Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally to 21.88% in July 2025 from 22.22% in June, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The moderation marks a continuation of the downward trend in the year-on-year headline figure, which now sits 11.52 percentage points lower than the 33.40% recorded in July 2024.

The bureau attributed part of this significant year-on-year drop to a technical factor: the adoption of a new base year, November 2009 = 100. This statistical recalibration reduced the magnitude of the annual inflation rate even as consumers still grapple with high living costs.

On a month-to-month basis, however, inflation ticked higher. July’s 1.99% month-on-month rate exceeded June’s 1.68%, indicating that prices are still rising faster than they did a month earlier. NBS noted that this reflects an increase in the average price level during the month.

Over the twelve months ending July 2025, the average CPI rose by 25.65%, which is 5.11 percentage points lower than the 30.76% recorded over the same period last year.

Urban and Rural Price Trends

In Nigeria’s cities, inflation stood at 22.01% year-on-year in July, down sharply from 35.77% in the same month of 2024. Urban prices rose by 1.86% on a month-to-month basis, a slowdown from June’s 2.11%. The twelve-month urban average was 27.04%, lower than the 32.89% recorded in July last year.

In rural areas, inflation was 21.08% year-on-year in July 2025, a decline from 31.26% in July 2024. However, rural prices accelerated sharply on a monthly basis, rising 2.30% compared to June’s 0.63%. The rural twelve-month average was 23.84%, down from 28.86% a year earlier.

Food Prices Still Pressuring Households

Food inflation — the category most felt by households — dropped significantly in annual terms, from 39.53% in July 2024 to 22.74% in July 2025. The NBS cautioned that part of this steep drop is also due to the base year change rather than purely market-driven declines.

Month-on-month, food prices eased slightly, rising 3.12% in July compared to 3.25% in June. The modest slowdown was attributed to lower prices for vegetable oil, beans, local rice, maize flour, guinea corn, wheat flour, and millet. The twelve-month average food inflation rate stood at 26.97%, down from 36.36% in the same period last year.

Core Inflation and Persistent Cost Pressures

Core inflation, which strips out volatile agricultural produce and energy costs, came in at 21.33% year-on-year, down from 27.47% in July 2024. On a month-to-month basis, core inflation rose just 0.97%, a sharp deceleration from June’s 2.46%. The twelve-month core average was 23.63%, slightly lower than 24.65% a year earlier.

Why Inflation is Falling but Nigerians Don’t Feel It

Analysts told Nairametrics that while improved domestic food supply, relative exchange rate stability, and moderating energy costs are helping to sustain the downward trend, structural cost drivers remain entrenched. Persistent transportation bottlenecks, high borrowing costs, and weak infrastructure continue to push up production and distribution expenses.

Vice Chairman of Highcap Securities, Professor David Adonri, noted that the ongoing harvest of staple crops such as maize, yam, and cassava should boost market supply and bring short-term relief to consumers. However, he cautioned that seasonal improvements will not resolve underlying inflationary pressures without deeper reforms in agriculture, energy, and trade logistics.

The marginal slowdown in inflation also comes against a backdrop of public skepticism. Despite the statistical improvement, many Nigerians say they have not seen any tangible relief in markets, where goods and services remain prohibitively expensive.

Economists are now calling on the Central Bank of Nigeria to consider a gradual reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to ease borrowing costs and stimulate production, though the apex bank is expected to tread cautiously to avoid reigniting price pressures.

Understanding The Rebase-fueled Decline

Nigeria’s inflation path since 2023 is a tale of three phases: a sharp upswing through mid-2024, a plateau at very high levels, and a statistically aided step-down in 2025. The initial surge began after the mid-2023 policy resets, fuel subsidy removal, and FX market changes, pushing headline inflation steadily higher through late 2023.

By early to mid-2024, year-on-year inflation was running in the low-to-mid-30s, with July 2024 printing 33.40%. That period marked the peak zone of the cycle as food, transport, and imported components fed through with limited offsets from supply-side improvements.

From late 2024 into early 2025, momentum cooled on a year-on-year basis, but the absolute price level stayed elevated. Two things helped temper the annual rate: base effects as the very high prints from 2023/24 rolled out of the comparison window, and pockets of improved domestic food supply that softened the worst monthly spikes.

The more visible break came in 2025 when the National Bureau of Statistics adopted a new CPI base year (November 2009 = 100) and updated expenditure weights and product samples. Re-basing does not cut prices; it re-anchors the index to a new reference period and refreshes how the basket mirrors household spending. When weights shift toward items rising more slowly, or previously overweighted fast-rising items are corrected, the measured year-on-year rate can ease even if month-to-month pressures persist.

That is why July 2025’s headline rate of 21.88% sits a full 11.52 percentage points below July 2024’s 33.40%, even as monthly inflation accelerated to 1.99% from 1.68% in June. The annual decline shows the combined impact of re-basing, softer comparators, and some supply improvements. The monthly pickup shows that price pressures have not vanished and that households still face a rising cost of living.

Business circles across Africa are viewing Nedbank Group’s decision to sell its 21.22% stake in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) as a natural evolution in both banks’ strategic priorities.

Many industry analysts say the move is mutually beneficial — allowing Nedbank to sharpen its focus on its home markets in Southern and Eastern Africa, while ushering in a new phase of growth for Ecobank under a shareholder deeply rooted in its history and committed to its expansion.

