Wealthy Investors See Higher Rates As Biggest Threat to Global Growth, Deutsche Bank Poll Finds

Rising interest rates and government bond yields have emerged as the biggest threat to global economic growth in the eyes of wealthy investors, while Asia is widely viewed as the world’s most stable geopolitical region over the next year, according to a Deutsche Bank survey released on Wednesday.

The findings offer a snapshot of how family offices and wealthy individuals are positioning for an uncertain global environment, with financial conditions, inflation and artificial intelligence risks competing for attention.

The survey was conducted during Deutsche Bank’s Emerging Markets Family Office Forum 2026 in Singapore, which brought together about 200 family offices and wealthy individuals.

Among respondents, 37% identified interest rates and bond yields as the greatest risk to global economic growth. Inflation ranked second at 23%, while AI-related risks were cited by 17%.

The results underpin the importance wealthy investors continue to place on the cost of capital. Higher rates can raise borrowing costs, pressure asset valuations and make government bonds more attractive relative to riskier investments. Higher long-term yields can also tighten financial conditions even when central banks are no longer actively raising short-term rates.

The survey’s ranking of rates and yields above inflation also suggests that investors are concerned about the broader financial consequences of persistent price pressures. If inflation remains elevated, central banks may have less room to cut rates, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.

AI, meanwhile, ranked third at 17%, indicating that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is being viewed not only as an investment opportunity but also as a potential economic risk. Concerns range from the capital required to finance AI infrastructure to the possibility of disruption across labor markets and industries.

Asia Emerges As Preferred Geopolitical Haven

The survey produced an even stronger consensus on the geopolitical outlook. Asia was identified by 73% of respondents as the most stable geopolitical region over the next 12 months. The United States followed at 14%, while the UK and Europe received 6%. Latin America was selected by 4% and the Middle East by just 2%.

The result is notable because the region contains several of the world’s largest economies and remains central to global trade, manufacturing and technology supply chains. For family offices managing capital across multiple jurisdictions, perceived geopolitical stability can be an important consideration when determining where to hold assets, establish businesses and preserve wealth.

Singapore’s position as the venue for the survey is also significant. The city-state has established itself as a major private-banking and family-office hub, offering wealthy international investors access to Asian markets while providing a relatively stable institutional and financial environment.

“International families and their family offices are seeking stability, risk mitigation strategies and global connectivity, and Singapore has emerged as one of the clear favorites as a global wealth center in this changing world,” said Marco Pagliara, head of emerging markets at Deutsche Bank Private Bank.

The survey suggests that wealthy investors are increasingly approaching the global economy through a risk-management lens rather than focusing exclusively on returns. Higher rates, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty all affect the preservation and deployment of capital, particularly for family offices with multigenerational investment horizons.

Rates Remain Central to Asset Allocation

The prominence of rates and yields in the survey is particularly relevant because fixed-income markets influence the valuation of almost every major asset class. When government bond yields rise, investors can demand higher returns from equities, private markets, and real estate. That can pressure valuations, particularly for assets whose expected cash flows are far into the future.

For family offices, higher yields can also create an alternative to riskier investments. Government bonds and other high-quality fixed-income instruments can offer more attractive income than they did during the era of exceptionally low interest rates. At the same time, higher rates can create challenges for businesses that rely heavily on debt financing, particularly in sectors requiring substantial upfront investment. Real estate, infrastructure and highly leveraged private companies can become more sensitive to refinancing costs.

Inflation remains closely connected to that risk. At 23%, it was the second-largest concern among respondents, suggesting that wealthy investors remain alert to the possibility that price pressures could prevent central banks from easing monetary policy as quickly as markets might otherwise expect.

The AI result adds another dimension. Seventeen percent of respondents identified AI risks as the largest threat to global growth, placing it ahead of several traditional geopolitical concerns. That may reflect the scale of capital being directed toward AI infrastructure and the uncertainty surrounding its economic effects.

The survey does not establish whether respondents view AI primarily as a threat to productivity, employment, financial stability, or investment returns. But its position among the three leading risks shows that the technology has become part of the macroeconomic risk discussion for wealthy investors.

Deutsche Bank provides wealth-management services through 14 booking centers globally. Assets under management at its private bank reached €732 billion ($819.77 billion) as of June 30.

For global family offices, the combination of higher financing costs, persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty creates a more demanding investment environment. The strong preference for Asia’s geopolitical stability, meanwhile, points to the region’s growing importance in the wealth-management strategies of internationally mobile investors.

The survey’s message is that wealthy investors are entering the next year focused less on a single economic shock than on the interaction between borrowing costs, inflation, technology and geopolitical risk.