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Behold the $1 Trillion Industry for African Entrepreneurs

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The power of entrepreneurs and the free market is driving Africa’s economic growth from food production, as business wakes up to opportunities of a rapidly growing food market in Africa, that may be worth more than $1 trillion each year by 2030 to substitute imports with high value food made in Africa.

Agriculture will be Africa’s quiet revolution, with a focus on SMEs and smallholder farmers creating the high productivity jobs and sustainable economic growth that failed to materialise from mineral deposits and increased urbanisation. Despite 37 percent of the population now living in urban centres, most jobs have been created in lower paid, less productive services rather than in industry, with this service sector accounting for more than half of the continent’s GDP. Smart investments in the food system can change this picture dramatically if planned correctly.

To succeed, Africa’s agricultural revolution needs to be very different to those seen in the rest of world. It requires an inclusive approach that links millions of small farms to agribusinesses, creating extended food supply chains and employment opportunities for millions including those that will transition from farming. This is in contrast to the model often seen elsewhere in the world of moving to large scale commercial farming and food processing, which employs relatively few people and requires high levels of capital.

There is the opportunity for Africa to feed the continent with food made in Africa that meets the growing demand of affluent, fast growing urban populations on the continent looking for high value processed and pre-cooked foods. Furthermore, it advocates that this opportunity should be met by many of the continent’s existing smallholder farmers. Currently part of this growing demand for Africa’s food is met by imports. These amount to $35bn p.a. and are expected to cost $110bn by 2025 unless Africa improves the productivity and global competiveness of its agribusiness and agriculture sectors.

The following points have been identified as key issues.

  •  Governments need to increase their investments in agriculture and rural infrastructure in line with their 10 per cent CAADP commitment
  • Governments should take a holistic approach to improving the business environment for the entire agrifood system, from farm to fork
  • Smallholder farmers need to be better organised to link to modern value chains
  • Governments need to support the financial sector to meet the unserved financial needs of commercially oriented small farms and food producing SMEs
  • Legislation and regulations that boost regional trade in agricultural products will make a significant contribution to the growth of Africa’s food production sector and have a tangible impact on reducing poverty

Yet, it is clear that left to the private sector alone, growth in the agrifood system will not be as fast as it could, nor will it benefit as many smallholder farmers and SMEs as it could. Government support is needed to both stimulate and guide the transition. As a high priority, governments need to create an enabling business environment and in particular, meet targets to invest ten percent of GDP in agriculture, agreed at the 2003 African Union (AU) Summit as part of The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP).

Governments must stimulate new private public partnerships for more innovative financing and insurance provision which can lead to increased resilience for farmers and their households. While globally agricultural insurance is a $2 billion business, Africa accounts for less than two percent of the market. Other fiscal stimulus measures suggested include improving financial regulations, developing better credit-reporting processes, opening up special economic zones, supporting digital warehouse receipt systems and sharing risk with lenders through credit guarantees and matching funds.

By AGRA Report

Why Your Nigerian Solar Power + Blockchain Smart Meter Startup Could Fail

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privatize power Nigeria
Mr. B. Fashola, Nigeria's minister supervising electricity sector

You have this great idea: build a solar farm and use blockchain to take Africa to the new age of electricity distribution and retailing. Congratulations for being ahead of the technology curve, in the continent. But I have a hard news for you: that project will fail in most African countries.

Why? It turns out that in places like Nigeria, for example, only the distribution companies (discos) can install meters. So, if they do not like your meter, there is nothing you can do about it. The electricity sector is bundled which means startups cannot just have access to the national grid unfettered. You have to go through one link to connect to the grid, and that is the disco. That is the regulation today. And when you go, you have to pay them. The government does not have any template on that revenue distribution. Technically, you are at a disadvantage in negotiating any contract with the discos.

