Post-Thanksgiving Market Pattern Returns as RSI and MACD Flip Green

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November 29, 2025

The phrase “Post-Thanksgiving market pattern returns as RSI and MACD flip green” captures a timely observation from the crypto and broader stock markets as of November 29, 2025.

This refers to a recurring seasonal bullish trend observed in late November and December, where reduced trading volumes around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday often coincide with momentum recoveries.

In 2025, this pattern has materialized prominently in the cryptocurrency sector, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from oversold levels and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing into positive territory—key “green” signals for traders indicating potential upward continuation.

While the pattern has historical precedents in both crypto and equities, this year’s iteration is amplified by dovish Federal Reserve expectations and year-end optimism. Historically, U.S. stock markets exhibit modest gains during Thanksgiving week averaging ~0.5% for major indices since 2000, driven by light volumes, holiday sentiment, and portfolio rebalancing.

This often extends into the “Santa Claus rally” last week of December and first week of January, with S&P 500 returns averaging 1.4–1.5% and positive outcomes ~75% of the time dating back to 1928. In crypto, a similar “hidden” pattern emerged in 2022 and 2023.

Post-Thanksgiving exhaustion of sellers led to sharp reversals, with RSI normalizing and MACD turning bullish after November lows. In 2025, Bitcoin and major altcoins bottomed earlier in November amid forced selling. By Thanksgiving, the average RSI across top assets rose from extreme lows <30, oversold into neutral/bullish territory >50.

Simultaneously, the normalized MACD flipped positive for the first time since early November, signaling momentum recovery. This mirrors 2022–2023 conditions, where taker CVD cumulative volume delta neutralized, ending liquidation cascades.

Equities posted their strongest Thanksgiving week in 13 years, with the S&P 500 up ~1.5% mid-week and Nasdaq gaining 4.2%. All major indices closed green for the full holiday week—the first time in 9 years—fueled by tech/AI outperformance and small-cap rotation. VIX volatility normalized to 17.2% below its 12-month average, unwinding prior hedges.

Bullish shift from oversold; room for upside without overbought (>70). 2022/2023: Rebounded post-seller exhaustion, leading to 20–30% BTC gains into December. Histogram +7.29; line crossed above signal. Positive momentum flip; bullish divergence emerging.

2022/2023: Turned green after November lows, correlating with neutral CVD and risk-on flows. Holiday retail spending hit records $6.4B online on Thanksgiving, +5.3% YoY, boosting consumer cyclicals. Fed rate-cut odds surged to 80–85% for December from 30% last week, easing macro fears.

In stocks, S&P 500 futures broke above the 50-day MA ~6,801 resistance, with 72% breadth advancers vs. decliners. Crypto’s flip aligns with Bitcoin dominance during liquidity crunches, per CryptoQuant data.

Low holiday volumes ~50–70% of normal amplify drifts but reduce conviction—Monday opens could see a -0.26% “Cyber Monday drawdown” before Santa rally resumption. Broader factors like upcoming jobs data in December 6 or FOMC in December 10 could disrupt.

This pattern suggests a “platform” for risk assets into year-end, with crypto potentially targeting 20–30% upside echoing prior years and stocks eyeing S&P 6,953 ATH resistance.

Traders should monitor for sustained volume post-holiday; a close above key MAs would confirm. For conservative plays, use MACD/RSI confluence with stops below recent lows like BTC $85K support.

As crypto analysts on X noted, “Positioning is now clean… entering the strongest seasonal window.” Year-end flows favor longs, but scale in gradually amid chop. This setup underscores why holidays aren’t just for turkey—they’re for spotting momentum flips.

Stablecoin Market Capitalization Exceeds $303 Billion

By

Paul Ugbede Godwin

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November 29, 2025

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As of late November 2025, the total stablecoin market cap stands well above this threshold, ranging from approximately $303 billion to $310 billion across major tracking platforms.

This marks a significant milestone, reflecting continued growth in adoption for payments, DeFi, and cross-border transactions despite some recent monthly fluctuations.

USDT dominance at 60.39%; includes all chains. Slight daily uptick; covers fiat, crypto, and algorithmic types. First monthly decline in 26 months from October peak; down $4.54B overall. Stagnation after Q3 surge; implications for Ethereum liquidity. USDT/USDC hold ~93% share; total exceeds $260B earlier in month.

