DD
MM
YYYY

PAGES

DD
MM
YYYY

spot_img

PAGES

Home Blog Page 77

Naira to Strengthen to N1350/$1 in 2026 as FX Reforms and Liquidity Gains Offset Oil Market Headwinds — CardinalStone

0

Nigeria’s naira could stage a meaningful recovery in 2026, strengthening to between N1,350 and N1,450 per dollar, as foreign exchange reforms, improving liquidity, and easing inflation begin to reshape the macroeconomic landscape, according to CardinalStone Partners.

The projection is contained in the firm’s 2026 economic outlook report, “Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains,” published on January 6, 2026. The report outlines a more supportive environment for the currency and prices, even as it cautions that global oil market weakness and rising domestic insecurity could still test the durability of the gains.

After years of sharp depreciation and volatility triggered by FX market reforms, devaluations, and persistent dollar shortages, CardinalStone said the naira’s outlook is improving as fundamentals gradually align.

“We expect Naira to appreciate to a range of N1,350.00/$ – N1,450.00/$ in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals,” the report stated.

At the core of this view is a belief that recent reforms in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market are beginning to yield results. CardinalStone points to improved price discovery, better transparency, and stronger FX liquidity as factors that could help stabilize the currency. With inflation expected to moderate and confidence slowly returning to the FX market, the firm argues that pressure on the naira could ease further in 2026.

This optimism comes against a less supportive global oil backdrop. CardinalStone expects crude oil prices to weaken in 2026 due to oversupply and softer global demand, a scenario that would normally spell trouble for Nigeria’s FX earnings.

“Elsewhere, due to oversupply and weaker demand, crude oil prices are likely to be lower,” the report said.

Lower oil prices reduce dollar inflows from exports and government revenue, but CardinalStone believes Nigeria’s FX outlook may prove more resilient this time. Structural changes in the FX market, coupled with improved capital flows and reduced distortions, are expected to help cushion the impact of weaker crude prices.

The firm’s outlook also extends to domestic energy prices, which have been a major driver of inflation and cost pressures over the past two years. CardinalStone projects that a combination of weaker global oil prices and a firmer naira could translate into lower fuel costs in 2026.

“The weak oil price, coupled with an improving FX outlook, should further drive down the domestic prices of AGO and PMS,” the report noted.

This would mark a notable shift after repeated fuel price increases following subsidy removal and currency weakness. Lower prices for Automotive Gas Oil and Premium Motor Spirit would ease transport and logistics costs, offering relief to households and businesses, particularly in manufacturing and trade.

CardinalStone also highlighted rising competition in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector as a stabilising factor. Increased supply from local refineries, alongside continued imports, is expected to limit price spikes and improve market efficiency.

“More so, competition in the domestic market between local refineries and importers bodes well for the local energy price outlook,” the firm said.

On inflation, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. CardinalStone expects headline inflation to trend lower in 2026 as currency pressures ease and energy costs decline. However, it warned that insecurity, especially in food-producing regions, remains a significant threat to price stability.

“Nonetheless, we note the increased traction of insecurity as a risk factor, especially in food-producing regions, which could limit food supply,” the report said.

Food inflation has been a major contributor to Nigeria’s elevated headline inflation in recent years, and disruptions to farming and distribution continue to pose risks. CardinalStone also flagged pre-election year spending as another factor that could complicate the inflation outlook, given its historical tendency to fuel demand and strain fiscal balances.

Taking these dynamics into account, the firm forecasts that headline inflation will ease to an average of 15.5% in 2026 and close the year at 13.9%. While still elevated by historical standards, this would represent a significant improvement from recent peaks.

The broader implications of the outlook are substantial. A stronger naira would help reduce imported inflation, stabilize consumer prices, and improve planning for businesses dependent on foreign inputs. Easing inflation and lower energy costs could support purchasing power and help unlock a more durable economic recovery.

