The US Elections and Geopolitical Flashpoints of 2024

The year 2024 will be a pivotal one for the United States and the world, as the presidential election will determine the direction of the country’s foreign policy and its role in global affairs. The election will also coincide with several geopolitical flashpoints that could escalate into major conflicts or crises, affecting the stability and security of the international system.

China: The US-China rivalry is arguably the most consequential and complex relationship in the world today, as the two powers compete for influence, resources, and leadership in various domains, such as trade, technology, security, human rights, and regional order.

The next US president will have to balance the need to cooperate with China on common challenges, such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, and pandemic prevention, with the need to confront and deter China’s assertive and aggressive behavior in areas such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and cyberspace.

The next US president will also have to decide whether to continue or modify the current strategy of strategic competition and decoupling or pursue a more cooperative or confrontational approach.

Russia: The US-Russia relationship is at its lowest point since the Cold War, as the two countries disagree on a range of issues, such as Ukraine, Syria, Iran, North Korea, NATO expansion, arms control, election interference, human rights, and cyberattacks.

The next US president will have to deal with a resurgent and revisionist Russia that seeks to undermine the US-led international order and assert its interests and influence in its near abroad and beyond. The next US president will also have to decide whether to extend or renegotiate the New START treaty, which expires in 2026, or pursue a new framework for nuclear arms control that includes China.

Iran: The US-Iran relationship is fraught with tension and mistrust, as the two countries clash over Iran’s nuclear program, regional activities, ballistic missile development, and support for proxy groups. The next US president will have to decide whether to rejoin or renegotiate the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), which was abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018 and has been violated by Iran since 2019. The next US president will also have to manage the risk of escalation and conflict with Iran in the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

North Korea: The US-North Korea relationship is unpredictable and volatile, as the two countries oscillate between dialogue and confrontation over North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

The next US president will have to decide whether to continue or abandon the diplomatic process that was initiated by the Trump administration in 2018 but has stalled since 2019. The next US president will also have to prepare for the possibility of a provocation or crisis from North Korea, which may seek to test or advance its weapons of mass destruction.

Afghanistan: The US-Afghanistan relationship is uncertain and fragile, as the US plans to withdraw its remaining troops from Afghanistan by May 2021 as part of a peace deal with the Taliban.

However, NATO faces internal divisions and doubts about its unity and resolve, especially after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project between Germany and Russia. The next US president will have to decide how to reassure and strengthen NATO’s collective defense and deterrence against Russia, while engaging in dialogue on issues of common interest such as arms control and counterterrorism.

These are just some of the major challenges that the US will face in 2024 and beyond. The outcome of the elections will depend on many factors, such as the state of the economy, the public health situation, the domestic political climate, and the performance and popularity of the incumbent president.

The candidates’ positions and policies on foreign affairs will also matter, as they will reflect their vision and values for America’s role in the world. The voters’ choice will have significant consequences for global peace and prosperity.