Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Iran on Tuesday, creating a major dislocation in geopolitics. In this trip, he will meet (or has met) with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is also included. Simply, Russia and Iran are now one and only one.
“We are strengthening our cooperation on international security issues, making a significant contribution to the settlement of the Syrian conflict, ” Putin said in Tehran. The US dollar is also on the table: ‘He [Khamenei] said Putin had ensured Russia “maintained its independence” from the United States and expressed support for countries to start using their own national currencies when trading goods. “The U.S. dollar should be gradually taken off global trade, and this can be done gradually,” Khamenei said.’
This trip has a huge implication. Though the agenda will be on Syria, the implication is massive for the conflict in Ukraine. Largely, in Europe’s heartland, Iran now has an umbilical cord via Russia. If you are European Union, which one do you prefer? The Russia of old that was closer to Brussels or the emerging Russia with kindreds from Iran and China, in your homeland? A catalytic shift in the world order – and I boldly write that “things have indeed fallen apart”.
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That fall will affect Africa in many ways: for the next ten years, Europe will focus on rebuilding Ukraine and stabilizing it. Typically, after these wars, weapons morph into bad hands, causing problems for neighbours. As they confront those issues, Africa will likely be forgotten. So, if we want to take care of business, the continent needs to #plan now.
Russia’s relationship with Iran has alerted Western officials as he prepares to ramp up ground offensives in eastern Ukraine following his troops’ capture of the Luhansk region.
Recently declassified US intelligence indicates that Iran is expected to supply Russia with “hundreds” of drones — including weapons-capable drones — for use in the war in Ukraine, with Iran preparing to begin training Russian forces on how to operate them as early as late July, according to White House officials.
“Russia turning to Iran for the help speaks volumes about the degree to which both nations, for their actions into different areas of the world, have been increasingly isolated by the international community,” the National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby told CNN last week.
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Comment: As you say “Africa will suffer this”, the first scenario that came to mind were the series of tuition free scholarships Africans enjoy every year in UK and European universities.
August 2nd, Chevening will open application, September Commonwealth will commence, DAAD and others will follow suite, I just imagined all these cancelled out for a moment. And this is just education.
My Response: Those scholarships are immaterial for geopolitics. All scholarships Europe gives African students may not exceed $10m in a year. In Ukraine, they could be spending $2 billion per month to keep it running. (Nigeria wastes $10 BILLION yearly on fuel subsidy) Leave the scholarship and focus on important elements.
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Did I read that Europe will forget Africa while trying to rebuild Ukraine? I think you are giving Europeans too much credit here. What capacity do they really have and have they ever been in the business of building Africa, in what way exactly? This is a state whose great past was because they stole their way to prosperity, and their future even bleak, because they neither have resources nor lead in innovation. It’s Europe that actually needs help, and not Africa.
This idea of underrating our continent just because others say so, is something we must first overcome, I do not see any relevant thing Europe offers Africa we cannot substitute with alternatives. We keep giving the mafias so much credit that they do not deserve, for stealing us blind and destabilizing our continent; yet we don’t seem to recognize the evil they have constantly unleashed in this unique continent.
Russia is already leading the way on how to call the bluff of the supposed big boys, and the latter will keep issuing statements, harping on the alleged unity of ‘international community’, whatever that phrase means. Now Iran is joining, and soon North Korea will raise its hand, and the number will continue to increase.
I think I like where we are headed.
I understand your point Francis Oguaju but the way African leaders gave done their jobs, we can give Europe partial credit. See it this way – AU has pushed for Europe to lift some sanctions on Russia. This week, they have removed some sanctions (ports, ship, etc on agro foods, and fertilizers) because Russia is #1 on wheat, fertilizers, etc. If they do not do that, 2023 will be a nightmare for your continent. So, we cannot feed ourselves without Europe. For the EU, if you do not lift those sanctions, Africa can be in a mess and homeland Europe will not have peace.