Bitcoin’s recent attempt to stabilize is facing renewed pressure as geopolitical risks return to the forefront of global markets.
Following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the possibility of intensified strikes against Iran in the coming weeks, investor sentiment across risk assets weakened. Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, declined alongside equities.
Bitcoin fell by as much as 2.9% to approximately $65,667 amid the heightened uncertainty. Although the asset recovered slightly to the $66,558 range, it continued to trade on a bearish note after briefly surpassing the $69,000 mark earlier in the month.
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As of Thursday, Bitcoin was trading around $66,450, representing a 47% decline from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025. This downturn has left many holders with significant unrealized losses, highlighting the ongoing risks in the market.
Despite showing some reduced sensitivity to macroeconomic developments in recent months, Bitcoin continues to broadly mirror movements in equity markets during periods of heightened uncertainty.
The cryptocurrency posted a modest 2% gain in March, breaking a five-month losing streak. This occurred even as traditional safe-haven assets like gold experienced a decline of over 11%, driven by concerns around inflation and potential disruptions in energy supply.
Underlying demand indicators, however, suggest persistent investor caution. Bitcoin remains down roughly 45% from its October peak, with data from CryptoQuant indicating that apparent demand was negative by approximately 63,000 coins as of late March.
Large holders, commonly referred to as whales, have been net sellers over the past year, while both institutional and retail investors appear to be waiting for clearer market signals before committing capital.
This cautious sentiment is also reflected in fund flows. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $174 million on Wednesday, signaling a temporary retreat by institutional investors.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain a range between $60,000 and $73,000 has been notable, particularly given the challenging macroeconomic environment. Rising oil prices approaching levels last seen in 2008 ongoing geopolitical conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, and a volatile stock market, with the S&P 500 down 3.95% year-to-date, have all contributed to market instability.
Despite these headwinds, buyers have consistently shown interest in accumulating Bitcoin at the $60,000 level, which continues to act as a key support zone. However, the possibility of further downside remains.
Crypto analyst Minga has suggested that Bitcoin may be approaching a macro bottom, describing the current phase as a critical accumulation period. According to the analyst, Bitcoin could still decline to the $58,900–$54,500 range, identifying this zone as a strategic entry point for long-term investors.
Minga further projected that Bitcoin could eventually rally beyond $120,000, potentially reaching a new all-time high of $190,000 in the next bull cycle. Another analyst, Ali Martinez, identified two key accumulation zones based on historical market patterns following 40%–50% corrections after the crossover of the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.
The first target sits at $40,000, representing a typical 30% correction from current levels. The second, more extreme scenario points to $30,000, reflecting a potential 50% decline.
Martinez noted that Bitcoin has already experienced a 52% correction and is approximately 30 days into the three-day Simple Moving Average crossover. Based on historical trends, he suggested that Bitcoin could be entering its final accumulation phase within the next three to six days, potentially marking the last significant downside before a broader market recovery.
Outlook
Bitcoin’s trajectory will likely be shaped by a combination of macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment. Continued tensions in the Middle East and hawkish policy signals from global central banks could sustain volatility across risk assets, keeping Bitcoin under pressure in the short term.
However, the cryptocurrency’s resilience within the $60,000 support zone suggests that long-term investors are still actively accumulating during price dips. If this support level holds, Bitcoin could consolidate further before attempting another move toward the $70,000–$75,000 range.
On the downside, a break below $60,000 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially pushing the asset toward the $54,000 region highlighted by analysts, or even lower accumulation zones near $40,000.