North Korea launched another missile over the heads of Japanese. I called a friend in Japan to know how he was feeling. He was not happy. He noted that he would find it harder to trust any government, going forward. He was not happy because they had been promised for years, that Japan has anti-missiles to protect them. But on two live occasions, the Japanese military technology did not answer the calls. North Korean missiles flew over their heads. No interceptor was fired.
He was even more annoyed that the military was able to detect the missile seconds it was launched. But yet nothing happened. And in Japan, for months, they have been focusing on tracking any missile from North Korea. In other words, the launch was not a surprise. They expected the launch. But at the end, they could even blow it up.
Japan, U.S. and South Korea have extensive amalgam of radars in South Korea, the Sea of Japan and inside Japan, positioned and stationed for the two moments North Korea had demonstrated. U.S. has worked with these allies in developing and installing these tools.
Sure. Japan could have determined that it was not pointed at it. Yet, it flew over it. Or maybe, they wanted to know how far the missiles could go. For me, that was nonsense. That was an opportunity missed to test their defense systems with real missiles from an enemy fire.
Do not get me wrong. I just hope we do not put so much confidence in these defense technologies. All it takes is one. I mean one successful missile out of say 100 for bad things to happen.
In my opinion, U.S. should re-calibrate and call North Korea to the ceremony as a nuclear power and give it the book, DO NO EVIL, because it is now a nuclear power. Nothing else will work until we can relocate Japan and South Korea.
We continue to wish the good people of South Korea and Japan good luck because most are terrified. For me, I will not even enter plane as missiles could be flying. They are right to be worried .
In the end, the prospect of successful interception of one IRBM would come down to a great number of variables going in the favor of the United States and Japan. Even if one missile is successfully intercepted, the odds of going four-for-four with North Korea’s Hwasong-12 salvo over the Sea of Japan using SM-3s are likely to be vanishingly low.
Everyone needs to be worried because even in U.S., no one knows what they have there. It goes beyond fire and fury. This North Korean guy is a bad actor and the world must understand and deescalate the situation.
Trump has repeatedly responded to North Korea’s attempts to build up its nuclear arsenal and obtain a nuclear weapon capable of striking the U.S. mainland with fiery rhetoric, once warning of “fire and fury” if it attacked the U.S. or any of its territories.
It is scary because most have believed this technology, the anti-missile defense system, to do the protection. Now, we all know that the technology may not be reliable.
---Visit our Store for my books, cases, notes, etc. Now, enjoy our consolidated subscription for all contents (past, present and future).
-- We offer Advisory Services (tech, strategy & Africa).