Still, CardinalStone’s projections underscore that the outlook is finely balanced. Security challenges, fiscal discipline ahead of elections, and swings in global oil markets remain critical variables. Sustaining currency stability and disinflation, the firm suggests, will require continued reform momentum and improved domestic stability.

Nigeria’s exchange rate has endured sharp swings in recent years following FX liberalization and persistent dollar shortages, while inflation has remained stubbornly high due to food prices, energy costs, and currency weakness. Against that backdrop, 2026 is shaping up as a pivotal year for testing whether recent policy changes can deliver lasting macroeconomic stability.

CardinalStone also projects that global oil prices will average $55.08 per barrel in 2026, reinforcing its view that Nigeria’s economic outlook will depend less on crude prices and more on structural improvements in FX management, energy supply, and inflation control.

African Startups Recorded $3.2bn in Funding in 2025, Surpassing 2023 And 2024 Levels

0

African startups showed renewed strength in 2025, raising billions of dollars in funding, a clear rebound after two challenging years for venture capital on the continent.

A report by Africa: The Big Deal revealed that African startups staged a notable comeback last year, raising a total of $3.2 billion in funding (excluding exits), a 40% year-on-year increase from 2024.

While the figure is impressive on its own, it is even more significant given that it follows two consecutive years of decline, a 35% drop in 2023 and a further 25% contraction in 2024. In 2023, African startups raised around $2.9 billion, and in 2024, they raised approximately $2.2 billion in funding (equity, debt, and grants, excluding exits), a decline from the prior year.

By the end of 2025, fundraising levels had not only surpassed those of 2024 but also exceeded 2023 totals, signaling a renewed wave of investor confidence across the continent.

Nearly 500 startups raised at least $100,000 in 2025, a figure largely consistent with both 2024 and 2023. However, the composition of funding shifted meaningfully toward larger deal sizes. A total of 215 ventures secured $1 million or more, representing an 11% increase over 2024 and bringing activity back in line with 2023 levels.

The resurgence was even more pronounced at the top end of the market. In 2025, 69 startups raised over $10 million, a sharp rise from just 40 in 2024 and a 73% year-on-year increase. This marked the second-highest number of $10 million-plus deals since tracking began in 2019, second only to the 97 recorded in 2022. Additionally, eight startups announced funding rounds exceeding $100 million, compared to five in 2024 and four in 2023.

Sector-wise, the largest funding rounds were concentrated in energy and fintech. Energy companies such as d.light, Sun King, M-Kopa, and Spiro attracted significant capital, alongside fintech leaders including Wave, MNT-Halan, and Moniepoint.

Investor participation remained robust. In 2025, at least 554 investors were involved in deals of $100,000 or more across Africa. While this figure is likely underestimated due to the limited visibility of angel investors it provides a strong indication of active capital deployment.

The total is broadly in line with 2024 levels, though below the 650-plus investors recorded in 2023. Notably, 31% of investors participated in more than one deal, while 7% were involved in five or more deals, slightly higher than in previous years. Among the most active players, Digital Africaemerged as the leading non-grant investor, with at least 23 investments announced during the year.

Looking at the broader picture, seven years of data underscore the growing depth of Africa’s startup ecosystem. Since 2019, startups on the continent have raised nearly $20 billion in funding (excluding exits).

Over this period, 2,200+ ventures have secured at least $100,000, including more than 1,000 startups raising over $1 million, nearly 300 surpassing $10 million, and 33 exceeding the $100 million mark.

MNT-Halan stands out as the top fundraiser, having raised over $1 billion to date. In total, more than 2,500 investors have participated in at least one African startup deal during this period. Together, these figures highlight a maturing ecosystem that, despite recent headwinds, demonstrated resilience and renewed momentum in 2025.

Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

Looking ahead, the African startup ecosystem appears poised for further growth in 2026. Analysts expect continued investor interest, particularly in fintech, clean energy, healthtech, and mobility solutions, sectors that have consistently attracted mega-rounds.

