After weeks of distancing the U.S. from the Ukraine conflict, President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to impose expanded “large-scale” sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a peace agreement is reached with Ukraine.
“Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The shift in Trump’s rhetoric comes after an intense Oval Office confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week. The meeting, which ended with the collapse of a potential rare earth minerals deal, stoked concerns that U.S. policy toward Russia was softening. European allies have since scrambled to assess how a potential withdrawal of U.S. support might reshape the geopolitical landscape.
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From Criticism to Threats of Sanctions
In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly criticized Zelenskyy, and his administration announced a pause on military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. However, Friday’s announcement marked a departure from his earlier stance, with threats of sanctions that could significantly pressure the Russian economy.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday, hinted at a robust sanctions strategy. “Per President Trump’s guidance, sanctions will be used explicitly and aggressively for immediate maximum impact,” Bessent said. He added that the administration is prepared to go “all in” to use sanctions as leverage in peace negotiations.
Bessent accused the previous Biden administration of imposing “weak sanctions” on Russia’s energy sector, arguing that Biden’s approach allowed Russia to continue financing its war efforts. He claimed that Biden was hesitant to enforce stronger measures due to concerns over rising U.S. energy prices during an election year.
He also suggested that the Biden administration had lifted sanctions on Russia in January, though no clear evidence supports this assertion. Instead, in the final days of Biden’s presidency, sweeping sanctions were implemented against Russia’s energy sector, and there has been no indication of any easing of those restrictions.
Doubt Over Sanctions’ Impact
While Trump’s threat of expanded sanctions aims to pressure Russia into peace negotiations, there is growing skepticism about their effectiveness. Analysts warn that Russia has already defied some of the harshest U.S. sanctions in history and remains largely undeterred. Despite numerous rounds of financial, trade, and energy sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies, Russia has managed to stabilize its economy and continue its military operations in Ukraine.
Through a combination of rerouted trade partnerships, particularly with China, India, and other non-Western nations, and strategic measures to maintain its energy revenues, Russia has softened the blow of Western economic penalties. The Russian ruble, which initially plummeted following the invasion, rebounded significantly, and despite reduced oil exports to Europe, Moscow found alternative markets for its energy products.
Zelenskyy Calls for a Truce Amid Escalating Attacks
Following Trump’s post, Zelenskyy took to Telegram, calling for a truce in the air and at sea after Russia launched a massive overnight attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
“In total, the Russians launched nearly 70 missiles, both cruise and ballistic, as well as almost 200 attack drones,” Zelenskyy said. “All of this was directed at infrastructure that ensures normal life. Repair and restoration work is already underway wherever needed. Unfortunately, there is also damage to residential buildings.”
Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine’s commitment to peace, stating, “Ukraine is ready to take the path to peace, and Ukraine has wanted peace from the very first second of this war. The goal is to force Russia to stop the war.”
He noted that Ukraine defended its airspace using F-16 and Mirage-2000 jets provided by France. French President Emmanuel Macron, earlier in the week, assured Ukraine that Europe would maintain its support against Russian aggression, regardless of U.S. policy shifts.
Uncertainty in U.S. Foreign Policy
The evolving U.S. stance on the Ukraine conflict has left both allies and adversaries uncertain. While Trump’s recent statements suggest a tougher approach toward Russia, the administration’s previous actions raised doubts about Washington’s commitment to Ukraine.
In Europe, concerns are mounting that the U.S. is stepping back from its role as a key supporter of Ukraine. Macron’s assurances to Zelenskyy underscore a growing realization in Europe that it may have to shoulder more of the burden if Trump continues to distance the U.S. from the conflict.
Analysts warn that any ambiguity in U.S. policy could embolden Russia and destabilize the fragile support system keeping Ukraine resilient. Without a clear and consistent American stance, the conflict could drag on, with Russia feeling less pressure to negotiate a settlement.
While sanctions could theoretically weaken Russia’s economy, the reality is that Moscow has built significant economic resilience. The Kremlin’s “Fortress Russia” strategy, which involves stockpiling reserves and creating alternative trade routes, has blunted the impact of Western sanctions.
The next steps remain unclear, with Trump’s threat potentially signaling a recalibration of his administration’s approach. Whether this leads to concrete action or is part of a broader negotiation tactic will likely determine the trajectory of the conflict and its broader geopolitical implications.