A young professional asked me, “Sir, what is your outlook on the US economy, considering the changes we’re seeing, including the recent reforms on H-1B visas?” My response is anchored on a simple observation: policies are shifting because the architecture of the American economy is shifting.
If you plot the average monthly jobs created in America since 2021, you will see a downward arc—from the exuberant highs of 600,000 jobs per month to fewer than 100,000. Yet, unemployment rates remain low, not because the economy is booming, but partly because immigration has slowed. Fewer entrants into the labor force have masked a profound redesign underway in the US economy. I shared this with Tekedia Capital members in our WhatsApp Group.
President Trump understands this reality. Tariffs were one lever to stimulate domestic production. But tariffs cannot close a chasm where a worker in Cambodia earns $10 a day—making relocation to Los Angeles less compelling even with a 100% tariff. The US Federal Reserve, holding its dual mandate to optimize employment and stabilize the dollar, watches this paradox unfold: low unemployment but slowing job creation.
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Meanwhile, Wall Street is jubilant. Stocks climb, corporate profits soar, and capital markets hum. But for the fresh graduate seeking that first job, the melody sounds different. Somewhere between AI’s productivity surge, corporate efficiency, and changing demographics lies an unsolved equation.
The American economy remains resilient and promising for investors, but for workers, the path ahead demands vigilance and adaptability. In Igbo wisdom: “onye na-amagh? ebe mmiri bidoro mawa ya, agagh? ama ebe o kw?s?r?” [he who does not know where the rain began to beat him cannot know where things started to dry]. The rain is falling in America’s labor market, even as the sun shines on Wall Street. This plot below is what Trump wants to solve because this cannot be the new normal in the world’s finest economy.
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