Senator Tinubu has a huge challenge ahead to win the APC primaries because Atiku has literally disqualified him, if APC desires to win the presidency in 2023. Tinubu being a muslim from South would naturally select a Northern christian as a Vice President. Unfortunately, that playbook may not change the permutation for voters in the North since Atiku (a muslim) is already a presidential candidate. It would be an own-goal if he goes to select a muslim North since muslim-muslim, like christian-christian ticket will not fly easily in today’s Nigeria.
So, what are his options? He can decide to forgo North and bank on Buhari and APC structure’s weight to get him votes in the North, marginally reducing Atiku’s positioning. If that is the plan, Engr David Umahi of Ebonyi becomes attractive.
(I wrote in October 2018 that both would represent APC when Umahi was still in PDP.. My call has changed as I had expected PDP to zone the 2023 Presidency to South, based on its tradition. Of course, that did not happen. I did get that Umahi will win the governorship and decamp to APC, but other things would likely be wrong.)
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Sure, this will be unprecedented in the history of Nigeria with a South-South ticket going for it. But for the party, that may be the only path if they want to go with him. Atiku’s coronation by PDP is a big challenge for Tinubu and also provides an apparatus to test new alignments in Nigerian politics.
Yet, it looks increasingly evident that APC may not align around Tinubu. And if that happens, he needs to make that call I publicly asked him to make: call Peter Obi!
Ahead on 2023 – The Bola Tinubu and David Umahi Presidential Ticket
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If not that I know you, I would have said that you are now working for the APC. But please, stop giving APC a hand, we want them to make their own wrong move, just like the PDP, so that we can bury both together.
For those still arguing whether Peter Obi stands a chance, well, both the APC and PDP are the ones creating the chance, same way Jonathan helped APC to win 2015. It is not complicated, when you self-destruct, those who are close by pick the pieces of what is left.
In 2014, the APC was in one corner ranting, they never had any path to Aso Rock, until they received unprecedented and unsolicited gifts from the PDP: five governors defected, the folks in the national assembly moved, and magically, the APC became the dominant party. It wasn’t because the party worked very hard, rather the PDP imploded, that was how the APC became ‘attractive’, forget the lies and shenanigans.
This 2022 is looking very beautiful, because when the gods want to destroy you, they first make you mad. Go north, you are in trouble, go south, you are in trouble; that is the position right now. The PDP is a specialist in self-destruction, it didn’t even wait for the enemy to ignite the fire, rather it moved very quickly to burn itself.
Game on…
Atiku is afraid, religion has nothing to do with the political calculation. During Jonathan regime, the VP was northern Muslim and nothing happened. For APC to choose northern Christian will be a kind of yielding to the call for inclusiveness. Because northern Christian see themselve as minority.