Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) digital economy is undergoing a period of rapid and profound transformation, building on a long history of mobile technology leapfrogging that has reshaped economic and social systems over the past two decades.
As internet access expands and a new generation of digitally native citizens comes of age, fresh patterns of commerce, communication, and consumption continue to emerge across the region.
To better understand these developments, dLocal, in partnership with Access, published an academic paper titled “Decoding Cross-Border Payment Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Transaction-Level Analysis.” The study draws on proprietary transaction data from dLocal, one of the region’s leading payments platforms to examine how cross-border payment trends are evolving across key African markets.
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Diverse and Uneven Digital Payment Landscapes Across SSA
The report highlights the deeply heterogeneous nature of digital economies across Sub-Saharan Africa. Payment methods, consumer behaviour, and market maturity vary widely between countries.
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Kenya is characterized by high-volume, low-value mobile money transactions.
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South Africa operates a mature, card-driven system.
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Nigeria features a dynamic blend of instant bank transfers and rapidly expanding digital wallet adoption.
These structural differences influence consumer spending patterns. On the dLocal platform, South Africa’s transactions are dominated by e-commerce, Nigeria’s activity is concentrated in entertainment and streaming services, while Kenya’s flows reflect foundational spending on telecoms and communication services.
A Concentrated but Fast-Growing Cross-Border Payment Market
An analysis of transaction metrics presented in the study reveals a payment landscape marked by fast paced yet highly concentrated growth. According to the report, South Africa already the most established market in the sample recorded an impressive 125% year-on-year growth, signaling substantial room for further digital payment expansion.
Smaller and emerging markets exhibit even more dramatic growth trajectories. Ghana, for example, posted a staggering 891% YoY growth rate. Although countries like Zambia and Cameroon report similarly high growth from low initial bases, the overall trend indicates robust expansion across the region.
The “Recent Growth Momentum” metric, which compares the last six months to the long-term average, shows that growth is accelerating in several key markets, particularly South Africa (+56%) and Nigeria (+32%).
Despite this rapid expansion, transaction values remain heavily concentrated in a few economic hubs. As illustrated in the report’s choropleth map, South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya collectively account for more than 97% of all transaction value processed in the dataset. These three economies form the focal point of the study for three main reasons:
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Materiality:
South Africa alone represents 78.16% of transaction value, followed by Nigeria (17.14%) and Kenya (1.73%). -
Market Diversity:
Nigeria leads with 58 unique merchants, followed by South Africa (44) and Kenya (20), allowing for richer cross-sectoral analysis. -
Comparative Regional Perspectives:
These markets represent distinct regional payment archetypes, enabling a nuanced comparative study rather than a one-size-fits-all continental view.
Distinct Payment Patterns and Their Evolution Over Time
The high-frequency nature of the dLocal dataset provides rare insight into the evolution of payment method preferences across SSA’s three largest digital economies.
South Africa: A Card-Dominated, Bank-Led Ecosystem
The static snapshot for April 2025 shows that card payments—credit and debit—dominate South Africa’s transaction value. The time-series data illustrates the long-term stability of credit card usage, which consistently remains above 20%. This stability reflects entrenched consumer behavior and a well-developed banking infrastructure.
Kenya: The Global Archetype of a Mobile-First Economy
Kenya remains a global leader in mobile money usage. Digital wallets (mobile money) account for around 60% of transaction value on the platform. However, the report notes a sharp mid-2024 decline in mobile money’s share—from nearly 60% to below 40%—corresponding with public debate over potential increases to mobile money taxation. This demonstrates how sensitive highly digital ecosystems can be to regulatory uncertainty.
Nigeria: A Hybrid System in Rapid Transition
Nigeria features the most volatile and fast-evolving payment ecosystem among the three. Bank transfers peak above 20%, driven by widespread usage of the NIBSS Instant Payments (NIP) system. Meanwhile, digital wallets show a classic S-curve adoption pattern, rising steadily to nearly 20% by the end of the period.
External benchmarks reinforce these trends: according to the Worldpay Global Payments Report 2025, digital wallets accounted for 19% of Nigerian e-commerce transaction value in 2024. This reflects Nigeria’s growing reputation as a fintech powerhouse and a hub for innovation-driven financial inclusion.
Debit Cards: A Cross-Market Constant
Across all three countries, debit cards show relatively stable trends. While their market share differs by country, their consistency suggests that they provide a foundational baseline for digital consumption, even as more dynamic methods (like mobile money or real-time transfers) capture growing market segments.
Conclusion
The report uncovers clear payment archetypes in Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa, and reveals how these ecosystems are evolving in response to technology, regulation, innovation, and consumer behavior.
Overall, the findings paint a picture of a digital economy that is heterogeneous, fast-moving, and globally significant. From Kenya’s mature mobile money system to Nigeria’s hybrid fintech-driven landscape and South Africa’s stable card-based market, Sub-Saharan Africa’s digital transformation is unfolding along multiple distinct pathways, each contributing to the growth of one of the world’s most dynamic payments regions.