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Interswitch Begins a New Era in Nigerian Retail Banking

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Over the last eighteen months, I have noticed a clear architectural redesign in the Nigerian banking sector. Our banks are increasingly playing at higher levels with innovations in the mobile space. While new fintech (financial technology) companies continue to focus on payment and remittance sub-sectors, a new dimension has also started emerging. With Paylater,ng and Piggybank, we now have startups providing small loans to Nigerians without deep collateral burdens. Depending on how you see it, these startups are pioneering a new age in Nigeria’s financial sector: a credit-based economy.

The decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Bankers Committee to establish the Bank Verification Number (BVN) is producing a clear virtuoso moment in the banking sector. While Nigeria may not have the equivalent of the U.S. FICO score which scores citizens’ credit worthiness, we do now have histories of financial transactions of citizens via NIBSS (Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System Plc). This makes it easier to take lending risks with these citizens, even without collateral as you can easily model their re-payment capacities. Prior NIBSS and BVN, our banking industry had no memory of these transactions even though they were occurring.  The push to cashless society by the central bank is a strategy that is going to pay positively for Nigeria  in many ways.

Paylater with the CBN certification has access to BVN of customers. It is possible that it evaluates credit worthiness through data pooled from NIBSS (Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System Plc) which handles transaction details of Nigerian bank customers. .

With the knowledge of the citizens’ financial transactions, small credits can be given to them. I also believe that the companies will also build credit profiles of these citizens as they take the loans and repay. Though there is no national harmonized system for this, BVN provides a trusted apparatus to leverage to build credit-based solutions.  This is still at infancy, but the foundations are very noticeable to any ardent observer: the dawn of a credit-based economy is being built right now in Nigeria.

A New Era in Nigerian Banking

One of the most important companies in Nigeria in the area of digital banking is Interswitch. Interswitch is now taking action to take advantage of its position in the sector and lead the acceleration of what Paylater and Piggybank are doing. The Nigerian digital payment pioneer is working with six banks and three startups to begin a new era in Nigerian banking sector. The banks will provide the data while the startups will help deliver the products. Interswitch will stay at the back to make sure the data integrity is there. It will also over time build the credit score. The product is named Interswitch Lending Services (ILS). ILS is a very powerful product in the Nigerian financial sector which can bring many citizens into the sector through micro-lending and financial inclusion.

To bridge the gap in accessing unsecured short-term micro-loans in Nigeria, Interswitch in partnership with six lending banks and three innovative credit providers has introduced a lending services platform.

The lending platform, named Interswitch Lending Services, is an intervention, which essentially resolves the challenge by providing credit analysis and scoring based on customer historical transaction data which bank and non-bank credit providers can leverage to provide collateral free micro and nano loans to individuals and small businesses across the channels

This is going to become the most important product Interswitch will be launching. I do expect ILS to be bigger than the present Interswitch, and over time, may have the present Interswitch folded into it. If the company executes this well, it will have the most important product in the Nigerian financial sector. Nigeria’s credit sector is untapped and any leader that pioneers it will reap huge benefits.

Interswitch has accumulated capabilities with products like Verve (credit: pulse)

It is starting with FirstBank, UBA Bank, Heritage Bank, Unity Bank, Fidelity Bank and Ecobank. The lending partners are Paylater, Kwikcash and Ferratum. I expect the pool of the banks to expand in coming months. There is no need for a bank to be outside this league. Yes, it needs to cover all the banks. Provided it is working with NIBSS, ILS can have a very good view of any Nigerian banking customer, preparing the data for the lending partners to make loan. Possibly, the partner banks will have only their customers participating initially.

