or do you think otherwise?

Not long ago, a video of a teacher went viral on LinkedIn .The teacher was shown to have very close rapport with the students. She had a unique multiple styled  handshake with which she greeted each one of her students . There was another instance where a teacher was seen teaching trending dance moves to his students. It does make them happy,  doesn’t it? What about a teacher whose students all perform well on the subject he teaches, without making it fun. Who is a better teacher? This is not trying to imply that the first two teachers cannot produce high performing students, but this is directed at asking the question – “what should be the criteria for measuring their contributions”? Results or Feelings?

To answer this question, we need a clear definition of purpose. If I hired a carpenter to fix my roof, what exactly should I use as a criteria to measure his success or failure?  It would be irrational if I judged him by anything other than that for which he was hired, and for which he is paid. If this is true, then it will be consistent if I say that the teacher whose students perform better in his subjects is the better teacher even though this may not fit in into the growing narrative.

I know a man who has been struggling to pass his professional exams; he said he has been made to feel good by many tutors who were more interested in not breaking his ego by not exposing his areas of weakness. But only a tutor who made him not feel so good actually helped him to eventually pass his exams. Ironically many excellent professionals have been left out because they do not possess the flair of sentimentality. 

Knowledge Vs Reasoning

I asked someone a question, and he answered with a quote; I replied by telling him that quotes are not universal truths, that they represent the opinion and state of mind of whoever created  the quote. Yet, he replied with another quote. I am not against quotes as I use them a lot, but we should understand what they really are. People don’t seem to be interested in why things happen, they are only  interested in the end product. Like secondary consumers of the by products of cognitive reasoning, leading to a society massively chasing end products with nobody interested in the process leading to them. We love petrol, but hate to refine crude oil,  we love front end design software, but hate analysis and coding.

So this has led to a system where Hiring Managers are dismissing qualified candidates, because they did not cram and quote the expected stereotypical answers to their questions. A system where the teacher of the year is likely going to be one who makes the students laugh.  A system where a lot of processes are taking place at the expense of reasoning. Next time before you drop that quote, pause for a moment and do a little thinking. Also before you follow your heart, ask yourself this question,”is my feelings more important and representative of what is in my overall best interest”?  If your answer is yes, then you know exactly what to do.