The market cap first crossed $280 billion in late October 2025 during a Q3 rally, driven by institutional inflows and regulatory clarity in regions like Hong Kong and Singapore. By November, it peaked near $310 billion before a minor pullback tied to broader crypto market cooling.

Tether (USDT) leads with ~$184 billion (60% share), followed by USD Coin (USDC) at ~$73–$75 billion. Others like DAI and Ethena USDe contribute smaller but growing shares. November saw the first monthly dip since 2022, but daily/weekly gains suggest resilience. Trading volumes hit $1.48 trillion mid-month, underscoring utility.

This growth signals stablecoins’ maturation as “digital dollars,” with over 90% USD-pegged. However, risks like peg deviations and regulatory scrutiny (e.g., U.S. bills for oversight) persist.

Drivers of the Stablecoin Surge

The stablecoin market cap’s climb past $300 billion in late 2025 peaking at ~$314 billion in October before stabilizing around $305–$310 billion marks a continuation of 47% year-to-date growth, outpacing 2024’s expansion.

This isn’t mere speculation—it’s fueled by structural shifts in finance, regulation, and tech. The U.S. GENIUS Act established federal standards for reserves, audits, and transparency, boosting confidence and enabling institutional entry.

Similar frameworks in the EU and Asia, plus softer stances from China and the Bank of England, have unlocked compliant innovation. Tether’s planned USAT launch and Circle’s NYSE debut with CRCL stock up 750% exemplify this.

Big players like JPMorgan (JPM Coin for settlements), Visa (USDC integration), Citigroup, Stripe (acquiring Bridge), Amazon, Walmart, and Societe Generale (USDCV on Ethereum/Solana) are piling in. This has driven ~$44 billion in Q3 inflows alone, with stablecoins now handling $19.4 billion in payments YTD.

Yield-bearing variants— Ethena’s USDe, up to $14 billion add passive income via RWAs and DeFi, capturing 4.5% of the market. Perpetual trading volumes hit $1 trillion monthly in September, with stablecoins as the liquidity backbone—USDT and USDC dominate 83–90% of the space.

Cross-border remittances and B2B payments surged 50x to $6.4 billion by August, thanks to low-fee chains like Tron $75.7 billion in USDT and Solana 70% growth to $13.7 billion. Active wallets jumped 53% to 30 million, signaling real adoption over hoarding.

Amid Bitcoin’s climb to $119K in earlier November and Ethereum’s 13% Q3 gain, stablecoins act as “dry powder”—a safe haven during volatility —USD fluctuations before rotating into alts. Non-USD fiat stables rose 30% to $533 million, diversifying pegs.

These factors create a virtuous cycle: clearer rules attract capital, which boosts volumes, enhancing utility and yields. Hitting $300+ billion elevates stablecoins to “systemically relevant” status—rivaling major U.S. money market funds or regional banks, and now ~7–8% of total crypto cap.

This shift has profound ripple effects. Stablecoins are reshaping infrastructure: daily volumes top $3.1 trillion surpassing Visa, nearing ACH, enabling 24/7, low-cost settlements. Could capture 12% of cross-border flows by 2026. B2B payments at 63% of $10B+ monthly volume; remittances/remittances via Tron/Ethereum; AI agents auto-hedging/yield-optimizing with stables.

Fuels $68.9B Ethereum TVL; acts as “internet’s money layer” for dApps, derivatives, and RWAs. Projections: $400B–$1T cap by 2026–2028. USDe/DAI growth; perpetuals boom; 259 active stables doubled since 2024.

88% of users now focus on non-trading savings, conversions. Ends USDT/USDC duopoly as fintechs launch rivals for yield capture. JPM/Circle real-time settlements; BlackRock’s BUIDL for tokenized yields; Noble/Plume integrations.

Market signal Indicates bullish capital flows—$300B isn’t “idle” but active, potentially igniting the next cycle. 44% Ethereum stable growth; 70% Solana surge; “programmable payments” layer. As scale grows, so does oversight—GENIUS Act mandates could squeeze non-compliant issuers. Global risks include peg breaks or AML gaps, as noted in recent SCMP analysis.

Recent 1.5% November dip first monthly decline in 26 months ties to broader crypto cooling; Ethereum feels it most via TVL stagnation. Over-reliance on USD pegs exposes to fiat volatility. At $300B+, failures could echo Terra 2022; overlooked crypto-finance risks loom.

Overall, this surge cements stablecoins as crypto’s killer app—driving efficiency and inclusion while pressuring TradFi to adapt. If trends hold, expect $500B+ by 2027, but watch for policy pivots.

