Africa’s commodity export value declined by 5.6% between 2021 and 2023, dragged down by a 20% fall in average oil prices and dwindling export volumes from its top crude producers — Nigeria, Angola, and Algeria.

This is according to a newly released report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) titled The State of Commodity Dependence 2025, which paints a stark picture of the continent’s heavy reliance on raw exports and deepening exposure to global shocks.

UNCTAD attributed the downturn to a combination of weak oil demand and production inefficiencies in Africa’s major oil economies.

“Africa, by contrast, saw a 5.6% drop in the value of its commodity exports… mainly due to a 20% drop in average oil prices and a significant decline in export volumes from the continent’s leading oil exporters, namely Algeria, Angola and Nigeria,” the report stated.

The UN body revealed that more than two-thirds of developing countries—95 out of 143—remained commodity-dependent between 2021 and 2023. The situation is even more alarming among the world’s poorest nations, with over 80% of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) still highly dependent on exports of primary products.

“Such dependence, long been a global concern, hinders economic resilience and leaves developing nations vulnerable to price volatility and external shocks,” UNCTAD warned, urging a push towards value addition and structural diversification.

Commodity exports—ranging from crude oil and gas to cocoa, copper, and coffee—still account for about one-third of global trade. But while the value of overall global merchandise trade expanded by 25.6% from 2012 to 2014, to 2021, to 2023, commodity exports grew by just 15.5% over the same period, signaling slower growth in resource-dependent economies.

Energy still leads, but agriculture and mining gain ground

Despite a decline in its share, energy remained the single largest contributor to commodity trade, accounting for 44.5% of total global commodity exports between 2021 and 2023. This marked a decline from 52.1% a decade earlier, reflecting shifting global energy dynamics and weakening demand for fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, agriculture and mining exports gained prominence. Agricultural goods surged 34% to nearly $2.3 trillion during the period, with food products making up nearly 90% of that value. Mining products—such as ores, metals, and industrial minerals—averaged $1.65 trillion in annual export value, a 33.4% increase over the past decade, and now contribute 23% of global commodity trade.

Nigeria is among the laggards in trade growth and digital shift

UNCTAD’s July 2025 Global Trade Update further underlined Nigeria’s sluggish participation in global trade growth. While developed countries saw a 4% increase in imports quarter-over-quarter, developing nations, including Nigeria, experienced declines.

The agency warned that many commodity-dependent economies like Nigeria continue to export over 80% of their raw materials without value addition. This weakens their bargaining position in international markets and exposes them to greater risk from price fluctuations and trade disruptions.

To reduce vulnerability and promote sustainable growth, the report recommends a clear shift toward processing and manufacturing, especially in Africa, where over 90% of extractive and agricultural commodities are exported without transformation.

With oil revenues stagnating and economic buffers wearing thin, the call to diversify has grown louder. UNCTAD’s findings underscore the urgency of rethinking development models that hinge on unrefined resources, for Africa, and particularly Nigeria.

President Donald Trump announced a landmark trade agreement between the United States and the European Union on Sunday, narrowly averting a potentially bruising tariff war just days before the August 1 deadline.

The deal, reached after intense negotiations with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods entering the U.S., including automobiles, while also delivering massive EU commitments to U.S. energy, military, and investment markets.

The agreement represents a middle ground between Trump’s earlier 30% tariff threat and the EU’s demand to retain 10% baseline rates. It also comes with significant concessions from Brussels, including a $750 billion purchase of U.S. energy and $600 billion in additional EU investment into the American economy, on top of existing levels. Trump said the EU would also purchase “hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment,” although he didn’t disclose an exact amount.

“This is a very powerful deal. It’s a very big deal. It’s the biggest of all the deals,” Trump declared Sunday.

Von der Leyen, echoing Trump’s tone, called the agreement “a good deal, a huge deal, with tough negotiations.”

Tariff Terms and Exemptions

The 15% tariff will apply to a wide range of European exports, with major implications for industries like automobiles and consumer goods. However, certain sectors such as aircraft and aerospace components, specific chemicals, and pharmaceuticals are exempt, von der Leyen said. Notably, the newly imposed 15% tariff will not be added on top of any existing tariffs, providing a modicum of relief to European exporters.