The Interswitch Tax

ILS is leapfrogging here with no need for brick-and-mortar credit system, moving immediately to the digital-first domains. Internet is going to anchor this vision with the unbounded distribution channels it offers. This makes this product scalable. ILS will serve as an aggregator of data. ILS is a pure aggregation construct business with a high scalable advantage. It aggregates data created by banks and using that data to package a product used by the lending partners. With Internet, the marginal cost of this business goes low which makes it extremely scalable, for Interswitch. As it accumulates more data, ILS gets better and grows. This becomes a positive continuum. The end result is a virtuoso circle of innovation that will have implications in the Nigerian banking sector especially in the retail space. All banks will join and just like that Interswitch  Lending Service will become the national credit bureau. With that, everyone will pay Interswitch tax, to tap into that data. ILS may consider some of my suggestions as it becomes a vehicle for the new financial system of Nigeria.

The alignment of the interests of the banks, credit bureaus and citizens will be catalytic in establishing a functioning credit ecosystem in Nigeria. This is not included in the current CBN’s guidelines for establishing credit bureaus in Nigeria. We cannot do it the way the Americans have done it. We need a system that provides a citizen element so that credit bureaus have clear incentives to deliver good services. You cannot be selling people’s data and yet have no incentives to serve the people and protect their data. With this proposed model, the oligopolistic system that runs in the credit bureau industry will be dismantled in the Nigerian model. The outcome will be a virtuoso credit bureau system that secures customers data as it serves its core customers, the banks.

The Aggregator-Bank

With the use of BVN, in future, loans can be offered to non-bank customers. All ILS has to do is to synchronize the BVN of a customer with its phone data. And through the phone, it can even offer loans. So, you can see people getting small loans delivered through their mobile phones with phone/recharge card agents becoming cash agents. The key thing here is the availability of data which provides deeper insights. Banks are not necessarily critical to execute this, though they will be important to initiate it. Interswitch makes that clear in its statement when it noted that “non-bank lenders” can be supported. If Interswitch can effect the loans to non-bank customers, it simply means that it is indeed a bank! But a better bank without the burdens of capital adequacy and financial ratios usually imposed by the regulator, the CBN.  Sure, Interswitch is already an entity registered and regulated by CBN, but of course, not as a bank.

The solution focuses on enhancing financial inclusion by providing a tested and reliable end-to-end credit administration infrastructure, which is open and flexible enough to accommodate both bank and non-bank lenders.

The Platform has been integrated by Interswitch to what is perhaps the largest customer database, allowing almost 16 million Nigerians (which includes active customers on Quickteller) to be assessed for possible qualification for a loan. Interswitch had formed strategic partnerships with a number of credit providers to efficiently target customers who are available on those partner platforms, offering nano-loans at attractive interest rates and based on available credit history and predictive analytics through information technology to determine credit-worthiness

Under the aggregation construct, the lenders take the risks. Others supply the data; ILS simply aggregates and packages the data. This positions this company to become one of the most important firms in the nation in coming years. Interswitch is playing at the upstream here, relying on its downstream partners in the Interswitch ecosystem and 16 million people in its database. It has a brilliant vision.

The $1 Billion Business

Interswitch is now moving on its vision to become a truly indigenous unicorn, technology-enabled business with at least a billion dollar in valuation. I do think an effective execution of this business model will put it in that league. ILS will not just grow revenue; it will also bring more customers to the Interswitch ecosystem. Watch out for growth in Interswitch associated debit cards, quickteller and businesses of its bank partners. People will begin to make decisions on how they can be in ILS network in order to build histories that will qualify them for loans. The company will execute this growth at largely minimal risks. The lending partners take the risk but benefit through expanded access to higher pool of customers. The banks will also get a cut for providing the data. Over time, I expect some of the banks to open their own micro-lending products to compete with Paylater and others. At the moment, the business may be small for the cost model the banks can effectively serve. For the banks to play here, especially in the sub-one million naira credit services, they will need to build new ways of doing things. They will have to become more digitalized to save business costs,  and serve customers who are usually not within their crosshairs.