China’s Manufacturing Struggles Expected to Continue as Policymakers Weigh Reform Versus Stimulus

By

Samuel Nwite

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November 29, 2025

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China’s factory sector is poised to shrink for the eighth consecutive month in November, highlighting the challenges facing policymakers as they navigate faltering domestic demand and weakening external markets.

A Reuters poll of 21 economists forecast the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) would inch up slightly to 49.2 from October’s 49.0, still below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. The data is due on Sunday.

The persistent softness underscores the difficulties manufacturers face in sustaining a post-COVID recovery. Many firms continue to grapple with fallout from the U.S.–China trade war, which has disrupted export channels and forced some manufacturers to seek alternative markets. These headwinds are compounded by sluggish domestic consumption, a prolonged property crisis, and mounting local government debt, leaving Beijing with few conventional levers to revive growth.

For decades, Chinese policymakers relied on two principal tools to sustain expansion. The first was revving up the industrial machine to boost exports whenever household spending slowed. The second was state-led infrastructure spending to drive momentum across local economies. Today, both strategies are under strain. Global economic slowdown and fiscal constraints at the local level mean that traditional stimulus alone may be insufficient, forcing officials to contemplate deeper structural reforms to correct supply-demand imbalances, lift household consumption, and address ballooning local debt.

Industrial profit data released Thursday further reinforced the narrative of weakness, falling short of expectations. Analysts attributed some of the shortfall to a high base effect from last year, when stimulus temporarily boosted profits. Yet the underlying trend remains concerning: third-quarter GDP growth slowed to its weakest pace in a year, emphasizing China’s vulnerability to both domestic and external pressures.

Policymakers face a delicate balancing act. While reforms are essential for long-term economic sustainability, implementing them now carries risks, especially against the backdrop of trade tensions with the United States. Abrupt measures could destabilize regions heavily reliant on government employment or industries susceptible to contraction, making the political calculus as critical as the economic one.

Even so, Beijing is exploring ways to stimulate consumption without relying solely on traditional stimulus. A new plan announced Wednesday targets consumer upgrades, focusing on rural areas and niche sectors such as pets, anime, and trendy toys. By encouraging discretionary spending, officials hope to generate a more market-driven source of growth and support domestic manufacturers as industrial output remains constrained.

Meanwhile, private-sector activity is expected to remain muted. Economists polled by Reuters forecast the private-sector RatingDog PMI at 50.5, slightly down from 50.6 in October, signaling only marginal expansion.

Comparing China to Other Major Economies

China’s manufacturing malaise contrasts sharply with trends in other major economies. In India, the industrial sector continues to expand, bolstered by domestic consumption, government investment, and growing foreign direct investment, particularly in sectors such as information technology and renewable energy infrastructure. The country’s manufacturing PMI has consistently hovered above the 50-point growth threshold, highlighting the divergence from China’s prolonged contraction.

In the Eurozone, manufacturing is grappling with uneven demand and energy-related cost pressures, but some countries have experienced modest recovery thanks to government stimulus and gradual stabilization of supply chains post-pandemic. Germany, Europe’s industrial engine, remains under pressure due to weakening exports, yet smaller economies such as Italy and Spain are showing pockets of resilience driven by domestic investment and service-sector strength.

The United States presents another contrast. While industrial growth has moderated amid rising interest rates, inflation pressures, and slowing exports, the manufacturing PMI has largely stayed in expansion territory, supported by strong technological investment and resilient domestic demand. The U.S. energy and tech sectors, in particular, have helped offset softness in traditional manufacturing.

This divergence illustrates the broader global challenge: China’s reliance on exports and heavy industry leaves it more exposed to trade shocks and cyclical slowdowns, whereas economies with more diversified domestic demand or technology-driven growth engines are faring comparatively better.

The Road Ahead for China

China’s policymakers face a critical juncture. Local governments’ stretched finances, persistent property sector challenges, and the trade war’s lingering effects constrain traditional stimulus options, emphasizing the need for sustainable structural reforms. Analysts note that targeted consumption initiatives may provide a temporary boost, but without addressing debt, labor, and efficiency constraints, industrial weakness is likely to persist.

Global markets are watching closely as China’s manufacturing output is considered not just a domestic concern. It has cascading implications for commodities, supply chains, and trade flows worldwide. Sunday’s PMI reading will be scrutinized not merely as a reflection of factory activity, but as a barometer of Beijing’s ability to navigate one of the most complex economic periods in recent memory.

