Why Did Trump Lose? And Why Did Biden Win? I have maintained thus: Trump lost because above all things, there was a credible Libertarian candidate in the race. Libertarians are more conservative than Conservatives (i.e. Republicans) which means that the probability of any person who voted for a Libertarian voting for Biden, over Trump, is close to 0. In other words, any vote to a Libertarian is a vote Trump lost.
Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate in the race, might have cost Trump the election. Here is my thesis:
- Arizona: Biden is winning Trump by 0.44% (about 15,000 votes); Jo received 1.5% (about 50,000 votes) of the votes.
- Pennsylvania: Biden is ahead by 0.67% (about 45,000 votes). Jo got about 78,000 votes or 1.2%.
- Wisconsin: Biden is ahead by 0.62% (about 20,000 votes). Jo received about 39,000 votes of 1.2%.
- Georgia: Biden up by 0.25% (12,000 votes) with Jo getting 62,000 votes for 1.24% of the votes.
Without Jo, Trump might have picked enough votes to sway Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin and won the U.S. Presidency. Indeed, from all indications, that would have been the outcomes.
I expect Trump to contest again in 2024.