So, before you begin to pitch investors on energy projects and how you can revolutionize Africa with solar and blockchain, check the regulation on what it can allow you to do. Electricity supply is terrible in Nigeria, and our entrepreneurs understand the opportunities in the sector. They can provide solar and some other supporting technologies to serve customers. But there is one problem:  if they serve customers, they will need to grow and scale. But to scale, the present regulation must be changed or updated to give them access to the national grid.

Use of blockchain in smart metering is used in some countries. But regulations may affect adoption in some African countries (image credit: Indigo)

 

While you can have solar power in each home, the value will come when you can use solar to support a village or community. To have the capacity to do that, you will need to pipe the electricity through the national grid and meter it appropriately. (I do think you will not like to build new poles and connecting wires.) But the discos, knowing that they have no challenger, may not cooperate with your plans. Without the meter, which only discos supply, with specifications largely defined by government, you have no business. And right now, there is no specification that a smart meter can be powered by blockchain. Largely, discos may not be sold to that idea. They have no motivation to innovate because the territory is assigned to them.

In Nigeria, there are few of these discos spread regionally. Unless you can work with them and convince them, knowing that they have minimal incentive to innovate, do not waste your time.

It is only a new regulation that can change the situation. Simply, government has to unbundle the electricity sector so that entrepreneurs can help improve it. The biggest challenge today is not technical, but regulation, for entrepreneurs. We do hope they will lead there as they promised during the election. Perhaps, the entrepreneurs can lobby government to change the regulation. They need to find a way for discos and small players to co-exist for small competition to happen.

Lessons From China’s Path To Upstream Technology Pyramid

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I like it when American media giants discuss China within the constructs of copycats. They have a right to do that. Everyone wants to be patriotic. For me, Nigerian jollof rice is better than the Senegalese one (and the whole of West Africa), irrespective of what any minister thinks in Nigeria. Sure, I like to call things the way they are, but for rice, I think there is no argument: Nigerians make better ones.

Now, to the issue at hand. China is actually huge in innovation. They have the best chatbot in the world. WeChat has advanced more than anything of its class including WhatsApp. With WeChat, you have a bank app, doing all kinds of things, including paying school fees and paying for bus ticket. Uber saw heat when a local rival, Didi Chuxing, challenged it and won. The best civilian drone maker in the world today is DJI which is a Chinese firm. The reality is that China is building category-king companies, across technology sectors.

But China is not just satisfied; it is going to the upstream of the technology pyramid. Huawei, a Chinese IT giant, plans to use artificial intelligence to redesign many features in mobile devices in order to challenge Apple and Samsung, the two industry leaders. The firm has built a new chip, Kirin 970, which it claims can preserve battery life on phones by up to 50%. The phone works using Neural Processing Unit (NPU) .

Artificial intelligence (AI) built into its new chips can help make phones more personalized, or anticipate the actions and interests of their users, Yu said.

As examples, he said AI can enable real-time language translation, heed voice commands, or take advantage of augmented reality, which overlays text, sounds, graphics and video on real-world images phone users see in front of them.

Yu believes the new Kirin 970 chip’s speed and low power can translate into features that will give its phones an edge over the Apple iPhone 8 series, set to be unveiled on Sept. 12, and Samsung’s range of top-line phones announced this year. Huawei is the world’s No. 3 smartphone maker behind Samsung and Apple.

“Compared with Samsung and Apple, we have advantages,” Yu said in an interview during the annual IFA consumer electronics fair in Berlin. “Users are in for much faster (feature) performance, longer battery life and more compact design.”

Neural chips are not new, but using them in the consumer phone market is pioneering. What Huawei is doing is integrating the AI at the level of hardware, not just at the software level. It is having “Artificial intelligence (AI) built into its new chips”, beyond the software where many firms operate.

The Huawei Kirin chip illustration  [source: Huawei consumer]

It brings together classic computing, graphics, image and digital signal processing power that have typically required separate chips, taking up more space and slowing interaction between features within phones.

