Wall Street’s growing interest in SpaceX is no longer limited to rockets, satellites and Starlink. The company has increasingly become the center of a broader investment story involving artificial intelligence.
Space infrastructure and Elon Musk’s expanding corporate empire. UBS has placed a $210 price target on SpaceX, while a reported 65% probability of a future merger between SpaceX and Tesla is adding another layer of speculation to the company’s valuation.
UBS initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $210 target in July. At the time, the shares were trading around $160, giving the target substantial implied upside.
The bank argued that SpaceX possesses an unusually broad collection of assets, with Starship potentially unlocking opportunities across launch services, communications and AI computing. UBS estimated that the addressable market connected to these businesses could approach $30 trillion.
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The argument is important because it moves SpaceX beyond the conventional aerospace valuation framework. Starlink already provides a large communications business.
While Starship represents a potential technological platform capable of dramatically reducing the cost of transporting payloads into orbit. If SpaceX can successfully commercialize increasingly powerful reusable launch systems.
The company could capture opportunities in satellite deployment, telecommunications, defense and eventually large-scale orbital infrastructure. Artificial intelligence adds another dimension.
Investors increasingly view SpaceX as a potential infrastructure company rather than simply a rocket manufacturer. Data centers, satellite connectivity and computing infrastructure could create additional sources of revenue as demand for AI continues to expand.
Morgan Stanley has separately placed a $300 price target on SpaceX and argued that investors may be undervaluing its AI ambitions. Against this backdrop, speculation about a Tesla-SpaceX merger has become particularly significant.
Such a combination would unite Tesla’s electric-vehicle, energy and autonomous-driving ambitions with SpaceX’s launch, satellite and AI infrastructure businesses.
The strategic logic is obvious: both companies are increasingly connected to Musk’s broader vision of robotics, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems and advanced infrastructure.
However, a merger would be far more complicated than simply combining two companies controlled by the same founder. Musk has significant voting control over SpaceX, while his voting position at Tesla is considerably smaller.
Any transaction would therefore face shareholder scrutiny, valuation questions and potentially substantial regulatory complications. The Wall Street Journal has also highlighted how a Tesla acquisition of SpaceX could interact with Musk’s enormous Tesla compensation package.
Creating additional incentives but also additional governance concerns. For SpaceX shareholders, the $210 UBS target therefore represents a valuation based primarily on operational potential.
While the reported 65% merger probability represents an additional corporate-action scenario. Those should not be treated as the same investment thesis. SpaceX’s recent share performance also demonstrates the risks.
The stock has experienced significant volatility since its public debut, falling sharply from its post-IPO peak before recovering at various points. The SpaceX story rests on execution. Starship must mature, Starlink must continue scaling.
AI infrastructure must generate meaningful returns, and management must navigate increasingly complex corporate relationships. A Tesla merger could dramatically reshape the investment landscape, but until formally announced, it remains speculative.
UBS’s $210 target, offers a clearer signal: Wall Street sees SpaceX as much more than a rocket company. The challenge for investors is determining how much of that extraordinary future is already embedded in the stock.