With digital adoption increasing across the continent, startups that demonstrate scalable models and regional expansion potential are likely to secure larger funding rounds.

Sterling Bank Taps Thunes Network to Boost Global Payments For Nigerians Abroad

0

Thunes a financial technology company that provides a global cross-border payment infrastructure has announced the onboarding of Sterling Bank into its Direct Global Network, a move set to enhance cross-border payment experiences for Nigerians living and working abroad.

Through this partnership, both new and existing Sterling Bank account holders can now access seamless, instant international payment services, making it easier to send money home in real time.

Speaking on the collaboration Daniel Parreira, SVP, Sales Africa at Thunes said,

“Welcoming Sterling Bank to our Direct Global Network marks another significant milestone in our expansion across Africa, and the trust in our infrastructure across the continent. Together, we’re enabling a new level of convenience, speed, and confidence for customers managing finances across borders. This alliance demonstrates our ongoing dedication to making global money movement instant, transparent and accessible for all.”

Also commenting, Ayodeji Saba, Head, Switch & Remittances at Sterling Bank said,

“This partnership reflects Sterling Bank’s deep commitment to making it easier for Nigerians abroad to send money home. With Thunes’ trusted technology, we’re giving our customers a faster, more reliable, and more affordable way to fund their Sterling Bank accounts from their foreign bank accounts. It’s a major step forward in improving the experience for our diaspora community.”

The collaboration underscores the shared commitment of Thunes and Sterling Bank to advancing financial inclusion and strengthening trusted, real-time payment infrastructure across Africa and beyond. Thunes direct global network connects banks, mobile Wallets and digital assets in 130 countries, reaching billions of endpoints in both fiat and Stablecoins.

For Sterling Bank the partnership is pivotal to its growth and innovation and integrating directly with a global payment network like Thunes, positions it to compete more effectively with standalone remittance providers, retain diaspora customers, and unlock new revenue streams tied to cross-border services. For customers, this means fewer intermediaries, reduced transaction failures, improved FX transparency, and faster access to funds often within seconds rather than days.

Notably, last year September, Sterling Bank’s SEABaas (Sterling Ecosystem and API Banking-as-a-Service) platform recorded a major milestone, processing over two billion transactions within a single year, underscoring the bank’s growing role as a technology-driven financial services provider.

This achievement highlights the scale, resilience, and reliability of Sterling’s digital infrastructure, which powers payments, collections, transfers, and embedded finance solutions for fintechs, merchants, corporates, and developers.

With an estimated 17 million Nigerians in the diaspora, the demand for fast, transparent, and reliable remittance solutions continues to grow. As a result, demand is shifting toward modern, digital remittance solutions that offer instant or near-instant transfers, clear pricing, real-time tracking, and seamless integration with local bank accounts and wallets.

The Thunes–Sterling Bank partnership reflects a growing consensus across the financial services industry. The future of remittances is instant, transparent, and customer-centric.

As diaspora populations grow and digital adoption accelerates, collaborations that combine global infrastructure with strong local banking presence will be key to reshaping cross-border payments, strengthening economic ties, and driving sustainable financial inclusion across Nigeria and the wider African continent.

Looking ahead

Partnerships like the Thunes–Sterling Bank collaboration signal a broader shift in how cross-border payments into Africa will be delivered.

As diaspora remittances remain one of Nigeria’s most stable sources of foreign exchange, financial institutions are increasingly prioritizing real-time, low-cost, and fully digital payment rails over legacy correspondent banking models

Lenovo Taps Nvidia to Fast-Track AI Data Centers as It Pushes Deeper Into the AI Stack

0

China’s Lenovo, the world’s largest personal computer maker, is sharpening its push into artificial intelligence by partnering with U.S. chip giant Nvidia to help AI cloud providers deploy data centers at unprecedented speed.

