Prediction market “mindshare” (a measure of online attention and discussion volume, often tracked via tools like Kaito AI) is surging back toward the all-time highs seen during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Kaito’s real-time data shows the sector’s overall mindshare hovering at around 23-25%, just shy of the ~27% peak from election night last November. This isn’t just hype; it’s backed by exploding trading volumes and fresh catalysts that are drawing in retail traders, institutions, and even mainstream media.
The 2024 election supercharged the space—Polymarket alone hit $3.8 billion in total volume, with $2.1 billion in October alone, outperforming traditional polls in accuracy for outcomes like Trump’s victory.
Fast-forward to 2025, platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt have secured CFTC approvals for expanded U.S. operations, including sports and economic event markets. Polymarket’s $112 million acquisition of a CFTC-licensed exchange in July opened doors for regulated on-chain trading, while Robinhood integrated Kalshi’s contracts, exposing 25 million users.
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Unlike 2024’s election obsession (which accounted for 80% of Polymarket’s traffic), 2025 volumes are spreading to sports (e.g., NFL futures, Super Bowl odds), crypto prices (Bitcoin hitting $128K?), and quirky events like “US confirms aliens in 2025” (9% odds on Kalshi). This broadens appeal and stabilizes liquidity.
New entrants like Limitless (on Base, backed by Coinbase Ventures with $7M raised) are capturing 23% of the sector’s mindshare, thanks to campaigns like Wallchain leaderboards (0.25% token allocation to top quackers) and rumors of Kaito integrations.
Myriad crossed $10M in USDC volume with 511K users, positioning prediction markets as a “next chapter in DeFi.” Flex Sports launched Solana-based live betting, and XO Market’s testnet (backed by Cyber.fund) adds conviction-based trading.
Tools like Grok 4 are now used for sentiment analysis the milesdeutscher’s framework scans CT for coin theses, while Kaito’s dashboards track mindshare shifts in real-time. This turns casual yappers into informed traders.
Volume and Mindshare Comparison: 2024 vs. 2025
Volumes exploded on election bets (e.g., Trump vs. Harris: $150M+), but post-election dipped to $10M daily. Accuracy was a win—markets nailed Trump’s odds at 56% when polls were 50/50. Volumes stabilized at $1B weekly (down from $2.6B peak but up overall), with Kalshi leading due to U.S. integrations.
Mindshare spikes tie to non-election events, like Fed rate cuts (two priced in by year-end) and sports (e.g., 25% odds on women’s leagues drawing ad dollars). This isn’t a fleeting pump—Interactive Brokers’ founder Thomas Peterffy predicts prediction markets could eclipse stock trading in 15 years by pricing “real-world expectations.” But challenges loom:
Outside mega-events, spreads widen (e.g., thin volumes on niche geo-markets like Ukraine ceasefire: 25% odds). CFTC’s eyeing bans on “public interest” bets (e.g., assassinations), and NFL integrity concerns could spill over. 2024 saw wash trading allegations on Polymarket; tools like Nasdaq’s surveillance are stepping in.
With AI oracles (e.g., Kaito as mindshare oracle) and cross-chain (e.g., Celestia rollups), volumes could hit $95B by 2035 (46% CAGR). Expect integrations with social (X badges for projects) and enterprise forecasting.
If regulators clamp down or liquidity dries up, it fades to niche DeFi. This mindshare surge signals prediction markets evolving from election gimmick to everyday info-tool. If you’re trading, focus on high-liquidity plays like Fed decisions or BTC milestones—skin in the game beats punditry every time.