By this time in 2022, APC will select Bola Tinubu as the presidential flagbearer of the party for Election 2023. Mr. Tinubu will select a retiring governor from the southeast as his running mate. The main goal is to quench any agitation that 2023 will be the turn for southeast.
The present governor of Ebonyi state will likely be his running mate. Engr David Umahi will win with PDP in 2019 but will decamp to APC shortly. His “friendship” comment on President Buhari was not a lapse.
Largely, the best time to decamp as a governor is during the second term as you may not have to face any regional election. Decamping will be very popular because in my model, I expect Buhari to win in 2019 if he continues to show physical energy as he has recently demonstrated.
Then, once he wins, the recent effervescence in PDP with all the migration from APC to PDP will fade. These men did not migrate because of any core principle; they moved because they want to perpetuate their permanent interests: stay in power.
A PDP defeat in 2019 will cause massive dislocation in southeast with many term-limited governors. Some of those governors would not have much in play as federal power could sway some to decamp to APC.
2023 will be a consequential election in Nigerian history; 2019 is already history. With 5 months to go, PDP has not articulated any message. By this time last four years, we knew APC was coming for CHANGE. PDP needs to find a message fast to even have a decent outing.
But in 2023 – Tinubu/Umahi will be formidable.
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