The Bitcoin Bull Score is a composite on-chain metric developed by CryptoQuant, ranging from 0 to 10. It aggregates 10 key indicators to gauge Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, including: MVRV Ratio— Market Value to Realized Value, measuring investor profitability.
ETF flows (institutional inflows/outflows). Stablecoin liquidity on the Bitcoin network. Demand growth; Trader margins, and others like Coinbase premium and long-term holder (LTH) behavior.
A score below 40 typically signals bearish conditions, while above 60 indicates a bull market. At 0, it reflects extreme weakness—all components are below their trends—often marking capitulation or distribution phases.
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As of early November 2025, the Bull Score plunged to 0, the first time since January 2022 or June 2022 per some reports, right before the last major bear market that saw Bitcoin drop from $69,000 to under $16,000.
This drop coincides with Bitcoin slipping below $100,000 after months of consolidation near six figures, breaking the 365-day moving average ($102,000)—a key support level that confirmed the 2022 bear start.
Investors are holding less unrealized profit or entering losses, with ~1/3 of circulating BTC now underwater. Weak Inflows: ETF and corporate buying has slowed; outflows persist. LTH Distribution: Long-term holders continue selling, not re-accumulating.
Stablecoin supply on Bitcoin networks contracted sharply over the past month. Despite the score’s extremity, Bitcoin remains at historically high prices (~$100K), unlike the 2022 capitulation from peak levels. Analysts describe this as a “late-bull to early-bear transition” rather than full-blown collapse.
Hit 0 after bull consolidation. Potential extended consolidation or deeper correction to $72K–$91K in 1–2 months. Still near ATHs; no leverage bubble, but no new demand.
Historically, a 0 reading has signaled either bottoms (e.g., 2020) or late-cycle tops before reversals. CryptoQuant warns of “prolonged consolidation” without quick rebounds in ETF inflows, liquidity, and LTH buying.
Contrarians on X argue it’s “fear manipulation” for market makers to accumulate, potentially setting up a reversal. Recent posts echo the bearish tilt but mix caution with opportunism: Many highlight the 2022 parallel, warning of volatility and possible $72K tests.
Bullish takes: “This is the reset—buy the fear” or “Local bottom in bull cycle, not breakdown.” Watch for ETF data and LTH behavior; no fresh inflows = more downside risk.
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. It is an on-chain valuation metric for Bitcoin and other UTXO-based cryptocurrencies that compares Market Value (MV) ÷ Realized Value (RV). The result is a unitless ratio that tells you how over- or undervalued Bitcoin is relative to the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain.
Extreme Overvaluation Euphoria; most holders in high unrealized profit ? high selling pressure risk. Historically seen at cycle tops (e.g., Dec 2017: ~9, Nov 2021: ~4.5). Bullish / Overvalued: Strong bull market; profits are high but not extreme.
Balanced; price ? average cost basis. Healthy accumulation phase. Most holders in loss ? selling exhaustion, potential cycle bottoms (e.g., Dec 2018: 0.8, Mar 2020: 0.85). Extreme fear; historic buying opportunities.
MVRV peaks are lower in recent cycles due to institutional adoption, lost coins, and higher realized cap. High MVRV ? most holders can sell at profit ? increases supply. Low MVRV ? holders refuse to sell at loss ? reduces supply ? supports price.
On-Chain Transparency: Unlike market cap, RV is anchored in actual transaction data. ~20–25% of BTC is lost forever ? inflates Realized Value ? underestimates overvaluation.
Exchange Withdrawals. Coins moved to cold storage don’t update RV ? lags behind HODLing.
MVRV can stay high/low for months. Best used with momentum, volume, or funding rates. Macro influence ignores fiat liquidity, interest rates, geopolitics. Profit-taking phase, but not yet capitulation. ? Aligns with Bull Score = 0, signaling weakening demand, not collapse.
MVRV tells you whether Bitcoin is trading above or below the average price investors paid for their coins — high MVRV = profit-taking risk, low MVRV = accumulation opportunity.
Overall, this isn’t a guaranteed bear market yet—it’s a wake-up call for demand. If inflows return, it could be a mid-cycle shakeout; otherwise, brace for chop.