What works in Nigeria? You must be BIG. And in the market, we have empirical validation of that construct that size matters in Nigeria: “A Nairametrics analysis of five market heavyweights—MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement, Seplat Energy, Nestlé Nigeria, and BUA Cement—shows combined net cash flow from operating activities hitting N2.922 trillion in the first half of 2025. That’s a staggering 140% jump from the same period last year, and 14% more than their entire 2024 full-year total. Their combined bottom line has swung from a N403 billion loss a year ago to a profit of N1.21 trillion, underscoring a dramatic reversal in fortunes.”

Now, if we need size to unlock alpha in the private sector, do you think Nigeria needs to have only six governors? Lol. He has gone there again. But seriously, I do not see any rapid transformation in Nigeria from the state level considering how small the states are.

Aliko Dangote’s yearly dividend is more than the budget of most Nigerian states. And Nigeria’s national budget is a little above the healthcare budget of South Africa!

Nigerian Blue Chip Giants Ride Naira Stability to Cash Flow Boom

After two years of whiplash from currency swings, surging finance costs, and record foreign exchange losses, Nigeria’s biggest corporations are finally catching their breath.

In 2025, a more stable naira has not only halted the FX hemorrhage—it has flipped the script, delivering gains that are fattening profits and transforming cash positions across corporate Nigeria.

For investors, the headline profits now flashing on corporate results sheets tell only half the story. The real pulse of a business—its ability to generate cash from daily operations—is beating faster than at any time in recent memory. This surge in operating cash flow is funding expansion, cutting debt, and positioning firms for generous shareholder payouts.

A NairaMetrics analysis of five market heavyweights—MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement, Seplat Energy, Nestlé Nigeria, and BUA Cement—shows combined net cash flow from operating activities hitting N2.922 trillion in the first half of 2025. That’s a staggering 140% jump from the same period last year, and 14% more than their entire 2024 full-year total. Their combined bottom line has swung from a N403 billion loss a year ago to a profit of N1.21 trillion, underscoring a dramatic reversal in fortunes.

MTN Nigeria: Cash First, Profits Second

In the ICT space, MTN Nigeria turned in a robust N956 billion in operating cash flow, well above its N415 billion profit for the period. Revenue growth and effective pricing strategies helped deliver profits of N622 billion in H1 2025, a sharp turnaround from 2024’s FX-driven losses.

The company has slashed its negative equity from N458 billion at year-end to N42.51 billion by June. Analysts say the telco is now primed to resume dividend payments this year, with an operating cash flow per share yield of 9.8% boosting its appeal to income-focused investors.

Dangote Cement Was Consistent

Dangote Cement continues to deliver consistency. Its N874 billion in operating cash flow—more than double last year’s figure—was supported by solid profits of N521 billion, lower inventories, and reduced prepayments. The liquidity gives Africa’s largest cement maker greater flexibility to fund plant expansions, pay down debt, and maintain dividends.

Seplat Energy: Accounting Profit Understates the Story

Seplat’s headline net income of N42 billion in H1 2025 might look modest, weighed down by taxes. But beneath the surface, the company’s cash engine is roaring, with N755 billion in operating cash flow driven by strong pre-tax earnings and a massive N518.9 billion depreciation and amortization charge.

CEO Roger Brown says the cash cushion allows Seplat to keep its dividend streak alive while paying off an extra $100 million in debt this year. With a 24% operating cash flow yield—well above its 4.55% dividend yield—Seplat is stockpiling capacity for reinvestment and deleveraging.

Nestlé Nigeria Made A Quiet but Remarkable Turnaround

For Nestlé, the swing is remarkable. From a N177 billion loss in H1 2024 to a N50.57 billion profit this year, the real headline is its N187.6 billion in positive operating cash flow, up from a negative N27.65 billion last year. With a 13% operating cash flow yield, the FMCG giant is rebuilding liquidity, giving it options for future dividends, debt reduction, or market expansion, even without immediate payouts.

BUA Cement: Profit-Rich, Cash-Light

BUA Cement’s N150 billion in operating cash flow more than doubled from last year, but still lagged behind its N181 billion profit. This suggests that while the cement producer’s accounting profits are strong—thanks to a pre-tax profit surge of 435%—its cash conversion is being weighed down by higher working capital needs or slower customer payments.

