
Where things stand: “A federal appeals court on Friday upheld a law requiring China-based ByteDance to divest ownership of TikTok, citing national security concerns. The ruling, handed down unanimously by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., mandates that TikTok be sold by January 19, 2025, or face an effective ban in the United States. This decision puts the app’s future in jeopardy and leaves its parent company with only two viable options: appealing to the U.S. Supreme Court or seeking intervention from President-elect Donald Trump.”
My April 2024 call remains: “It is now the law of the land: TikTok must either be in the hands of the natives or exit America… I posit that ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, will not sell, but after some legal challenges, will count its losses and exit the United States. Why? China will not allow it to ship the AI to the Americans – and without the AI, the ingredients of the soup which make TikTok amazing will not be complete. The worst-case scenario is to ship the users with the trademark while the AI code remains with the company in China. That will mark the valuation of TikTok down by more than 70%.”
Simply, TikTok should not expect an American court to rule against its Congress when the case is anchored on national security. So, I do not expect any help from the Supreme Court for TikTok if it wants to keep wasting time. This is not an executive order; this is an American law, and any justice that rules otherwise is lost in the legal ocean.
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Then, lessons for all: For companies like Temu, Shein and other Chinese online companies operating in the US, this is the moment of truth! Geopolitics is now the risk vector, well ahead of the typical competition. But we will see how China responds to the clipping of TikTok, and you should expect the typical: nothing will happen because TikTok is not in semiconductors and microelectronics which are core priorities for the communist party.
As spectators in this era, other nations do hope that China and US will both continue to rise in peace.
Comment on Feed
Comment: Bitcoin is decentralized
My Response: How is crypto decentralized? The top 10 BTC miners control more than 90% of the market. The top 10 exchanges control more than 90% of the volume. All those companies need bank accounts and they are under the control of governments. Your decentralization is an illusion as the US can shut down Coinbase tomorrow if it wants and can sanction Binance tomorrow if it desires. You can tell me that crypto is technologically decentralized but that does not mean it is economically not centralized. BTC is fully under the control of governments now. All the shadow exchanges have gone.
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