President Donald Trump is on the verge of achieving one of his most consequential legislative victories yet, after the House of Representatives on Thursday narrowly passed his sweeping tax-and-spending package—dubbed the “One Big, Beautiful Bill”—marking a historic advance for his domestic agenda.

The bill passed by a vote of 218-214, with two Republicans—Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania—joining every Democrat in voting against it. The narrow approval came after intense, last-minute pressure from Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who spent days trying to wrangle skeptical GOP lawmakers amid growing concerns over the bill’s deficit implications.

The legislation, which includes trillions of dollars in tax cuts, heightened immigration enforcement spending, and large-scale Medicaid cuts, passed the Senate earlier this week by a single vote—51-50—requiring Vice President JD Vance to break the tie. Republicans hold only slim majorities in both chambers.

A Late-Night Push to Flip Dissenters

The House vote followed a dramatic overnight push to flip a handful of GOP holdouts who had initially blocked a procedural vote on Wednesday night. The impasse delayed floor action for several hours until four of the five Republican defectors ultimately reversed course by 3:30 a.m. ET Thursday, allowing the final vote to proceed later in the day.

According to White House aides, Trump had been personally involved in lobbying members, making calls, and issuing public warnings that failure to pass the bill would be a “betrayal” of the conservative base. The president had long set a July 4 deadline for final passage, tying the bill’s success to national pride and political momentum ahead of the election season.

Sweeping Overhaul and Deep Cuts

The legislation enshrines large tax cuts aimed at both individuals and corporations, expands border security spending, and imposes strict new work requirements on Medicaid eligibility. But it has drawn sharp rebukes from Democrats, who argue it will deepen inequality and leave millions of low-income Americans without access to healthcare and basic support services.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., led the opposition with a marathon eight-hour, 44-minute floor speech that broke the chamber’s record for the longest in history. Jeffries accused Republicans of waging a “chainsaw” campaign against core safety-net programs, warning that the legislation would devastate the most vulnerable Americans.

Deficit Concerns and Political Calculations

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the bill will add $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade—an alarming figure that has drawn concern even from some fiscal hawks within the Republican Party. The national debt currently sits at over $36 trillion. The White House has dismissed the CBO’s projections, claiming the agency’s analysis was politically motivated.

House Republicans maintain that the package will drive long-term economic growth by reducing what they label as “waste, fraud, and abuse” in entitlement programs and by encouraging work and private investment.

More than 71 million Americans are currently enrolled in Medicaid. The proposed changes could see millions dropped from coverage in the coming years. Republicans argue that the new work requirements and tighter eligibility criteria are aimed at making the system more efficient and sustainable.

Tariffs Looming, Economic Uncertainty Grows

The bill’s passage also comes amid growing global uncertainty about Trump’s economic strategy. The president is set to reintroduce a sweeping series of “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners by July 9—a move economists warn could further strain U.S. trade relationships and global supply chains.

Investors and foreign governments are closely watching how Trump’s legislative and trade ambitions will collide in the weeks ahead, especially with major changes to healthcare, tax law, and border policy now poised to be signed into law.

Trump is expected to sign the bill in a major White House ceremony before July 4, positioning it as a centerpiece of his reelection campaign and a defining contrast to what he has called “years of bureaucratic failure in Washington.”

If signed into law, the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” would mark the most comprehensive overhaul of domestic policy in a generation, reshaping the role of government in everything from health care and immigration to taxes and trade.

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.7% of GDP in 2025, reversing a modest improvement seen in 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned in its latest Article IV report.

The expected deterioration underscores deep-seated vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s public finance structure, still heavily exposed to oil revenue volatility and compounded by growing expenditure pressure.

The IMF’s projection is markedly higher than the 3.9% deficit outlined in Nigeria’s 2025 federal budget, revealing a likely revenue shortfall as global oil prices remain under pressure and domestic production underwhelms.

Already, the Fund estimates that budget assumptions—set around 1.78 million barrels per day at $77 per barrel—are far too optimistic. Instead, IMF staff forecast lower production levels around 1.45 mbpd and a global oil price average of $70 per barrel. This would severely undermine Nigeria’s federally retained earnings and constrain overall budget implementation.

In 2024, Nigeria managed to reduce its fiscal deficit from 4.8% of GDP in 2023 to 4.1%, largely due to exchange-rate-induced gains in oil-related revenue and improved non-oil tax collection. However, those gains are proving unsustainable in 2025, with the country likely to slide back into deeper deficit territory. Notably, interest payments already consume a staggering over 100% of federal revenue, according to the IMF’s debt sustainability analysis, raising fears about future borrowing and debt rollover risks.

Spending, Revenue Mismatch Persists

On the spending side, government wage bills and pension liabilities are projected to grow by double digits, especially following new wage awards and security force recruitment. At the same time, Nigeria’s fuel subsidy removal—hailed as a fiscal reform milestone—is yielding lower-than-expected savings. While the government expected subsidy savings equivalent to 2% of GDP in 2024, the IMF said only N1.1 trillion (around 0.6% of GDP) was realized, mainly due to reintroduced price caps and incomplete market liberalization.

The revenue side shows promise, but progress remains slow. The ongoing tax reform roadmap aims to expand the country’s narrow tax base by introducing measures like e-invoicing, VAT automation, and digital economy taxation. However, implementation has been patchy across Nigeria’s 36 states, many of which still lack the capacity to enforce modern tax collection systems.

According to the IMF, Nigeria’s general government revenue stood at 7.3% of GDP in 2024, far below the sub-Saharan African average of 13–15%. Although the Value Added Tax (VAT) and Company Income Tax (CIT) reforms have begun to improve non-oil revenue mobilization, their impact will only materialize in the medium term, the Fund said.

