Many have written that Obi and Kwankwaso do not have nationwide political structures like Tinubu and Atiku to win the Nigerian presidency next year. This is my response:
My Response: Mobile internet is reducing information asymmetry as more voters can bypass the filters and intermediaries to get information from the sources. The existence of information asymmetry makes market systems imperfect. In politics, it does the same thing – imperfect electoral systems.
But in 2023, Nigeria will have the first mobile internet era election. This is the first app utility-anchored national election. I am not arguing that decades-old political structures are not important, my point is that disintermediation (cutting out intermediaries) is evident, and general voters have access to more information about candidates now, to make decisions independently, out of the influence of political bundlers and brokers.
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The Ezes, Obas, Amanyanabos and Emirs influenced many past elections through zone defense and zone offense (as in football) via block voting, being custodians of information; the village head determined the candidates for most villagers.
In 2023, that will not happen because they do not have exclusivity on the information about candidates. This makes the paths wide open for candidates because the Best Message will WIN depending on how INEC behaves. The power of aggregation construct is now strong.
Indeed, the greatest danger is using old tools to model new systems. Think of when many Wall Street experts predicted that Tesla would go bankrupt, using models developed for Ford, Toyota and GM, for a car company that has unleashed new vistas of innovation.
If you use old political tools to evaluate new political systems, you will lose. President Trump did rallies during the pandemic and modeled his acceptability based on the crowd-size when Biden did none. After the elections and results counted, he realized that new technologies and evolving engaging patterns have changed many things and early voting made many of those rallies useless; some precincts had voted in excess of 50% before his rallies!
Young People, if anyone tells you that your candidate has no chance; ignore him or her. Indeed, if tech changes markets, it can change politics in Nigeria. The most valued financial institution in Nigeria is Flutterwave. Its market cap can buy GTBank* and Zenith Bank combined. It took Kuda bank 3 years to hit a milestone which took Wema bank more than 70 years. It is 0-0 at full time and they are getting into sudden-death extra time, with every candidate positioned to score that first goal to win it.
Continue to work for your candidate, and forget anyone who thinks because he is a “structural engineer” from the school of Nigerian politics, that only his party has an edge. If INEC does it work, this election is the most OPEN.
Comment on Feed
Comment 1: What is the ratio of people on internet to people without internet?,what is the ratio of youth that partake in election, compared to the old people that vote massively,Prof if you don’t have political structure in Nigeria forget about winning an Election.
My Response: Your model is that when those young people have no jobs, schools are closed, trapped in cities because insecurity will not even allow them to visit homes, they cannot tell those parents how their liberations will come. You think those young people cannot explain to their parents while the price of rice is high. Who would you trust? A local politician who comes every 4 years or your son/daughter with better information?
Edo State government election showed the evolution of awareness in Nigerian politics: the governor built structures in APC but was cut-out, he moved to PDP and was able to win despite the low capacity of PDP which over years he had actually worked to dismantle. APC, from state to national, could not overcome the people’s structures. Osun is also an example.
I am not saying that Obi or Kwankwaso has it; my point is that new structural engineers in Nigerian politics will graduate in 2023.
Comment 2: Your comment has banked heavily on past political structures but fails to recognize Three powerful game changers
- More than half of registered voters have never participated in any election in Nigeria due to perceived lack of enthusiasm in candidates. This has changed as daily realities show that majority of Nigerians are enthusiastic about voting in 2023. Who do you think they will Vote for? The people that’s never elicited their enthusiasm or the new players they find more credible?
- Information decimation in Nigeria politics depended heavily on political parties and their structures. That’s changed. Internet has changed it. Electorates now relate directly with candidates and the youths who are online freely speak to their aged parents and relations about who to vote for.
- New Voters have massively keyed into the System. I’ve Never voted before in any election in Nigeria. But this time around, I registered and I have collected my PVC because I see better choice of candidates in 2023 that made me take the sacrifice to register and collect my PVC and I’m going to Vote. And millions of Nigerians like me did same. Do you think we’re going to vote for PDP or APC that’s Never elicited in us the motivation to participate in ELECTIONS?