Crypto Markets Dip is Cooling Off, Fear and Greed Index Rebounds Slightly from Extreme Fear Zone

By

Paul Ugbede Godwin

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November 29, 2025

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The cryptocurrency sector did endure a sharp sell-off in late October and early November, wiping out over $1.3 trillion in total market capitalization—from a peak near $4.2 trillion to a low of around $3 trillion by mid-November.

This downturn was exacerbated by leveraged liquidations totaling nearly $829 million in a single day, doubts over U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, and broader risk aversion spilling over from equities.

Bitcoin (BTC), the market bellwether, plunged from an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in early October to lows around $80,600–$81,800 by November 21, erasing all its 2025 gains at one point and dipping nearly 30% from its peak.

However, the past week has brought tentative relief, with initial stabilization and a modest rebound. The total crypto market cap has hovered around $3.09–$3.19 trillion, up slightly from its recent nadir, reflecting a 0.4–0.8% daily dip on November 28 but overall consolidation.

BTC has clawed back to $91,000–$94,900, staging a 3–5% recovery in the last few days, supported by easing bearish pressure in options markets and a shift in sentiment from “extreme fear” to “fear” on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Ethereum (ETH) has followed suit, stabilizing near $3,000 after testing $2,728 lows, while altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP show mixed but improving signals. Renewed optimism around an 85% probability of a December Fed rate cut has bolstered risk assets.

With the S&P 500’s historic 5% November reversal adding $2.75 trillion in value spilling positive momentum into crypto. This has helped BTC dominance hold at ~57%, underscoring its role as a safe haven within the sector.

U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $151 million in outflows on November 25 but have cumulatively netted $60.28 billion year-to-date, signaling sustained long-term interest despite short-term jitters. ETH ETFs flipped to inflows $96.67 million on the same day, and Solana ETFs added $9.7 million.

Short-term holder capitulation has eased, with oversold momentum indicators (e.g., RSI) flashing early recovery signals. Leverage unwinds from the sell-off appear contained, avoiding a deeper “crypto winter.”

Stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USDC maintain $184 billion and $76 billion in market caps, respectively, providing liquidity buffers during volatility. Regulatory developments, such as the EU’s new crypto data-sharing rules, add compliance headwinds but haven’t derailed the rebound.

Cautiously Bullish, But risks linger, analysts are divided but lean optimistic for year-end. Raoul Pal draws parallels to 2021’s rapid recoveries post-drawdown, while firms like Galaxy forecast BTC at $120,000 by December down from $185,000 pre-sell-off but still +30% from now.

More bullish calls from Ark Invest and others eye $175,000–$200,000 by mid-2026, driven by ETF adoption and halving aftereffects. That said, upcoming U.S. ddatavia retail sales, Fed minutes could reignite volatility if they signal tighter policy or economic weakness.

The market’s maturity—evident in quicker stabilizations—suggests this was a “contained shock” rather than systemic failure, but over-leveraged retail positions remain a vulnerability.

Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on Crypto

Federal Reserve rate cuts, by lowering the cost of borrowing and injecting liquidity into the economy, generally act as a tailwind for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

This stems from a “risk-on” environment where investors shift from low-yield safe havens to higher-return opportunities, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, the relationship isn’t linear—short-term volatility often spikes due to market anticipation or economic signals, while long-term effects lean bullish.

As of late 2025, with an 85% probability of a December 25-basis-point cut amid cooling inflation and softening labor data, crypto markets are pricing in renewed upside, though recent dips highlight caution.

Lower rates free up capital, weakening the U.S. dollar and encouraging investment in speculative assets. Crypto benefits as institutions reallocate from traditional fixed-income products to digital assets, driving inflows to ETFs and DeFi protocols.

In low-rate eras, yields on safe assets dwindle, making crypto’s high-reward potential more appealing. This mirrors equity rallies but amplifies in crypto due to leverage and 24/7 trading. Cuts often signal easing inflation fears, reinforcing BTC’s “digital gold” status. Stablecoins and layer-1 chains like ETH see secondary boosts from broader adoption.

Conversely, if cuts signal recession risks like the rising unemployment, initial “risk-off” sell-offs can occur, as seen in early 2020. Fed easing cycles have historically correlated with crypto bull runs, though causation involves broader factors like halvings or adoption waves.

2020’s initial dip was panic-driven, not cut-specific; rebounds tied to sustained easing. These patterns show cuts often trigger 30-100%+ gains within 3-6 months, but over-reliance on macro can lead to bubbles like 2021 peak before hikes.

