Nigeria’s next leader has one major assignment: restructure the country, financially and fiscally. President Buhari promised that but he did not deliver there. This redesign is fundamental, and is the only path to get people to believe again, on the promises of the nation. Yes, today’s Nigeria is not working for many people. And the major reason is clear: Nigeria does not offer any incentive for excellence, and because of that, productivity continues to drop, and regional comparative advantages in agriculture, mining, etc are muted.
In America, you can have your Silicon Valley and California and thrive. You can also have Florida and the nice beaches and do well. You can have your shale gas in Oklahoma and do well. You can have your big banks in New York and boom. You can have your farmlands in Alabama and party. Indeed, across America, by being decoupled from the center, states have found how to innovate and thrive. The end game: America is better because everyone is firing all the necessary cylinders.
In Nigeria, that is not the case: travel from Kano to Jigawa (I did that in 2019 on the invitation of the governor) and you will see a massive landmass. But a nation with that resource still needs a war-ravaged Ukraine to send it cheap food. That is unfortunate.
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Two kids wrote to study in our unity school system or the Federal Government Colleges. They’re in the same school and class. One has to score 173 to be admitted while another needs just 3, primarily because of “state of origin” quota system. How do you explain to the one who needs to score 173 that he belongs to the same country?
As Buhari winds down his second coming, he is aware that many in the Southeast will not miss him due to choices he made. If Atiku becomes the next President, many in the southern part of Nigeria will not play along since another northern president will replace another after 8 years. If Tinubu makes it, expect disconnections from the Southeast. That is natural: the government introduces quotas to reduce comparative advantages in areas of their strengths, but in areas they have limited strength (population), the government opens it up for competition. And if Obi wins, do not expect many in Sokoto to play along.
You can pretend that no one should care. But wait until you become a recipient of these demonic attacks. Like I have written here many times, if FUTO, my undergraduate school, had denied my automatic academic offer as my class’s best graduating student, preferring another person due to my state or tribe, I would never forgive the school.
Today, you can be #1 and not get it because your tribe is not the chosen, and #5 gets it. How would you feel that the prize of that hardwork was stolen from you and handed to another person? Nigeria does this many times daily in various forms, and people still think we can rise as a people.
People, irrespective of how you see this, the more we can get Nigeria to forget the center and become regionally focused, the better is the hope of ascension. For Obi, Atiku and Tinubu, fiscal federalism would be the most important mission if they hope to get Nigerians to dream and work for the rise of the nation.
Yet, people will still be bitter about who the president is but when they understand that at least their hardwork will help fix their roads and hospitals, they will feel better. Yes, if your roads, hospitals, etc are working, you may even forget who holds the title of President. With fiscal federalism, the corruption at the center will go because the center will not call the shorts at scale.
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Comment: “Nigeria does not offer any core incentive for excellence, and because of that, productivity continues to drop, and regional comparative advantages in agriculture, mining, etc are muted.” And yet the country is packed with brilliant people. Imagine if those incentives existed where Nigeria would be already. Now extrapolate that to the tomorrow of your dreams. Indeed, financial and fiscal reforms, coupled with excellence incentives, will bring a dawn of prosperity. But they must not forget about security – a situation that needs immediate attention as well.
My Response: When Nigeria was regionally configured, the Belgian parliament described it as a “virtuoso” economy as it argued that all aids, incentives, etc from Europe be removed for Nigeria. Nigeria was #1 on palm oil export, top on groundnut, etc. But that system was changed removing incentives for regions to explore comparative advantages since everything is combined and shared together.
If I make $1,000 and you make $2,000 and we send to an account (federal) which returns $1,500 to each of us, you will agree that you will not bother working to make $2,000 next time. But if you have a system where I pay tax on that $1,000 and you pay on your $2,000 (say 30% tax rate for each), nothing will stop your incentives.
That fundamental redesign from the old constitution to the current is the reason that brilliance has not shown because there is no incentive for any person to think big.