Do you know How many people I have mobilized to register and collect their PVCs?
Do you know How Many aged people I talk to everyday about credible Candidates to Vote for in 2023
Do You know that there are millions of first time PVC owners doing same as I’m doing and we’re doing it heartily and not because of payment from any Party
You didn’t take these three powerful game changers into account in your hypothesis
This election is Very open
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You are even making the voting process a lot more academic and sophisticated, native intelligence dictates that Obi is known, more than LP anyway. The APC is worried about Obi, the PDP is worried about Obi, where on earth are politicians worried about who has no chance of winning? These things are self-evident, but in politics, self-delusion is also a valid science.
The original battle ground used to be NC states, but for this particular election, the battle ground has shifted, it could be SW if you are modelling LP vs APC; it could be NW and NE if you are modelling APC vs PDP. In the event that both Tinubu and Atiku are competitive in NE and NW, what happens? It means that the other four zones will decide the outcome, who among the LP, APC and PDP has more leverage in the other four zones? That is where the finer details come in.
No party has it locked in yet, for obvious reasons, but you have to first gain the psychological advantage, and one of the best tools to deploy is to tell your opponents that you are already coasting home, and that they do not stand any chance of winning…
To a very large extent, we can project who could win where, but the margins and the impact of who takes more of second positions? Circle it!
We are already tired of emphasizing this. Let the election day come. Here are 3 factors to take into consideration:
Normally the percentage of people who vote during Nigeria elections is low. This time, the number of likely new voters will be more than the number of old voters
The new voters picked their PVC for a reason. They are carrying out a revolution
Incumbent govt wants to redeem some image because apparently it did everything wrong and Nigerians ignored them. Nigeria youths want to vote first, then they decide on the actions to take after the outcome of the elections.
With the above, it is clear it is the youths deciding now.
A year ago a well known Pundit who constantly talks up the current regime, and the prospects of Tinubu made a vitriolic attack on Peter Obi, something that later became a hallmark of his posts on here.
It started fairly innocuously, interwoven with impartial upbeat reports on Nigeria (which I like). His Obi bashing bandwagon became gradually more intense as time went on.
I made a partially joking comment, which both his own readership, and the Obi supporters crashing his party to vilify him, did not appreciate.
I accused him of being a ‘closet’ Obi supporter! Nobody got it.
Why? Because when he started on this narrative, nobody was talking about Peter Obi. Everyone was talking a two horse race between Tinubu and Atiku.
By talking down Obi incessantly with half-truths and misrepresentations, he actually unknowingly HELPED the Obi campaign… Why?
Because if you genuinely believe your candidate can’t lose, you would only write about the great things he or she is, and is capable of. Down-talking another candidate means you think they are a genuine risk.
This hints to undecided voters that there may be merit in the opponent.
So sorry for poor Atiku and his supporters (not really). Apparently this Tinubu camp doesn’t think he is even worth the focus of their criticism.
Obi has been propelled from a distant third placer on par with some who have since dropped out of the race.
While not discounting the effort of Peter Obi and his team to reach the level of traction that has been achieved, we also cannot discount the manner in which online efforts to lobby against him have not only failed but have probably unintentionally had the opposite effect.
As a political aspirant, the thing that is worse than adverse talk about you, is when there is no talk at all.
The other thing this has dispelled, is the notion that Social Media and Online Platforms do not matter. The youth, and the diaspora are all over these online media like a rash. So where are these minions that other candidates say are disconnected… is it not tens of thousands of villages, like Ndubuisi Ekekwe’s ‘Ovim’ all over Nigeria?
And where is it that those hustling in Lagos or Abuja, those in University, go when there is a religious celebration, a wedding or a wake? Where do you think money sent home from Diaspora goes?
And with all of this interaction… where do you think gist reaches the elders and those who remain ‘local’ – those supposedly beyond the influence of online platforms?
Is it not all these villages? Is it not everybody’s ‘Ovim’?
Spraying maggi cube and sharing bag of rice is only a moment in time, every 4 years.
Diaspora support is unending, and forever.
Eh heh now!