The deal, announced on Friday by ETI in a filing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), will see Bosquet Investments Ltd., the private investment vehicle of former ETI Chairman Alain Nkontchou, acquire the stake from Nedbank. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals. Enko Capital Management LLP is acting as the lead advisor, with Absa Bank Limited’s Corporate and Investment Banking division serving as co-financial advisor.

Nedbank’s 2008 Entry into Ecobank

Nedbank first entered Ecobank’s shareholding in 2008 during the height of the global financial crisis, when African banks were exploring cross-border synergies to boost resilience and market reach. The South African lender invested around US$500 million in a strategic alliance with ETI. The partnership aimed to create a pan-African banking network that could serve clients seamlessly across both Southern Africa — Nedbank’s stronghold — and Ecobank’s West and Central African footprint.

Under the alliance, the two banks referred clients to each other, collaborated on trade finance, and provided joint services to multinational corporations operating across Africa. For years, the relationship was held up as a textbook case of African banking integration.

Strategic Shifts Leading to the Exit

However, in recent years, Nedbank has been recalibrating its priorities amid changing market dynamics and regulatory pressures. The group’s recent strategy update has emphasized deepening its presence in Southern and Eastern Africa, where it holds majority control of its operations, rather than maintaining large equity positions in markets where it has no operational control. Analysts say the exit from ETI reflects this sharper focus on geographic and operational consolidation.

For Ecobank, the move comes at a time when the pan-African lender has been pursuing its “Growth, Transformation, and Returns” strategy under CEO Jeremy Awori, with renewed emphasis on digital banking, SME financing, and strengthening profitability after a period of restructuring.

Alain Nkontchou, founder of Bosquet Investments, said he was “very pleased” to have reached this stage with the Ecobank Group, pledging to support the bank’s strategic ambitions and expressing confidence that the institution would “seize the opportunities ahead and lead the organization into a new era of sustained success.”

Awori welcomed Bosquet Investments as a “significant shareholder,” describing the transaction as “a strong vote of confidence” in Ecobank’s trajectory.

“This important milestone reflects a deep and enduring commitment to our Group’s growth and success. Their investment is a strong vote of confidence in our Growth, Transformation, and Returns strategy, our performance, and our people,” Awori said.

He paid tribute to Nkontchou’s leadership since joining the board in 2014 and serving as chairman from 2020 to 2024, a period in which Ecobank returned to profitability. Awori also extended “deep appreciation” to Nedbank for a “constructive partnership” over 17 years, noting they remain “a valued commercial partner.”

About Bosquet Investments

Bosquet Investments Ltd. is the private investment vehicle of Alain Nkontchou. Beyond his Ecobank role, Nkontchou is co-founder and managing partner of Enko Capital, an African-focused asset management firm managing about US$1.2 billion in alternative and traditional funds across the continent.

If regulatory approvals proceed smoothly, this deal will mark one of the most significant shifts in Ecobank’s shareholder base since Nedbank’s landmark 2008 investment — closing one chapter of South Africa–West Africa banking collaboration while opening another built on insider commitment and pan-African ambition.

In Nigeria’s oil sector, Oando Plc, an indigenous energy giant, is making headlines with a major shareholder reward initiative. The company has completed the first tranche of its planned share distribution, allocating 679,364,206 fully paid shares to eligible investors in what the company describes as a strategic move to deliver long-term value.

The allocation marks the completion of the first phase of a two-stage distribution involving a total of 1,283,712,601 shares, a plan approved by Oando’s Board of Directors in January 2025. The process stems from a settlement arrangement ratified at the company’s 45th Annual General Meeting in December 2024, where shareholders agreed to surrender a portion of their holdings for redistribution. Shares were earmarked for allocation on a pro-rata basis, ensuring that investors benefited in proportion to their existing stakes.

The first tranche, launched on February 14, 2025, was completed after receiving regulatory clearance in July. Under the plan, shareholders received one fully paid share for every twelve they already held, representing an 8.3 percent yield based on the prevailing market price at the time. The second tranche will be allocated to investors on record as of June 30, 2025, with details to be announced in the coming months.

Commenting on the development, Oando’s Group Chief Executive, Wale Tinubu, CON, described the initiative as a demonstration of the company’s “unwavering commitment to delivering tangible value to our shareholders.” He noted that the issuance came with no dilution to existing holdings, effectively increasing investors’ stakes without requiring additional capital.

For shareholders, the distribution not only boosts ownership but also offers the potential for future value appreciation, particularly if the company maintains strong performance.

From a corporate perspective, Oando sees the move as an opportunity to optimize its share structure, manage outstanding shares, reinforce investor loyalty, and ensure compliance with regulatory requirements. The company has encouraged any eligible shareholders who have not yet received their first tranche allocation to contact its registrar and update their records.

The distribution forms part of Oando’s broader strategy to streamline operations and strengthen its capital base, a plan aligned with resolutions from an Extraordinary General Meeting held on August 12, 2025, to address capital diminution. At that meeting, shareholders reviewed measures in accordance with Section 137 of the Companies and Allied Matters Act, 2020, aimed at reducing the company’s capital for the 2024 financial year.

The EGM came on the heels of Oando’s 46th Annual General Meeting earlier the same day, where a series of ordinary and special resolutions were approved. Among the key decisions was authorization for the company to raise up to N500 billion in fresh capital, a move seen as essential to funding growth initiatives and navigating market volatility.

With the first phase of the share distribution now complete, attention will turn to the execution of the second tranche later this year and the potential impact of Oando’s capital-raising efforts on its market position. For investors, the company’s latest moves signal a strong bid to balance shareholder rewards with long-term growth ambitions.