The ongoing US-Israel war against Iran, which began in late February 2026 with massive airstrikes including the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders, has escalated dramatically in recent days, particularly around energy infrastructure.
The dynamics playing out, though the situation is fluid, multi-sided, and not exactly matching a full “Shia militia” conversion or total global energy shutdown—yet the risks are severe and mounting. Israeli strike on South Pars gas field. Israel targeted facilities in Iran’s massive South Pars natural gas field (shared with Qatar and the world’s largest).
This marked a major escalation by hitting critical energy assets directly, causing fires and disruptions. Trump publicly distanced the US, claiming on Truth Social that the US “knew nothing” about the specific attack and that Qatar was uninvolved.
However, some reports suggest coordination or awareness at higher levels, creating apparent friction. Iran responded by launching missiles and drones at energy sites in Gulf states, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facilities, Saudi refineries, Kuwaiti oil sites, and others.
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This has disrupted production; Qatar halted some LNG output, spiked global energy prices (Brent crude hitting $115–$118/barrel, up sharply), and raised fears of broader closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for ~20% of global oil trade. Iran has weaponized energy disruption as leverage, targeting not just Israel/US but regional neighbors to pressure for de-escalation or to impose economic pain worldwide.
Trump’s Statements and Positioning
Trump has openly warned Israel against further strikes on South Pars unless Iran hits Qatar again—in which case the US would “massively blow up the entirety” of the field. He’s called for de-escalation on energy site attacks while threatening overwhelming retaliation.
This comes amid reports of Trump struggling to find an “exit” from the conflict he initially framed as quick and victorious. Some sources describe mixed messaging, efforts to distance the US from certain Israeli actions, and strain in the US-Israel alliance over escalation risks. Trump has rejected some ceasefire mediation attempts, but the tone suggests growing concern about prolonged war and economic fallout.
The war has involved assassinations of Iranian officials; intelligence minister, Basij militia head, security council figures, heavy US/Israeli airstrikes degrading Iranian defenses, missiles and navy, and Iranian missile/drone barrages hitting Israel (causing casualties) and Gulf states. Iran shows defiance under its new leadership (Mojtaba Khamenei), betting on endurance and disruption to outlast opponents rather than direct military victory.
No full “Shia militia” pivot has occurred—Iran still operates through IRGC and proxies—but its strategy relies on asymmetric escalation, including via allies and militias in the region, to raise costs for everyone.
Israel/US aimed to cripple Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and leadership, but Iran has expanded the fight to energy and global pressure points, turning it into a grinding economic war. International calls including from Arab/Islamic states urge restraint, and pressure is building—though not necessarily “day and night” pleas to Israel alone, but broader diplomatic noise.
The energy threat is indeed not small: Disruptions could set global supplies back significantly if the Strait closes or more facilities burn, with a decade-long recovery possible in a worst-case prolonged scenario. However, as of now, it’s severe but not total shutdown—prices are soaring, production is hit, but markets are reacting rather than collapsing entirely.
This remains highly volatile; developments could shift quickly with any major Iranian response or US/Israeli decision. The original plans (rapid degradation of Iran) haven’t unfolded as a clean win, and the conflict’s expands to energy and global stakes.