India’s economic growth faces mounting downside risks from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of a weaker-than-normal monsoon, factors that could push up inflation and weigh on domestic demand in one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, according to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official.
The warnings come after the IMF this month trimmed its growth forecast for India for the 2026/27 fiscal year by 10 basis points to 6.4%, while raising its projection for 2027/28 by 20 basis points to 6.7%, reflecting expectations that longer-term growth fundamentals remain intact even as near-term risks increase.
Ranil Salgado, the IMF’s Senior Resident Representative for India and Bhutan, said the country’s outlook remains vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on imported crude oil and uncertainty surrounding this year’s monsoon season.
“The downside risks are probably twofold,” Salgado told Reuters in an interview on Monday.
“One is that the war is already starting to expand again, and that has implications for oil prices.”
Oil Shock Threatens Inflation and External Balances
India imports nearly 80% of its crude oil requirements, making it particularly exposed to spikes in global energy prices.
The renewed conflict in the Middle East has heightened concerns over oil supplies, particularly after fighting involving the United States, Israel and Iran raised fears of disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global crude exports. Brent crude briefly traded above $90 per barrel last week as markets priced in supply risks before easing following reports of U.S.-Iran mediation efforts. However, geopolitical tensions remain elevated following fresh attacks and renewed threats by Yemen’s Houthi movement to blockade Saudi Arabia.
For India, higher oil prices could have wide-ranging economic consequences. A sustained rise in crude prices would increase the country’s import bill, widen the current account deficit, place downward pressure on the rupee and raise fuel and transportation costs across the economy. Those pressures would likely feed into broader inflation, potentially limiting the Reserve Bank of India’s room to ease monetary policy.
There is also concern that higher energy costs could squeeze corporate profit margins and reduce household purchasing power, slowing consumption, which remains the primary driver of India’s economic growth.
Weak Monsoon Poses Agricultural Risk
Alongside geopolitical uncertainty, the IMF identified weather-related risks as another significant challenge. Salgado said this year’s IMF forecasts did not fully incorporate the potential economic impact of a weaker monsoon associated with the El Niño weather pattern.
“This is an El Niño year that could lead to a poor monsoon,” he said.
“We had a delayed monsoon, some recovery in July, but we will have to see how that plays out.”
Agriculture remains a crucial component of India’s economy, employing a large share of the workforce while heavily influencing food prices and rural incomes.
An inadequate monsoon can reduce crop yields, increase food inflation and weaken rural consumption, affecting sectors ranging from consumer goods to automobiles and financial services.
Although rainfall improved during July after a delayed start to the season, uncertainty remains over whether precipitation will be sufficient to support agricultural production through the remainder of the growing season.
IMF to Reassess India’s GDP Statistics
Beyond the macroeconomic outlook, the IMF also plans to reassess the quality of India’s national accounts after the government completes a major revision of its GDP methodology.
Salgado said the review would take place during the IMF’s next Article IV consultation later this year, with the findings expected to be published next year after India’s statistics office releases revised historical GDP data based on the new 2022/23 base year.
“It will be reassessed at the next Article IV consultation, expected later this year, with the report out next year,” he said.
He noted that several important reforms have already been completed, while additional work remains before the assessment is finalized.
Among the remaining improvements are incorporating newly rebased wholesale price index (WPI) and index of industrial production (IIP) data into the national accounts framework and aligning historical GDP estimates with the revised base year.
The review follows criticism from the IMF last November, when India’s national accounts received the Fund’s second-lowest “C” rating because of methodological shortcomings.
The IMF identified several weaknesses, including the use of an outdated GDP base year, extensive reliance on wholesale price indices to adjust for inflation, and the widespread use of single deflation techniques, which are considered less accurate than double deflation in measuring real manufacturing output.
Since then, Indian authorities have undertaken significant statistical reforms.
These include updating the GDP base year to 2022/23, expanding the use of item-level price deflators, introducing double deflation for manufacturing output and strengthening the use of administrative and digital datasets to improve economic measurement.
A more favorable assessment from the IMF would strengthen confidence in India’s economic statistics, which are closely monitored by global investors, multilateral institutions and credit rating agencies when evaluating the country’s long-term growth prospects.
Despite the near-term risks, India’s projected growth of 6.4% for 2026/27 remains among the highest for major economies, supported by resilient domestic demand, government infrastructure spending, manufacturing expansion and continued investment in digital infrastructure.
However, economists note that the combination of elevated oil prices, weather-related disruptions and persistent global uncertainty could test the resilience of that growth trajectory over the coming quarters.