The move comes as both sides scrambled to avoid a collapse in talks, which had been teetering until just days ago. Trump, in a press briefing before his meeting with von der Leyen, had pegged the chances of a deal at “50-50.” European officials had been preparing for a breakdown, authorizing counter-tariffs and even considering deployment of the EU’s “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” which some in Brussels described as the bloc’s “trade bazooka.”

$1.35 Trillion in Economic Commitments

Beyond tariffs, the deal is notable for its sheer economic scale. The $750 billion EU commitment to U.S. energy — including liquefied natural gas, oil, and renewables — represents one of the largest single pledges ever made by the bloc. It underscores Europe’s intent to diversify energy sources amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.

The EU also committed to $600 billion in new investments across U.S. infrastructure, tech, and manufacturing, a move Trump said would drive American jobs and supply chain independence.

While Trump touted the military procurement component, von der Leyen offered little detail, sparking speculation about future defense contracts involving NATO-aligned purchases of American aircraft, defense systems, and cybersecurity technologies.

European Leaders Weigh In

European capitals responded with a mix of relief and caution. Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin praised the agreement as a stabilizing force, saying it “brings clarity and predictability” to the trading relationship, but acknowledged that higher tariffs would “make trade between the EU and the US more expensive and more challenging.”

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz — whose country’s powerful auto sector stood to lose the most — welcomed the outcome, emphasizing that reducing auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% was a lifeline.

“With the agreement in the EU-US negotiations on tariffs, a trade conflict, which would have hit the export-oriented German economy hard, has been avoided,” Merz said in a statement.

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof offered a more tempered reaction, writing on X: “No tariffs would have been better, but this deal brings clarity for our businesses and provides more market stability.”

Averting a Crisis

The deal averts what economists and trade experts had warned would be a mutually damaging showdown between the world’s two largest economic blocs. In 2024, U.S.-EU trade in goods and services totaled €1.68 trillion ($1.97 trillion), with the EU running a €50 billion overall surplus, according to the European Council.

Brussels had been under pressure to hold the line, especially after Washington’s hardline stance in previous trade spats with Canada, Mexico, and China. The threat of steep tariffs had rattled global markets, and the EU’s decision to meet Trump halfway — while extracting carve-outs and investment guarantees — is being hailed in diplomatic circles as a pragmatic compromise.

But critics say the burden of higher tariffs will be felt by consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. The agreement also leaves unresolved questions about how the new investment figures will be tracked, or whether the bloc’s military purchases will materialize at the scale Trump suggested.

Trump’s Trade Doctrine Holds

Sunday’s announcement adds to Trump’s growing list of bilateral trade deals, part of a broader shift away from multilateralism. It also marks a significant political victory for the president ahead of the fall legislative session, reinforcing his argument that the “America First” doctrine can deliver massive economic concessions from traditional allies.

For the European Union, the deal buys time and certainty — but at a cost. For the U.S., it underscores Trump’s willingness to threaten economic pain to secure strategic and financial wins. The world’s two largest trade powers may have averted a war, but the balance of power, many believe, has tilted unmistakably.

After months of tense negotiations, the U.S. and European Union have reached a trade agreement that includes a 15% tariff on most EU exports, plus automobiles, Bloomberg reports. The deal arrives days before the two major trading partners had threatened to impose rival 30% levies that would have “delivered a hammer blow” to global trade. The EU will also purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and invest $600 billion in the U.S. Meanwhile, China and the U.S. are reportedly in talks to extend their tariff truce.

Last week, Nigeria was awash with official data, led by the report from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded 3.3% growth in the second quarter of 2025. With the buzz the numbers are generating, renowned economist Bismarck Rewane is urging caution: numbers may be improving, but if people don’t feel the impact, then the celebration is misplaced.