All Together

Interswitch has accumulated capabilities in the digital payment sector over the last few years. Now, it is unleashing that data, creating new products. Interswitch has the capability to change the basis of competition in the Nigerian banking sector. That will be transforming and disruptive. It is at the edge of a smiling curve and is just getting started. When companies accumulate capabilities, they see themselves operating in the segments of markets with higher value (usually upstream) compared with where their lower-end competitors operate (usually downstream). In the Nigerian financial sector, Interswitch has moved upstream and is extremely positioned to control most elements of the financial systems with the data it controls.

The internet business is not necessarily who generates the most data. It is who can make sense of it. Aggregators like Interswitch are at the centers making sense of all the data passing through the financial system. Google does that for our web businesses. It waits for us to create the contents. It then aggregates them and serves them to its customers and advertises, abstracting the content creators. Facebook does the same to our photos and feeds, providing a platform for us to post them. It then serves them to our friends and families. Because the data is too much, the value is not really about who has the most data, but who can make sense of the data which is constantly changing in volume, variety and velocity. That is where Interswitch has an advantage over the banks as it can see everything going through its networks from multiple players. You may decide to work with First Bank or GTBank, but those will give you a partial view of the data. Interswitch delivers more and that is why we do not visit BBC or New York Times for major news, we go to Google which then curates and prepares the best content for us. Google has access to all new networks in the world, making sense of the best to serve you. BBC and NY Times are limited even though they could be one of the companies Google will have as destinations. The BBC and NY Times have been abstracted out by Google. Today, Interswitch is doing same for the banks when it comes to retail lending. NIBSS seats at even a better position than Interswitch since all BVN banking data go through NIBSS.

I am so happy for this Interswitch strategy. I wrote many months ago that it should buy Unity Bank to get into lending. It has simply done it in a better way without spending any money. Also, it is not taking any risk. But it is clearly seeding a new era in the Nigeria’s financial sector.

Interswitch should acquire a lending license from Unity Bank. That will help it begin to build a credit system in Nigeria in partnership with NIPSS. Post-acquisition, it will focus on digital banking, closing some branches of Unity Bank and dedicate its efforts to build Nigeria’s first internet-only bank. Through this, the bank will use the data from its ecosystems to perfect lending systems which will help drive it growth.

With small blessing from NIBSS, it provides a clear roadmap to the future of Nigeria’s credit-based economy. The hangover is over, this digital pioneer is back and that is a good thing for Nigeria.

TStv’s Goliath Challenge of DStv

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TStv

TStv, a new pay TV company, is beginning a journey to challenge the largest company in Africa by market valuation. Naspers which owns MultiChoice operates the DStv brand across sub-Saharan Africa. DStv is a digital satellite TV service which leads its category in the region. It is well funded by South Africa’s Naspers which has a valuation of $100 billion.

DStv (Digital Satellite Television) is MultiChoice’s digital satellite TV service in Sub-Saharan Africa, launched in 1995, providing various bouquets offering general entertainment, movies, lifestyle & culture, sport, documentaries, news & commerce, children, music, religion and consumer channels to MultiChoice subscribers.

So TStv wants to challenge DStv. It will be a battle. Clearly, TStv is the underdog in this game and it will be an epic show. Naspers has crushed any challenger in this space and it combines to dominate the nearly 23 million subscriber pay TV market in Africa. TStv is coming with the following:

  • Affordable every man and woman pricing: It believes that it can peel off the subscribers from DStv by pricing more competitively. DStv is a premium platform but it is relatively expensive. TStv thinks it can deliver great service at better price to get customers to switch.
  • It has government support: The Nigerian government is on board, promising a tax break within the first three years. This is typical for any creative industry participant. But meeting the requirements is not necessarily easy.
  • Savvy marketing: TStv understands the game. It has done more to get a buzz of its products through clever marketing than most that came before it. That may be its strength as it begins this uphill battle to take on Africa’s most valued company.

The Strength of DStv

For me, I do think the biggest asset in DStv in Africa is sports. I know that it has control over most European league broadcast agreements in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria. For the very fact that it controls Premier League (England) and Spanish League (La Liga), many people will stay with it. In short, I expect more than 40% to stay because of these TV rights. That is the challenge for TStv. How are you going to break into the party without sports? Nigerians love sports.