Structural Pressures, Mounting Debt

Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio remains moderate at around 46%, but the structure of the debt is becoming increasingly unsustainable. Over 70% of federal government borrowing is now done at double-digit domestic interest rates, with foreign investors still wary of macroeconomic uncertainty and FX volatility.

Efforts to raise funds through Eurobonds or concessional loans have so far been cautious, as authorities seek to avoid piling up expensive foreign currency liabilities. The IMF noted that the government has ruled out new borrowings from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) via the Ways and Means facility, a previous source of deficit monetization that had stoked inflation and weakened the naira.

The Fund also emphasized the need for a flexible macroeconomic framework, calling on authorities to align fiscal and monetary policies, strengthen exchange-rate stability, and ensure better cash management across MDAs.

IMF Recommendations

To bridge the fiscal gap and ensure long-term sustainability, the IMF made several key recommendations:

• Fully liberalize the fuel market to capture the full value of subsidy removal, including implementing an automatic petrol pricing formula;
• Accelerate tax reforms, particularly by unifying VAT administration, expanding excise coverage, and removing inefficient tax exemptions;
• Rationalize capital spending, prioritizing projects with high economic returns while shelving low-impact ones;
• Cap recurrent expenditure growth, especially in non-essential sectors;
• Establish a fiscal anchor, such as a debt service-to-revenue cap, to guide borrowing and expenditure discipline.

The Fund’s warning comes as Nigeria grapples with rising inflation, volatile FX markets, and subdued growth, compounding fiscal stress. Analysts say that unless the government significantly scales up revenue and cuts wasteful spending, the projected deficit could even exceed 5% of GDP in a downside scenario involving further oil shocks or naira depreciation.

The Ministry of Finance is expected to revise its Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) by September, possibly adjusting budget assumptions to reflect lower oil revenue. Meanwhile, the 2025 Tax Reform Bills – signed into law last week – are expected to enable additional revenue-generating measures.

The report concludes that while Nigeria has taken bold steps to reform its economy, the road ahead remains fragile. Sustaining reforms in the face of political pushback, revenue shortfalls, and inflationary pressures will be key to stabilizing Nigeria’s fiscal health.

In a shift that signals a thaw in escalating tech tensions between Washington and Beijing, the U.S. government has rescinded its export restrictions on advanced chip design software to China. The decision, confirmed by three of the largest players in the electronic design automation (EDA) industry—Siemens EDA, Synopsys, and Cadence—marks a potentially significant de-escalation in the ongoing U.S.-China technology trade conflict.

The companies said Thursday that they each received formal notification letters from the U.S. Department of Commerce stating that the previous licensing requirements imposed on exports to China had been reversed. The letters were issued just weeks after the Department informed these firms, on May 23, that they must obtain licenses before selling chip design software and related technologies to Chinese clients.

With the restrictions now lifted, Germany’s Siemens AG, whose U.S.-based semiconductor software unit Siemens EDA is headquartered in Oregon, confirmed it had already restored full access to its restricted technologies. Sales and customer support services to Chinese firms have resumed, the company said. U.S.-based Synopsys and Cadence also confirmed receipt of the reversal order and indicated they are in the process of restoring services to their Chinese clients.

Background and Market Impact

The electronic design automation (EDA) software provided by these firms is critical to the design and manufacturing of semiconductors, including those powering artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and advanced computing systems. The global EDA market is overwhelmingly dominated by the U.S., with Synopsys holding 31% market share, Cadence 30%, and Siemens EDA 13%, according to 2024 figures from TrendForce.

The recent rollback of restrictions comes amid signs of a broader trade détente between the U.S. and China. Last week, Beijing signaled it had reached conditional agreements with Washington to resume some technology exchanges, including limited exports of rare earth materials and joint research frameworks. The lifting of chip software controls appears to be a reciprocal gesture from the U.S., reflecting cautious optimism in repairing fractured trade ties.

Shares of both Synopsys and Cadence surged by about 5% following the announcement, reflecting investor relief over the regained access to China—one of the world’s largest semiconductor markets. Synopsys CEO Sassine Ghazi had earlier flagged a noticeable revenue slowdown from Chinese customers during the company’s second fiscal quarter ending April 30, with China accounting for roughly 10% of its $1.6 billion revenue during the period.

Industry analysts see the move as not just a business reprieve, but a strategic recalibration. For over a year, EDA companies had been caught in the crosshairs of U.S. efforts to choke off China’s access to advanced semiconductor capabilities. The licensing requirement introduced in May came on the heels of broader bans targeting hardware—such as Nvidia and AMD’s AI chips—on national security grounds.

With the rollback now in effect, the Trump administration appears to be balancing its national security concerns with the economic interests of U.S. tech firms, many of which depend heavily on overseas markets. The reversal also acknowledges China’s progress in localizing its chip ecosystem and designing homegrown alternatives. Synopsys had noted in prior earnings calls that Beijing had accelerated policies to build its own EDA industry, heightening the urgency for U.S. firms to stay competitive through continued market access.

The EDA policy shift also underscores a broader recalibration in U.S.-China relations, particularly in the technology sphere. As both powers edge toward a new phase of strategic competition, there is growing recognition that mutual interdependence—especially in foundational technologies like semiconductors—cannot be severed overnight without global economic fallout.

Restoring software export rights is seen as one of several confidence-building steps. It comes amid tentative discussions around a new U.S.-China trade framework that could involve limited cooperation in AI safety standards, rare earth mining, and green technology development.

While neither side has confirmed the details of any formal tech truce, the Commerce Department’s quiet reversal—without a formal public announcement—underlines that Washington is moving cautiously, perhaps testing the waters for more pragmatic engagement.