The company announced the tie-up on Tuesday at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, framing it as a direct response to surging global demand for AI infrastructure. Lenovo said the partnership is designed to cut the time it takes to bring AI data centers online from months to just weeks, a critical advantage as competition intensifies among cloud providers racing to support large-scale AI workloads.

Under the programme, Lenovo will combine its liquid-cooled hybrid AI infrastructure with Nvidia’s computing platforms, offering what it described as an end-to-end solution for building so-called AI factories. Liquid cooling has become increasingly important as AI chips consume more power and generate more heat, turning thermal management into a key constraint on scaling.

“Lenovo AI Cloud Gigafactory with NVIDIA sets a new benchmark for scalable AI factory design, enabling the world’s most advanced AI environments to be deployed in record-setting time,” Lenovo chief executive Yang Yuanqing said, speaking alongside Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

The language reflects a broader shift in the AI industry. As demand moves from experimentation to industrial deployment, speed of execution is becoming as important as raw computing power. Cloud providers are under pressure from customers building large language models and AI services to add capacity quickly, even as supply chains for chips, power, and cooling remain tight.

For Lenovo, the partnership also signals ambition beyond its traditional PC stronghold. While the company remains best known for laptops and desktops, it also has a sizeable server business and has been positioning itself as a full-stack AI infrastructure provider, spanning devices, data centers, and software.

That strategy was on full display at CES. Alongside the Nvidia announcement, Lenovo showcased an AI platform, a range of concept devices, and its first foldable smartphone under the Motorola brand, highlighting how it plans to weave AI across its entire product portfolio.

Yang also unveiled Qira, a personal AI system designed to operate across Lenovo and Motorola PCs, smartphones, tablets, and wearables. Unlike standalone assistants, Qira is intended to work continuously in the background and integrate third-party services. Lenovo said the system would be able to offer services from companies such as travel firm Expedia, suggesting a move toward an ecosystem model rather than a single-device assistant.

The approach mirrors a broader industry trend, where hardware makers are trying to differentiate themselves by embedding AI deeper into everyday use, rather than treating it as a bolt-on feature. Lenovo is aiming to lock users into its ecosystem while gathering data and usage patterns that can inform future products by controlling both the devices and the AI layer that runs across them.

Lenovo also used the event to showcase concept AI glasses, placing them alongside companies such as Alibaba and Samsung Electronics, which are also exploring AI-powered wearables. In addition, it previewed an AI assistant wearable under “Project Maxwell,” designed to offer users real-time assistance, another signal of how AI is spilling beyond screens into ambient, always-on devices.

The Nvidia partnership sits at the center of this broader push. Nvidia’s chips have become the backbone of AI computing globally, and aligning closely with the company gives Lenovo credibility with cloud providers looking for proven, scalable solutions. The tie-up extends Lenovo’s reach deeper into enterprise and cloud infrastructure by pairing its platforms with Lenovo’s hardware, integration, and global supply chain.

The announcement also comes at a time when geopolitical and supply-chain considerations loom large. A Chinese company working closely with a U.S. AI chip leader highlights how interdependent the global AI ecosystem remains, even as governments talk more openly about technological decoupling.

However, there is the challenge of execution for Lenovo. Competing in AI infrastructure means going head-to-head with established server and systems players, while also keeping pace with rapid advances in chips, cooling, and software. But by promising faster deployment and tighter integration with Nvidia’s platforms, Lenovo is aiming to become a practical partner for cloud providers under pressure to scale.

Lenovo’s message at the CES is that it no longer wants to be seen only as a PC maker adapting to the AI age. Thus, with Nvidia at its side and a growing lineup of AI-driven devices and platforms, it is trying to claim a seat at the table of companies shaping how AI is built, deployed, and used.

Memory Takes the Lead as AI Fuels a Fresh Semiconductor Rally

0

Semiconductor stocks have started the year on a strong footing, with gains concentrated not in flashy logic chips but in a quieter, more fundamental corner of the industry: memory.

Shares of the world’s biggest memory makers have surged, reflecting how artificial intelligence is reshaping demand patterns across the chip sector and tightening supply in critical components.

