Major investment bank Standard Chartered has delivered one of the more sobering near-term outlooks for the cryptocurrency market in recent months.
In a recent commentary shared by reporter Bloomberg, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Assets Research, now anticipates Bitcoin sliding to around $50,000 and Ethereum (ETH) dropping toward $1,400 in the coming months
This prediction represents roughly 26% further downside for BTC and 29% for ETH from mid-February 2026 levels where BTC hovered near $67,000 and ETH near $1,950–$2,000.
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The global thought leader on digital assets attributed the potential downturn to a softening U.S. economy, declining holdings in digital asset ETFs, and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts until at least June, all of which continue to weigh on crypto markets.
The bearish short-term call comes amid persistent ETF outflows (nearing $8 billion in cumulative redemptions in some reports), softening U.S. economic signals, and the continued delay of meaningful Federal Reserve rate cuts (now not expected until potentially June or later).
After a brief period of optimism that saw Bitcoin price stabilize trading above $72,000, after falling as low as $59,847 earlier this month, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has resumed its downward trajectory, reflecting a sharp shift in investor sentiment.
Bitcoin is down 23% year-to-date and approximately 40% off its late-2025 peak. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen into single digits (Extreme Fear territory). Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows remain net negative in recent weeks, with daily outflows occasionally exceeding $400 million.
With Bitcoin consolidating between the $66,000 and $67,000 zone, several analysts note that Bitcoin’s recent price structure reflects a market still dominated by distribution pressure rather than sustained demand recovery.
Standard Chartered has now revised its end-of-2026 price targets downward for the second time since late 2025. The bank has reduced it Bitcoin price projection ti $100,000 (previously $150,000; originally $300,000 in earlier 2025 forecasts. Also, its price for Ethereum was reduced to $4,000, previously $7,500.
Similar cuts were applied to several altcoins:
– Solana (SOL) ? $135 (from $250)
– BNB ? $1,050 (from $1,755)
– Avalanche (AVAX) ? $18 (from $100)
– XRP ? $2.80 (from $8.00 in some prior views)
Despite the cuts, the bank insists its long-term constructive view remains intact. It continues to project Bitcoin reaching $500,000, Ethereum $40,000, and Solana $2,000 by the end of 2030.
Kendrick highlighted several reinforcing factors for near-term weakness:
1. ETF investor behavior — Many recent buyers are sitting on unrealized losses and appear more inclined to reduce exposure than to “buy the dip.”
2. Macro headwinds — U.S. economic softening and delayed monetary easing remove a key tailwind that crypto had enjoyed in previous cycles.
3. Deleveraging underway — Open interest has declined, and the current correction — while painful — is described as more “orderly” than the chaotic crashes of 2018 or 2022.
Once a bottom is established around the projected levels, Kendrick expects a recovery phase through the second half of 2026, eventually carrying major assets toward the revised year-end targets.
While some traders view the $50,000 region as strong historical support (previous cycle highs and institutional cost-basis zones), others warn that capitulation selling could briefly overshoot if ETF redemptions accelerate or if broader equity markets weaken further.
Outlook
Standard Chartered’s latest note is a clear reminder that even in a maturing asset class crypto remains highly sensitive to macro liquidity conditions and institutional flows. Whether Bitcoin holds above $50,000 or tests lower will likely depend on the pace of ETF selling and any surprise shifts in Fed rhetoric over the next 1–3 months.
The bank’s outlook comes at a time when Bitcoin has been navigating heightened volatility, with investors weighing institutional inflows against tightening financial conditions and global economic uncertainty.