Comment 1R: Agreed that tax reform is one major element of the financial and fiscal retooling that need to be happen. So much more needs to happen also, basic planning and provisioning is scant as well – look at the rollout of the new Naira notes. How can a country introduce new notes yet not produce nowhere near enough to distribute properly? Also, with regard to the upcoming election I read yesterday that some people are having problems getting their voter registration/cards becasue there are none – ergo the planning and provisioning problem.
I am also aware of the Palm oil production issue. I wonder how many people actually know that Nigeria was the original, and largest, grower and producer of Palm oil? I have advocated for the return of the Palm industry to Nigeria and have faced opposition – in the form of negative remarks and sentiments regarding productive capabilities in and of Nigerians. Yet I scoff at that narrative: I am confident that given the right circumstances and (re)training Palm oil production could match that of Indonesia, Malaysia, or Thailand. Nigerians are as industrious and hard working as anyone else – the circumstances and incentives need to there, as you also stated, for progress to be realized. I believe.
Comment 2: I don’t think he has to “restructure.”
That word has been thrown around a lot for a few decades now.
The president has to competent enough to do a good job.
The results of Biden and Trump are clearer now.
Nigerians has to decide who can do a better job.
Elections have consequences.
My Response: “The results of Biden and Trump are clearer now.” – Biden has outperformed Trump in metrics that matter to most independents in America. Biden has created the most jobs at this time in his Presidency in decades than any other person. Biden has put China-tech in ways that it never anticipated (in more lethal ways than whatever Trump shows did), Biden has figured out how to “fight” Russia without declaring a war. For decades, he outperformed other presidents in midterms. Unless you are using Fox talking points, Biden has good results. (This is not to say I support his policies but for Independents, he seems to be doing the thing. For example, I would have preferred a peace agreement in Ukraine over killing sons and fathers)
Comment 2R: He has created the most jobs when every day people are talking about layoffs.
MSNBC, NBC, CNN all those garbage outlets and the claim that this is most jobs created is incredulous.
Biden would allow a Chinese spy balloon to monitor the US and that’s just last week.
Is that a story from FOX News?
The independent broke from him during the midterms but it wasn’t historic by any metric. The still lost the house.
The Ukraine War was a policy his and Obama’s administration pursed since ’08.
So, yes. The results have become much clearer.
My Response: “He has created the most jobs when every day people are talking about layoffs.” – “Half a million jobs in January ” – Fox News https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-economic-advisor-cites-job-report-proof-not-recessionary
“The independent broke from him during the midterms but it wasn’t historic by any metric” – typically you lose many seats in the Senate and House. He gained in the Senate and lost a few in the House. Possibly Independents broke from him but more Republicans voted for him since he would have achieved the Senate gain and small losses if Independent broke from him (I assume Democrats are with him).
Comment 2 – Another: [ ] in philosophy ( in all practicality) the structure of any human system- and the inherent incentives it embodies- does shapes the energy direction of the most talented members of such system/society. I respect and agree with this opinion of Professor Ndubuisi Ekekwe. United States( see it in the resulting developments that make up it federating units) is a beacon example of that. Dysfunctional fiscal structure is a serious adversary to the Nigeria development and prosperity; if we do not address that fundamental problem, sustainable progress would elude the country. Good and competent President is not enough.
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How possible is it for a president to restructure a country like Nigeria? We seem to be good at sending someone on a mission we know that he will fail, and once he fails, we thunder that he’s incompetent!
To talk about restructuring and get a buy-in across board, your believability quotient must be touching the sky, else expect others to finish you off with propaganda. So, how do you improve your believability? You must be able to do something meaningful with the present system, while at it, you will be hammering it to the ears of everyone that we could do much more if we restructure the current system!
Nigeria is a tribal country, it was not setup like a republic, and we ended up creating a 3-tier federal system, as against 2-tier, a serious anomaly. Even with the flawed federal system, it was built as a unitary system, and we ended up concentrating economic activity in just one location. Are you going to restructure without first rebalancing the flawed system?
A state like Akwa Ibom has the best waters in the land, but it has no seaport, how did we manage to do that? From Ibaka to Ibeno and down to Eastern Obolo, how can a country boast of such endowment and we are always talking about Lagos?
Let me not start yet.