South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, the two largest memory chipmakers globally, are up 11.5% and 15.9% respectively so far this year. In the United States, Micron has climbed 16.3%. The rally comes as investors bet that AI-related demand, which drove chip markets through 2025, is not fading but intensifying.

At the heart of the move is memory’s central role in AI computing. Training and running large AI models designed by companies such as Nvidia and AMD requires vast amounts of fast, high-capacity memory to move data efficiently between processors. As cloud providers and tech giants pour billions of dollars into AI data centers, memory has emerged as a bottleneck.

One segment has been especially important: dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, used extensively in AI servers. Prices for DRAM surged sharply in 2025 as demand outpaced supply, and that pressure has not eased. Counterpoint Research expects memory prices to rise another 40% through the second quarter of 2026, extending what analysts increasingly describe as a full-blown cycle rather than a brief spike.

“The recent rally across the semiconductor space has been driven largely by the memory side of the market rather than logic chips,” Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, said in an email to CNBC. “We’re seeing a combination of very strong demand from AI workloads and relatively constrained supply, particularly in high-bandwidth memory, which is essential for training and running large AI models.”

High-bandwidth memory, or HBM, has become one of the most sought-after components in the AI supply chain. It sits close to processors in advanced packaging configurations, enabling faster data transfer and lower power consumption. SK Hynix is widely seen as a leader in this area, supplying HBM used in some of Nvidia’s most powerful AI accelerators, a position that has strengthened its earnings outlook.

That backdrop explains the optimism heading into earnings season. Samsung is expected to report a 140% jump in fourth-quarter operating profit, according to LSEG estimates, marking a sharp turnaround after a prolonged downturn in its memory business. Micron’s earnings per share are forecast to rise more than 400% year-on-year in the December quarter, reflecting both higher prices and improving utilization rates.

The rally has spilled beyond memory producers themselves. Investors are increasingly positioning for a broader AI-driven expansion across the semiconductor value chain. Intel shares are up 7.6% year-to-date, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chipmaker, has gained 10%. Both companies manufacture a wide range of chips and are expected to benefit as customers ramp up spending on advanced semiconductors tied to AI workloads.

Equipment suppliers are also riding the wave. ASML, the Dutch firm whose lithography machines are essential for producing the most advanced chips, has seen its shares rise 15.2% this year. Bernstein on Sunday raised its price target on ASML from 800 euros to 1,300 euros, implying about 24% upside from Tuesday’s trading level.

“ASML stands to benefit enormously from the wave of capacity expansion planned for 2026 and 2027,” Bernstein analysts wrote, pointing specifically to memory. They said the company would gain “from the upcoming DRAM super cycle,” as manufacturers invest heavily in new fabs and more advanced production lines.

That link is crucial. As memory makers respond to tight supply and strong pricing by expanding capacity, demand for ASML’s tools rises in tandem. Advanced DRAM and HBM production requires cutting-edge manufacturing equipment, locking ASML deeper into the AI investment cycle.

Recent signals from industry executives have reinforced the bullish narrative. SK Hynix has pointed to the possibility of an extended HBM supercycle, suggesting demand could remain elevated well beyond a single year.

“Recent comments from SK Hynix pointing to a potential HBM supercycle have reinforced the idea that this is not just a short-term bounce, but a more structural shift linked to the ongoing build-out of AI infrastructure,” Barringer said. “That has helped improve sentiment across the sector, especially for companies with direct exposure to AI-driven memory demand.”

The emerging picture is one where memory, long treated as the most cyclical and volatile part of the semiconductor industry, has become central to the AI story. As long as companies continue to scale data centers and push larger, more data-hungry models, memory demand is likely to stay tight.

For investors, this has reframed how the semiconductor rally is being judged. This is not simply about who designs the smartest AI chips, but about who controls the components that make those chips usable at scale. So far in 2026, memory makers are winning that argument.