DStv is a tested brand in pay TV and commands the lion share of the market controlling 11 million subscribers in the 23 million subscriber- sector. Nigeria’s is a key market with 4.4 million customers. DStv has deep contents including entertainment and it continues to invest massively with its war chest as a very rich company.

Naspers Limited’s payTV and entertainment unit, DSTV has disclosed that it has it has a total of 11 million subscribers across Africa. The disclosure was released to media experts across Africa to promote DSTV’s media and sales offerings to advertising and media agencies.

DSTV’s subscriber base grew by 8% year on year from 10,2 million to the current figure. Nigeria leads its African footprint with 40% of the total subscriber base. By implication, DSTV and GoTV put together have 4.4 million subscribers in Nigeria.

Out of the 11 million subscriber base, GoTV, DSTV’s extended subsidiary catering for the entry level payTV market seems to be growing slowly than expected. The unit was reported to have a total of 2.5 million subscribers across 11 countries in Africa.

DStv operates GoTV which is an affordable pay TV missing some of the premium contents you find in the main DStv. Yet, as noted in its disclosure, the market is not growing very well. In other words, customers continue to patronize DStv despite its high cost and the availability of  a cheaper alternative. But it is very possible that GoTV does not really offer much value.

Naspers has the funding to continue to produce exclusive contents which will keep people in DStv. You can see the advantages of DStv as follows:

  • Experience: It has more than 20 years of experience in this business. It was started in 1995 and it knows what works and does not work
  • Premium contents: From sports to entertainment, DStv is the undisputed category-king. The Magic channel which is designed along the Nigerian Nollywood loving customers is one of the best in the continent. This is a moat as it has covered the sports and entertainment making it more challenging for anyone to come up with anything else.
  • Beyond African contents: Besides the Magic channel, DStv has great Indian movies, Hollywood and Latin American contents. These expanded content portfolios are the reason why customers remain with it despite the relative cost
  • Bundle Showmax and DStv: If things become more challenging, Naspers will bundle Showmax (DStv’s online video on demand) and DStv so that if you have account of either, you can enjoy both. No one comes close at its scale in these two market segments in Africa. With that bundling, DStv will keep its customers.

The Challenge Before TSTV

TSTV is structured to become like GoTV but the problem is that GoTV is not really doing well. In the pay TV business, content is king. If you do not have the content, the pricing makes no difference. Right now, GoTV is not doing well despite being cheaper because the contents are not there to attract customers.

Besides GoTV, StarTimes is another competitor that TSTV has to deal with. Owned by Chinese investors, StarTimes is cheap, and affordable and largely promising with growing customer base, now at 10 million. People still want the premium contents. GoTV is cheaper than StarTimes. But of course, StarTimes offers news analysis which gives it a minor edge. This could be a consolation to TStv. If StarTimes broke into the markets with good pricing before DStv responded, it does mean with decent contents, customers can be swayed. I do think GoTV may be struggling because of limited valuable contents.

The video on demand players like iROKOtv and Netflix are also competitors. Anything that engages a customer time is a threat to pay TV. Of course, these online contents are mainly shows and movies at the moment in Africa without the live programming you get in TV as in sports. Nonetheless, they are competitors to TStv and that does not help its vision. DStv parent company Naspers owns ShowMax which gives it another major advantage across emerging channels.

TStv will need more assets to compete against GoTV and StarTimes which are closer to its market segments than DStv. HiTV tried the same strategy many years ago, coming with cheaper pricing but struggled. StarTimes is from China and that gives it strong financial backing. TStv will have to do more. The market is still at infancy but the competition is also huge. Both DStv and StarTimes control more than 90% of the market.

All Together

TStv will begin operations on November 1 2017. Nigeria welcomes it as we want more options and choices in the markets.

