Argentina’s economic activity likely expanded by 1.7% year-on-year in November, according to the median estimate from analysts surveyed by Reuters.
This points to a second consecutive month of decelerating growth and underscores signs that the country’s post-stabilization rebound is losing pace.
The forecast comes after a stronger performance earlier in the year, when economic activity rose 4.8% in September before easing to 3.2% in October. November’s projected outcome would mark the softest annual expansion in several months, reinforcing concerns that momentum is tapering as the economy adjusts to tighter financial conditions and weaker domestic demand.
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Argentina, Latin America’s third-largest economy, has managed to avoid outright contraction throughout 2025, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics. That uninterrupted run of positive readings has been welcomed by policymakers and investors, particularly after years marked by high inflation, capital controls, and repeated downturns. Still, the latest estimates suggest the recovery is becoming narrower and more uneven across sectors.
The projections are based on estimates from 12 local and foreign analysts, who, on average, expect November’s Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) to rise by 1.7%. Forecasts varied widely, ranging from flat growth at the low end to an increase of 3.1% at the high end, highlighting uncertainty over how sharply activity is slowing and where the pressure points lie.
The EMAE is closely watched as a leading indicator of gross domestic product, offering early signals on the direction of the broader economy. A cooling reading for November would suggest that the initial boost from macroeconomic stabilization and improved confidence earlier in the year is fading, leaving growth increasingly dependent on a pickup in investment, credit, and real household incomes.
Consulting firm Orlando Ferreres and Associates, which projected a 1.6% increase in November activity, pointed to notable weakness in industry and commerce. Those sectors have been weighed down by subdued consumption, high financing costs, and the lagged effects of fiscal tightening, all of which have constrained output and business turnover.
Even so, analysts remain broadly optimistic about the medium-term outlook. Orlando Ferreres said prospects for 2026 remain positive, citing a drop in country risk, rising investment flows, improved access to credit, and stronger household income dynamics, supported by what it described as a more organized macroeconomic and political environment. Lower country risk could ease borrowing costs, while improved credit conditions may help unlock postponed investment decisions and support a gradual recovery in consumption.
The November estimates also arrive at a moment when Argentina is seeking to consolidate gains from its economic reset. Policymakers face the challenge of sustaining growth while keeping inflation under control and maintaining fiscal discipline. With the pace of expansion easing, future growth is likely to hinge less on short-term stabilization effects and more on structural improvements that lift productivity and restore purchasing power.
Argentina’s statistics agency INDEC is scheduled to release the official November EMAE figures on Wednesday at 4 p.m. local time (1900 GMT). The data will offer a clearer view of whether the slowdown is concentrated in specific sectors or signals a broader cooling across the economy.
For now, November’s expected reading points to an economy that has stabilized but is still searching for a stronger and more durable growth engine as it heads into 2026.