The Macroeconomic Shift

What unites these companies is not just the naira’s newfound stability but a broader macroeconomic shift. The Central Bank’s tighter FX controls, a cooler inflationary environment, and price adjustments across sectors have restored breathing space for corporate balance sheets. The shift from headline profit growth to strong, recurring cash flow signals a phase where Nigerian blue chips are once again on the front foot—better able to self-finance growth and withstand shocks.

For investors, 2025 may mark a turning point. Sustained operating cash flow strengthens intrinsic value, attracts fresh capital, and can drive share price gains. Analysts believe the second half of the year will test whether this cash surge is a one-off windfall or the foundation of a longer cycle of stability. However, the tills for now are ringing louder than they have in years, and in corporate Nigeria, that sound is the clearest sign of resilience.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says the term artificial general intelligence — long viewed as the holy grail of artificial intelligence research — is losing relevance as breakthroughs in the field make it increasingly difficult to define what AGI actually means.

Speaking to CNBC’s Squawk Box last week following the release of OpenAI’s latest large language model, GPT-5, Altman argued that the label “AGI” has become too vague to serve as a meaningful milestone.

“I think it’s not a super useful term,” Altman said when asked whether GPT-5 marks a step closer to human-level AI. He noted that the concept has been defined in multiple ways over the years, from the broad notion of AI that can perform any intellectual task a human can, to narrower interpretations such as AI that can handle “a significant amount of the work in the world.” The challenge, he pointed out, is that the very definition of “work” evolves over time.

“I think the point of all of this is it doesn’t really matter and it’s just this continuing exponential of model capability that we’ll rely on for more and more things,” Altman said.

A shifting North Star

For much of the past decade, AGI has served as both a technical goal and a fundraising rallying cry for AI startups. The concept has drawn billions in investment, including the tens of billions of dollars that have propelled OpenAI’s valuation to $300 billion, with reports suggesting a planned secondary share sale could push that figure to $500 billion.

Nick Patience, vice president and AI practice lead at The Futurum Group, told CNBC that while AGI works well as an “inspirational North Star,” the term’s lack of precision can distort the conversation.

“It drives funding and captures the public imagination, but its vague, sci-fi definition often creates a fog of hype that obscures the real, tangible progress we’re making in more specialized AI,” Patience said.

GPT-5 and the incremental debate

OpenAI last week released GPT-5, describing it as “smarter, faster, and a lot more useful,” particularly for writing, coding, and health care support. The system is available to all ChatGPT users, including those on the free tier.

However, the launch drew mixed reactions. Some online critics described GPT-5 as an incremental upgrade from GPT-4o rather than a revolution.

“By all accounts it’s incremental, not revolutionary,” said Wendy Hall, professor of computer science at the University of Southampton. She added that AI companies “should be forced to declare how they measure up to globally agreed metrics” to prevent overblown marketing claims, warning that “it’s the Wild West for snake oil salesmen at the moment.”

Altman himself conceded that GPT-5 does not meet his personal definition of AGI, as the system cannot yet continuously learn without human retraining. While OpenAI still positions AGI as its ultimate goal, Altman said the company now prefers to discuss “different levels” of intelligence rather than using the binary question of whether is it AGI or not? framing, which he believes has become “too coarse as we get closer.”

The distraction argument

The debate over AGI’s meaning comes as AI firms face growing scrutiny over how they present their technological progress. Some experts believe that chasing the AGI label has become more of a fundraising strategy than a practical benchmark.

Patience told CNBC that while AGI remains a compelling vision, it may now be more of a distraction than a useful guidepost.

“There’s so much exciting real-world stuff happening, I feel AGI is a bit of a distraction, promoted by those that need to keep raising astonishing amounts of funding,” he said. “It’s more useful to talk about specific capabilities than this nebulous concept of ‘general’ intelligence.”

Altman, for his part, predicts that AI will deliver breakthrough achievements — such as solving complex mathematical theorems and driving scientific discovery — within the next two years. Whether or not such milestones meet any one definition of AGI, he suggested, the more important measure will be how AI systems continue to integrate into daily life and reshape industries.