Beside Nollywood and foreign programming, there are opportunities for documentary of Nigerian history, culture, technology and other things. Also, there are many growth opportunities ahead. So, TStv could find its moments as it begins its operations in Africa’s most populous nation. Nevertheless, it has to plan very well as it takes on the Goliath of pay TV in Africa. Sure, Goliath has been beaten in the past and that should be encouraging for TStv.

At the end, I do think we will have Apple iOS and Google Android scenario here. DStv will be the Apple while StarTimes/TStv will be the Android. The latter set will be everywhere while the former keeps the profit. So, at the end, DStv with its premium contents and higher pricing will keep more than 60% of the profits in the sector. That profit is what Naspers is really interested in.

Where To Find Your Best African Business Ideas

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There is one company I want to introduce to you today. It is named Stance. It makes socks. Yes, socks, the wear you use for your shoes. The startup is hot, raising $110 million from legendary venture capital firms like Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, August Capital, and Shasta Ventures. Yes, Silicon Valley wants to disrupt the socks sector, a highly low-scale and dreamy sector. But as it seems, that is where the money could be found.

Venture capitalists like the company, too. Pedigreed investors, including Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, August Capital, Shasta Ventures and others from Silicon Valley, have put $110 million in the sock business. “No one had thought about this category,” says Tod Francis, co-founder of Shasta Ventures. Trudeau, who attracted attention in May for a different pair of Star Wars socks made by Stance, is a fan but not an investor.

Sales should exceed $100 million this year, and it’s looking to turn a profit next year, according to two people with knowledge of the finances, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Stance says it has spent more than half of the money it raised from investors. The company may need to tap more capital as it expands beyond men’s socks and underwear. Women’s lingerie debuts this month, and subscriptions for regular shipments of its products are also in the works.

There is a huge lesson for us here: it does not have to be extremely complicated to find opportunities in markets. You do not need to master software, AI, robotics, 3D and other those esoteric things before you can build a business with potentials to create great value. The markets we have today especially in Africa are not at full maturity. That means, we can still find value in them through improved business models. You can make money in making juice. You can hit big in packaging palm oil and exporting same. You can create immense value in finding better ways to preserve and transport vegetables. You must not be a techie before you can find your moments. Stance has taken socks and the company is expecting to hit $100 million in sales this year.

The following are other dreamy startups, which are not necessarily in technology, that have done well

  • Casper – makes mattresses and has brought fun in the business of selling mattresses
  • Hubble – sells contact lenses. It is finding huge value in that business which everyone will think has no opening
  • Brandless – food and household goods.

Find the Ideas

I get this question always: I am looking for business ideas. Typically, I tell the person to check in his or her environments for things which are not done perfectly in the ways he/she will like them done. Why there are many factors one has to consider before investing, the process of arriving at a business vision does not have to be extremely complicated. If no one is having pain points in the area your solution is developed to fix, it is very possible that no one will buy the product when you launch.

As you see the opportunities in the markets, you must examine the ones you have interests and capabilities to execute. It does not make sense to be living in Lagos, and be asking someone in London to give you a business idea for Lagos. Such insights could result to products and services with zero possibility to succeed in Lagos.

Always remember that business is about fixing the friction between buyers and sellers. If you do not see any friction (or someone has drastically reduced it) in the relationships between buyers and sellers in that sector, it means that the possibility of a business succeeding may be limited. But where frictions exist, that is where the money is and that means you can establish a business to fix the frictions.

Dear African Web Entrepreneurs, Develop Your OFFLINE Growth

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It is crazy out there with all the talks of digital disruptions they are throwing on Africa’s offline industries. The web entrepreneurs will magically grow from one customer and take 30% of the total market. Yes, you can use your app to onboard 16 million bank customers in three years when it took you 123 years to get 14 million customers.

Sure, there are millions of people in Africa. You can get a digital business to take your percentage. Give him 10% of the 1.2 billion people and he will smile to the Forbes billionaire party. But what if I tell you that the person with that projection is wrong? Except blogging, which is a digital native business (even that could need offline sales efforts), I will recommend you get build an OFFLINE Growth team even if you run a digital/web business in our continent.

