Bear with this political junkie. People, Ukraine is saving President Biden’s presidency. He has executed a nuanced, thoughtful and globalized playbook on the Russia-Ukraine war. The Afghanistan exit punted his foreign policy as he allowed an auto-pilot strategy to play out. But in the current Ukraine paralysis, he has been BIDEN “Bring In Dependable, Experienced Nation-Builder”.
The way he has organized the world, including striking alignments with arch “enemies” like Venezuela (and Iran) to pursue a current opposition is legendary. Do not take it for granted that Biden believes that for him to thrive in Ukraine, Iran and Venezuela could be “friends”. It shows practicality, creativity and American sagacious philosophical mindset that the current “enemy” is the main focus. Simply, the issues with Iran and Venezuela can come later.
U.S. officials have demanded Venezuela supply at least a portion of oil exports to the United States as part of any agreement to ease oil trading sanctions on the OPEC member nation, two people close to the matter said.
U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday banned U.S. imports of Russian oil in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine, ramping up economic pressure on a key Venezuelan ally.
That was the man I joined his entourage a few years ago to Marrakesh, Morocco. He began his speech by thanking Moroccans as being one of the first nations to recognize the independence of the United States of America. Right there, the claps were to high heavens. Joe Biden is a real Joe, he connects. I watched Moroccans and everyone was happy: we extended hands to America when it needed it most.
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On the Ukraine crisis, I am not sure anyone would have executed this better than Biden. Ukraine is saving his Presidency because even here in America the atmosphere has changed: if inflation rises, it is not because Biden did not lead, but because Russia attacked Ukraine and distorted the world’s supply chain.
Covid-19 made him President (without Covid-19, Trump would have won re-election) and Ukraine will possibly save him some seats in November. If you remove the first and last characters in his name, it means IDE. In the Igbo Nation, that is a powerful word.
(Due to Covid-19, a really great economy under Trump collapsed. Also, the mail-in voting system which was adopted by many US states as a result of Covid-19 restriction was advantageous to Biden as his base traditionally does not do well on in-person voting. On election night, Trump was well ahead, but as those mailed ballots were tabulated, Biden took over.)
Yet, risk remains: If Putin decides to retaliate against say Poland for sending its weapons and fighter jets to fight in Ukraine, what Biden decides to do will determine the fate of humanity in the next coming weeks or months. What Biden does on that will be the most important decision he will be making in this war.
Big moments ahead for Biden.
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Comment: He has done well for giving Americans alternative energy sources. How about their European allies?. Should Putin cut gas supply to Europe in retaliation for oil sale sanctions, the economic and social impact will not only be felt in Europe.
My Response: Only Americans will re-elect Biden. He answers to them. If you check, he did not ask Europe to join in the oil ban because the European leaders have to survive elections. So, at the end, Ukraine has to deal with this because politicians look at election cycles. I wrote in the past that he may not ban Russian oil after he promised that everything he would do will be done alongside with Europe (allies). Until he banned oil. His ban has no great impact in the US. Yet, it is a ban for the records!
More so, Europe has to allow SWIFT to work for some Russian banks to ensure they can pay Russian for energy supplies. Those asking for 100% SWIFT ban do not understand that Europe cannot move to Africa where they can live without energy. So, by allowing some Russian banks to be on SWIFT, Europe can pay for energy supplies.
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Sadly from all your analysis, all that Biden has done was gpr himself and for the ge American people and NOTHING to help the peace, safety, and security of the Ukrainian people. He has shown No leadership in both helping prevent what is now a war nor in helping reconciliation. He is just playing what he knows to play best, using media narratives to garner alliances that makes no difference except historic record or being for against his enemies.
He is helping nothing else but American businesses and nothing about the Ukrainian economy or peace is being helped by all he has done or failed to do.
I won’t say more but this video has another side to the war other than the narrative that Biden is being made a peace nobel for pushing – https://youtu.be/TzgPJeYZaOU
He is a politician. They work to survive elections.
Comment: “He does things great leaders do: he looks out for his own. Yes, he has not sanctioned Russian oil and gas because it will affect his fellow Americans.” Ndubuisi Ekekwe on 4 March 2022 .Biden bans US imports of Russian oil and gas – 8 March 2022
My Response: If you check carefully, you will notice one thing: Europe did not join in the ban and without Europe, US’s ban has a marginal impact. US uses less than 3% of Russian energy but Europe depends on 40% of it. So, what President Biden banned is toothless as he did not require Europe to join. In my piece, I qualified that by noting that it would have to be along with Europe to reshape the equilibrium as they have collectively done everything. And Mr. Biden did not do that by asking Germany, Italy etc to join in the ban. Politically correct (he banned) but technically muted (no real impact because US does not depend on Russian for energy). The real ban is doing all with Europe.
It does sound to me like he played a good selfish polititics that favours him and his own at the expense of whoever.
His international “narrative framing politics and self preservation by perception generation games” worked well.
I have never believed in sanctions without real leadership of bridge building as it is often just a chess of calculated markets shifts in the real sense of it.
When there is a need for taking creatice steps to prevent a war, leaders ought to act and use bridge building first.
It is dark history repeating itself when world leaders sir idly and charge parties into war at the expense of citizens that aren’t theirs through rhetorics and bantering drums of war. A lot of what is ongoing is dependent on many years of bad politics by US and NATO which the current president of Ukraine in his naivity has taken steps oblivious of the complexities created before him.
I wish that world leaders would lead not sit idly giving empty speeches, framing blame games and inflammatory media chats that is neither building bridges or bringing parties to any new place of reconsideration of whi truly suffers whike the elephants fight – ordinary people.
Wars are needless and can always be prevented if leaders choose to lead!
It is politics and will remain politics. The world banned Russian from SWIFT (a network to wire money across the globe) but left a hole to enable Europe to keep paying for Russia’s oil. If the world was serious on SWIFT ban, do it 100%. Then next time you call, Russia will ask you to send the money in cash before gas will be shipped! But to avoid that, they did not do a 100% SWIFT ban as that would affect Europe badly.
Thank you Prof for all your candid analysis and it is indeed true.
I am just awed how the People of Ukraine are the loser and will ultimately be the greatest losers in this whole evolving historic tragedy.
How history will be told is indeed dependant on who is writing and who they write it to make case for. International politics is a scam and the game if chess in it is down to who you are.
This is an unbiased analysis. Thank you.