The 2026 FIFA World Cup has become the biggest catalyst yet for the rapidly expanding prediction market industry, driving record trading activity across leading event-contract platforms as millions of users wager on match outcomes, tournament winners and related events.
The month-long football spectacle, widely forecast to become the largest betting event in history, pushed trading volumes on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood-backed Rothera to unprecedented levels, highlighting the growing mainstream adoption of regulated prediction markets beyond politics and macroeconomic events.
Data compiled by Dune Analytics, which was first published by CNBC, showed that Kalshi recorded more than $31 billion in notional trading volume in June, representing a surge of more than 70% from $17.9 billion recorded in May. The platform has consistently generated more than $1 billion in daily trading volume since the World Cup kicked off on June 11, underscoring the tournament’s role in transforming sports-related event contracts into one of the fastest-growing segments of the alternative trading market.
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International rival Polymarket also enjoyed its strongest month on record. Its global platform processed more than $10.8 billion in notional trading volume during June, reversing the slowdown experienced in April and May. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s U.S. platform recorded more than $3.5 billion in trading volume, almost doubling May’s $1.77 billion.
The surge demonstrates how prediction markets are rapidly evolving into mainstream financial products, with sports increasingly joining elections, inflation, interest rates and geopolitical developments as major drivers of trading activity.
The World Cup has become an ideal testing ground because it combines massive global audiences, clearly defined outcomes and continuous events over several weeks, generating sustained user engagement rather than short-lived spikes associated with one-off political or economic announcements.
The excitement surrounding the tournament has also provided an early boost for Rothera, the prediction market joint venture established by Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood. The platform, which officially launched in June, processed approximately $2 billion in notional trading volume during its debut month after Robinhood began routing selected World Cup event contracts through the exchange.
According to Bank of America, Rothera has already captured around 7% of the U.S. prediction market, an impressive start for a newcomer competing against more established players.
The knockout stages continue to attract enormous trading activity. Ahead of the United States’ Round of 16 clash against Belgium on Monday night, traders had already exchanged more than $64 million worth of contracts on Kalshi and approximately $122 million on Polymarket relating to whether Team USA would ultimately win the World Cup.
Despite the heavy trading, market pricing suggested optimism remained limited. Kalshi assigned the United States just a 4.3% probability of lifting the trophy, while Polymarket’s implied odds were even lower at 3%, illustrating how prediction markets continuously incorporate collective expectations into contract pricing.
To capitalize on the football frenzy, platforms have aggressively competed for users through marketing campaigns and promotional incentives.
Polymarket launched a global competition offering up to $2 million to participants capable of predicting a perfect World Cup knockout bracket, while Kalshi prominently featured “Trade the World Cup” across its mobile application to attract sports-focused traders.
Beyond headline trading volumes, the tournament has also boosted open interest across the industry. Open interest, which measures the total value of outstanding contracts yet to be settled, climbed above $1 billion on Kalshi, indicating that users are maintaining larger positions throughout the competition rather than simply placing short-term bets.
Polymarket’s international platform recorded open interest approaching $400 million, remaining near historically elevated levels despite recent fluctuations in trading activity.
Industry observers believe the World Cup represents far more than a successful sporting event for prediction markets. It is widely viewed as the industry’s most significant operational stress test to date, demonstrating whether exchanges can efficiently process billions of dollars in transactions while maintaining orderly markets, accurate pricing and effective safeguards against manipulation.
That performance is attracting close scrutiny from regulators, institutional investors, and financial firms evaluating whether prediction markets can mature into a permanent component of global financial infrastructure.
Asaf Meir, Chief Executive Officer of market integrity firm Solidus Labs, which partners with Kalshi, said the tournament represents a defining moment for the industry. According to Meir, regulators and institutions are increasingly asking whether prediction markets have become sufficiently mature, liquid, and secure to support sustained high-volume trading without compromising market integrity.
“The World Cup is such a huge pressure test to see whether indeed prediction markets are able to deliver their word on maintaining a level playing field for all investors for a long period of time in a sustained high-volume environment,” he said.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets are taking a position as financial exchanges where participants trade contracts based on the probability of future events rather than placing conventional bets. That distinction has attracted growing interest from hedge funds, quantitative traders and retail investors seeking alternative ways to express market views.
Sports have dominated activity during the World Cup, but market participants expect attention to shift back toward contracts linked to inflation, monetary policy, corporate earnings, elections, and geopolitical developments once the tournament concludes.