That is how it will be till 2022, at least. The money is still offline and I want us to respect that.  You also need to understand that the people are still offline. Every data from Konga to Uber to PrepClass and more will tell you just that. These are hard numbers from people pushing the envelopes. I explain in this video.

My prediction of 2022 is explained in this piece.

In today’s videocast, I make a case that Africa will enter the era of affordable broadband internet in 2022. That will be the year we will begin a new dawn of immersive connectivity where you can eat and surf all you can. Industry players will take off the Internet meter and then focus on service, experience and quality. From satellite broadband vendors to the MNCs with balloons and drones, the sector will become very competitive and service will drive growth. This has happened in the past – every decade, Africa experiences a major industrial transformation. We saw that in banking and voice telephony. 2020s, starting at 2022, will be the decade of immersive connectivity.

 

 

 

The Indigenous Capability Lesson from Shuttered Ibom Specialist Hospital, Nigeria

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The “world class” multi-billion Naira hospital built and commissioned by former governor of Akwa Ibom State, Godswill Akpabio, has been closed. Everyone knows that the hospital was never a world class since when the former governor had a minor accident, he decided to fly abroad instead of being treated in his “world class” hospital. Simply, he had executed another fraud which politicians unleash on Nigerian citizens daily.

The Ibom Specialist Hospital in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, has been shut down, just two years after it was built and commissioned by the administration of former governor, Godswill Akpabio. Almost all the health workers in the hospital were foreigners, mostly from India.

Mr. Akpabio had boasted that the hospital, which he described as ‘world class’, was better equipped and higher in status than university teaching hospitals in Nigeria, and that it was going to promote medical tourism in the country.

The multi-million dollar hospital was shut down in September after its private managers terminated their contract with the state government and withdrew from the facility.

When visiting the hospital on Monday evening, the facility was locked down; apart from the security officials, not a single person was inside its massive buildings.

Visitors were not allowed entry

You read it right. A governor built a public hospital, imported foreigners and put that hospital in the hands of private managers to run. Why did he do that? It is simply the lack of vision to develop indigenous capabilities. Nigerian leaders always think that every corner can be cut: just get someone abroad and the problem will be fixed. But that is a mirage and a total illusion. Hiring and maintaining foreign labor is expensive and it rarely works unless you are in the oil & gas sector. For a state hospital which is largely a social enterprise, a simple financial model would have shown the former governor that his idea was not sustainable.

The Ibom Specialist Hospital in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State – a wasted N41 billion (credit: PR Times)

Unless you are a doctor working in a government hospital and running a private clinic by the side, it is very challenging to make profit running clinics and hospitals in Nigeria. Why those doctors that run clinics by the side make money is that they always share government facilities and tools without reimbursing governments. I had the experience many years ago as I was entering secondary school. I went to the local government general hospital for my Doctor’s Report which was required in the school. The medical director told me that I should come to his house to collect the report. Of course, as a kid, I did and he gave me the report. I did pay him and not the government. Every kid in my school had the same experience. We went to the government clinic but were diverted to the home of the medical director. That experience is common today.

But when it is a state government and you think you will make money to cover dollar-denominated expenses, you are not serious. The hospital could not even last up to five years, thereby proving how off the government was in its financial planning.

The building, in coming months, will be covered by weeds and criminals would go in and steal the electrical systems. Within the next two years, the building will be a cave. Another money – N41 billion – wasted in Nigeria!

Nigeria needs to learn that homegrown capability is the only way to build sustainable public enterprises. Imagine if the governor had developed a ten year plan that would extend beyond his tenure and subsequent administrations commit to it. He could decide to train 200 Akwa Ibom doctors within the first six years and in the 7th year commission this hospital. Some foreigners could be hired to support the growth of the local doctors, but over time, they will be phased out. That would be a sustainable model than flying doctors when you do not have a clear roadmap to cover the costs.