In a sweeping review of the country’s macroeconomic outlook, Rewane weighed in on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to retain the benchmark interest rate at 27.5%, the recently released 3.13% GDP growth figures, and the strengthening of the naira—warning that while these indicators reflect progress, the lived reality for many Nigerians is still grim.

Speaking in an interview with ChannelsTV, following the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) latest decision, Rewane described the CBN’s rate retention as a conservative but wise move.

“The market was divided. Some felt it was time to bring down rates by 25 basis points. Others wanted it retained. I think the committee did the right thing,” he said.

Over the past two years, interest rates have been raised six times, held steady three times, and only cut once, resulting in a cumulative increase of 8.75%. Inflation, though still troubling, has shown a gradual decline during that period.

Rewane underscored that the MPC was being cautious due to persistent vulnerabilities at home and global uncertainties abroad.

“Inflation is still a hydra-headed beast,” he warned. “You don’t go precipitously to reduce rates and then backtrack.”

He pointed to modest improvements: the naira has appreciated about 6.6% over two months, trading around N1,528 to the dollar, stronger in the parallel market than in the official window, a rare occurrence in more than a decade. Logistics costs have eased, and petrol prices fell by 4.4% to N865 per liter in the last month. Yet, these are far from signs of a fully recovered economy.

While Nigeria’s GDP figures for the first half of 2025 offered cause for optimism, showing a growth rate of 3.13%, Rewane was quick to temper expectations.

“It’s not yet Uhuru,” he said, reiterating that the GDP growth must translate into better living conditions. The country, now the fourth largest economy in Africa behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, has a rebased GDP of around $250 billion.

In the world, it is number 40. The goal before was for Nigeria to be within the top 20 countries in the world. We are now number 40. The income per head in Nigeria is $1,000 compared to South Africa, where it’s $5,000. Our share of global GDP is 0.23% and our share of the global population is 2.9%. This economic growth shows an upward trend.

“Well, we still have work to do. And let me make it clear, the goal, as pointed out by the president, is that we should be at $1 trillion by 2030. Today, we are growing at 3.1%. For us to go from $250 billion to $1 trillion, we need to grow at 15%. That’s not going to happen quickly except certain things change,” he said.

Despite the little gain the naira recorded, Rewane warned that the currency’s future remains shaky. The naira has appreciated 8% year-to-date, but largely against a weakened dollar. Compared to the pound and euro, its performance is less impressive. He cautioned that if crude oil prices fall below $65 per barrel, the gains in the naira’s value could be wiped out quickly.

“Nigeria is playing it safe to avoid market flip-flops. What we’ve earned is a reputation of being cautious, stable, and consistent,” he said, emphasizing that price stability remains a central mandate for the CBN.

On inflation’s toll on households, Rewane painted a bleak picture. “Last year, in July, a bag of rice cost N84,000. It’s now N87,000. That’s up 3.57%, though it had previously dropped before rebounding,” he explained.

Wheat flour has jumped from N59,500 to N65,000, while chicken drumsticks are now N5,500, up 22%. Eggs rose 5.7% to N5,500, pepper soared 50% to N90,000, and tomatoes spiked 83%. Only garri saw a decline, from N46,000 to N33,000.

In the non-food category, costs continue to climb. Transport fares from Lagos to Benin rose from N25,000 to N28,250. Airfares from Lagos to Abuja have surged 31% from N152,000 to N200,000. Lonart syrup, a common malaria medication, rose from N3,800 to N4,600. Only cooking gas became more affordable, dropping from N15,060 to N11,875.

“That’s good, but you have to have the food to cook. Right now, you have the gas, but there’s hardly any food to cook in it,” he said.

Rewane emphasized that Nigeria must shift from simply celebrating statistical growth to ensuring an inclusive economic impact.

“What we want to avoid are happy statistics and unhappy people. How are we going to do that? You can grow as much as you want. You can do all, it must be about the welfare of the people. The people must feel it, must be happy about it. If not, you will have happy statistics and unhappy people,” he said.

He stressed the need for redistribution and economic planning that prioritizes poverty reduction and job creation. According to Rewane, the path forward requires deliberate efforts to close the gap between macroeconomic success and household realities.