Most importantly, Huawei aims to use the Kirin chips to differentiate its phones from a vast sea of competitors, including Samsung, who overwhelming rely on rival Snapdragon chips from Qualcomm, the market leader in mobile chip design. Among major phone makers, only Apple and Huawei now rely on their own core processors.

So in this race, Huawei is ahead of Samsung, because Samsung still uses Qualcomm Snapdragon. Chip design is not what you can clone. It requires a deeper level of engineering. So when they write-off China, be guided that most are not fair.

Huawei could be redefining the future of mobile and watch out for others to copy it. It has challenged Cisco to a draw, if you do not want to call it for Huawei. Its main problem, with competitors, is that it makes things free, because it always finds out the best way to make them cheaper. Besides any government support which everyone gets around the world, Huawei is winning on technology, not just on pricing. China deserves a lot of respect in the technology world.

I will not waste time here discussing Africa and what we can learn, except to say that the evolution of China offers us a clear roadmap towards our development. We can start small, and then over time, move to the upper level in the technology pyramid. China has stationed a good ladder and continues to climb, Africa must learn from that model.

Applying Steve Jobs’ Mutative Management System In Your Firm

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Bottomline: Legendary co-founder and former CEO of Apple, Steve Jobs, was a legend. He pioneered a management system in Apple which successfully redesigned the firm and brought unrivaled level of product innovation in the world. He engineered perception demand constructwhich made Apple a category-king in most sectors it competes. In this long piece, I explain […]

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The World’s Most Confident Investors

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This is a Short Note.

I have been following Samsung over the last few years. It makes really great products – microchips, smartphones, kitchenware, and many others. But Samsung is not necessarily spotless. It has had its Galaxy Note 7 exploding-battery problem and continues to battle with Apple in the smartphone business. Yet, despite these issues, Samsung stock has not frozen; a QZ newsletter explains it thus:

Throughout all this, Samsung Electronics—the crown jewel of the larger Samsung empire—has been running a tear on the Korea Exchange. Its components division, which makes OLED displays and semiconductors, has kept operating profit strong. The company’s market capitalization has increased by $85 billion, up almost 44% from one year ago. It seems that in the eyes of shareholders, the turmoil surrounding Samsung Electronics remains secondary to its solid fundamentals.

And the big one few days ago: the heir to the Samsung empire, Lee Jae-yong, was convicted and sentenced to five years in prison. He had been founded guilty in an illegal donation as the company pursued its merger plans.

While not condoning what has happened in Samsung including the illegal donation and making sub-par products that put people at risks, you cannot miss the discipline of its investors. In U.S., Samsung could have paid severe penalty. In short, the conviction of the Samsung heir could have pushed the stock to deep worry territory. Of course, the guy will not even be near Samsung before the trial was over. Activists would have asked him to step down, and resigned from the company. Some could have asked him to sell his shares.

If you think former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick was misbehaving, remember that no one had convicted him of any crime. Yet, they pushed him to step down despite the clear evidence that he was generating alpha.

So, if you look at the South Korean people, you need to question how they have navigated all these issues which have befallen Samsung and still believed. They understand that the company has solid business fundamental, and have refused to be distracted by the scandals. Indeed,  it is hard to fathom how a company’s owner (yes, he is the heir) of such a large firm was convicted, and the stock did not even move. The only explanation is: provided Samsung keeps generating profits, nothing matters. They are indeed confident on the fundamentals of this business and Samsung is lucky to have them.

While I do not necessarily support the level of confidence, what is happening in South Korea tells me about resilience and expectation at national level. There is something for every nation to learn here: knee-jerk reaction may not do so much good. The unprecedented collapse of the Nigerian stock market nine years ago cannot be totally blamed on the Great Recession, but the fact that we simply over-reacted to events that we were not necessarily at the center. Even if the foreign investors had pulled their capital, Nigerians could have done things differently. Of course, without solid confidence in the markets and the companies, that would be hard to expect.