Bitcoin is ending the year on a fragile footing, with market watchers divided over its near-term direction. The crypto asset price enters 2026 stuck in the same buyer-seller fight that kept it muted through late 2025.
BTC price has remained largely flat over the past 30 days, slipping by roughly 0.6%, a sign that neither buyers nor sellers have gained clear control of the market. On a year-on-year basis, it remains down by about 7%, underscoring the broader weakness. The crypto asset currently trades at $88,298 at the time of writing this report.
Amidst BTC price fluctuations between the $80,000- $90,000 price zone, veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin has sparked fresh debate in the digital asset community with a bold forecast on Bitcoin’s next major market move.
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According to Terpin, an early Bitcoin adopter, he noted that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could face further downside before finding a bottom around the $60,000 mark in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2026, a timeline that challenges near-term bullish expectations and underscores the cyclical nature of the crypto market.
In his view, the real upside comes later, with possible targets between 250,000 and 350,000 in the 2028 to 2029 window. According to Bitwise analysts Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen, Bitcoin may be on the cusp of breaking free from its long-standing four-year rhythm altogether.
In 2026, “Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs,” they argued, pointing to structural shifts that are reshaping the market. In their view, traditional cycle drivers, such as halving-induced supply shocks, interest-rate volatility, and highly leveraged speculative excess, carry less influence than they once did.
Others are cautiously optimistic. Hedy Wang says extreme fear often creates opportunity and believes disciplined buyers may be rewarded in 2026. Chris Kline argues the long-term case remains intact, especially as ETFs deepen institutional adoption.
Although Bitcoin (BTC) peaked almost exactly in line with its historical four-year cycle, the widely anticipated blow-off top failed to materialize. More importantly, Bitcoin’s gains did not spill over into the broader crypto market, leaving expectations of a full-scale altcoin season largely unmet.
As a result, 2026 has begun under a cloud of uncertainty. Investor sentiment is deeply negative, characterized by heightened caution and skepticism, even as the industry occupies an unprecedented position. For the first time in crypto’s 15-year history, institutions, corporations, and regulators appear to be moving largely in the same direction, creating conditions that favor broader adoption rather than active resistance.
There is also increasing evidence that Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving. Institutional capital, defined by longer investment horizons and stricter risk mandates, is playing a growing role in shaping price action and liquidity. In the process, these participants may be redefining crypto market behavior, gradually shifting influence away from traditional drivers such as miners, long-term holders, and large Bitcoin holders.
Bitcoin is now well into its fourth halving epoch, a phase that has historically aligned with the most aggressive stage of bull markets. In previous cycles, the cryptocurrency typically reached its peak around 12 to 18 months after a halving event, a pattern that has long informed investor expectations.
Outlook
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s outlook for 2026 remains finely balanced between structural strength and cyclical uncertainty. In the near term, price action is likely to stay volatile and range-bound, as macroeconomic signals, regulatory developments, and shifting liquidity conditions continue to test investor conviction.
If bearish scenarios play out, a deeper correction toward historically significant support levels such as the $60,000 zone highlighted by Michael Terpin cannot be ruled out, particularly if risk appetite across global markets weakens.
Ultimately, Bitcoin’s trajectory may hinge on whether institutional capital continues to expand its footprint and whether macro conditions stabilize.