CME FedWatch shows 85% chance of a 25 bps cut on Dec 17-18, up from 71% earlier in November, driven by youth unemployment at 9.3% and JOLTS data signaling weakness. Fed’s John Williams noted “room” for cuts as inflation cools to 2.9%.

October’s 25 bps cut weakened the USD, lifting BTC +40% initially but dipping 1.6% to $111K on hints it might be the last. September’s cut saw muted response, BTC flat at $115K, as markets were “front-running” easing. Overall, total crypto cap stabilized at $3.1T post-sell-off, with BTC dominance at 57%.

Analysts forecast BTC at $120K-$130K by year-end if cuts proceed, potentially extending to $175K in 2026 via ETF adoption. ETH and alts could rally 20-50% on DeFi inflows. Yet, risks include: Delays in tariff impacts could flush prices to $86K support.

In essence, Fed cuts historically supercharge crypto’s growth phase, turning liquidity into price momentum. For 2025’s cycle, expect consolidation turning to upside if December delivers—position via dollar-cost averaging, but hedge against FUD.

If risk appetite holds especially with equities rallying, we could see further upside into December. As always, crypto’s volatility demands caution—diversify, watch on-chain flows, and DYOR.

Nigeria Unveils Digital Single Travel Emergency Passport (STEP) to End Embassy Visits for Stranded Citizens

By

Samuel Nwite

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November 29, 2025

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The Federal Government of Nigeria has announced the imminent launch of the Single Travel Emergency Passport (STEP) in January 2026, a comprehensive digital solution designed to assist Nigerians abroad who lose their travel documents.

The new system promises a significant relief for the diaspora by eliminating the long-standing requirement to visit an embassy in person to secure emergency travel papers.

Minister of Interior, Dr. Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, made the announcement on Friday in Abuja during the official launch of the ECOWAS National Biometric Identity Card (ENBIC). He clarified that the STEP initiative will allow citizens who lose their passports to generate a single-entry emergency travel document using any mobile device, drastically streamlining the process.

This new digital document is set to replace the antiquated Emergency Travel Certificate (ETC) and is valid solely for a single entry back into Nigeria. The Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) had earlier announced the intention to introduce the STEP, confirming that the move forms part of wider reforms to strengthen border governance, enhance identity management, and align its operations with international migration standards.

Regional Integration and Modernization Drive

The launch of the STEP is a complementary component of Nigeria’s accelerated push for digital integration, standing alongside the newly launched ECOWAS National Biometric Identity Card (ENBIC). The ENBIC facilitates secure identity verification and easier travel within West Africa, reducing the pressure on the national passport system while reinforcing regional border security efforts.

Minister Tunji-Ojo urged Nigerians to trust the government’s capacity to tackle national challenges, calling for collective support for the ongoing security and administrative reforms that have been prioritized under the current administration.

The introduction of the STEP is the latest in a series of sweeping digital reforms rolled out by the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) over the past months, aimed at modernizing its operations and improving service delivery both at home and abroad.

The comprehensive overhaul by the NIS has already yielded substantial results across several key operational areas.

Due to efficiency upgrades, the government reported in July 2025 that over 3.5 million passports had been issued in under two years. These reforms have led to the expansion of enhanced passport centres nationwide, ensuring that every passport issued is now harmonised and compliant with global travel standards.

A massive boost to production capacity was achieved with the introduction of a centralized passport personalization system in September 2025. This state-of-the-art facility is capable of producing up to 5,000 passports daily, a monumental increase from the previous capacity of 250–300. This upgrade has enabled applicants to receive their passports within four to five hours once the personalization stage is reached.

To improve services for Nigerians abroad, the NIS launched a contactless biometric passport application system, initially starting with key countries such as the United States, Brazil, Jamaica, and Mexico. Furthermore, the Service launched a digital platform for the Combined Expatriate Residence Permit and Aliens Card (CERPAC), allowing expatriates to apply online for legal residence and work authorization in Nigeria, eliminating manual bottlenecks in the process.

These strategic initiatives, including the system upgrade on its domestic passport portal announced in January 2025, collectively demonstrate the Federal Government’s commitment to fully digitizing Nigeria’s migration and identity ecosystem, ultimately aiming for seamless, secure, and world-class service delivery for citizens and expatriates alike.

Post-Thanksgiving Market Pattern Returns as RSI and MACD Flip Green

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