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Brazil vs Japan Preview
Brazil square off against Japan in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 at Houston Stadium (NRG Stadium), with kick-off set for 19:00 on Monday 29 June.
Houston Stadium, featuring a closed retractable roof on match day, will manage conditions to beat the summer heat. Outside temperatures are expected to be around 33°C (91°F) at kick-off, while the temperature inside the stadium will be at a comfortable 22°C (72°F).
Brazil topped Group C on goal difference ahead of Morocco after both teams collected seven points. The Selecao opened their campaign with a 1-1 draw against Morocco before beating Haiti 3-0.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side then secured top spot with a 3-0 victory over Scotland at Miami Stadium. Brazil enjoyed 54% possession and registered nine shots on target, with Vinicius Junior scoring twice and Matheus Cunha also getting on the scoresheet.
Japan finished second in Group F on five points, two behind group winners the Netherlands. Hajime Moriyasu’s men began with a 2-2 draw against the Dutch before cruising to a 4-0 victory over Tunisia.
The Samurai Blue rounded off the group stage with a 1-1 draw against Sweden at Dallas Stadium. Japan had 52% possession and registered three shots on target, with Daizen Maeda scoring their only goal.
Japan Claimed First Win Over Brazil in 2025
The teams have met 14 times, with Brazil recording 11 wins, Japan claiming one victory and two matches ending in draws. Their most recent meeting came in a friendly at Tokyo Stadium in October 2025, when Japan won 3-2.
| FIFA World Cup | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | P | |
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Brazil – Last 10 Competitive Games
5 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.5 goals from 9.6 attempts and 4.4 shots on goal. Brazil had 56.1% possession and 4.6 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 0.8 goals from 8.7 attempts and 3.8 shots on goal, while earning 3.8 corners.
Players to Watch
Vinicius Junior leads the way with 6 goals, Matheus Cunha has 4, with Estevao and two others on 1. Bruno Guimaraes has the most assists with 3, while goalkeeper Alisson Becker has 2 clean sheets.
Japan – Last 3 Competitive Games
Japan have 1 victory and 2 draws, averaging 9.7 attempts, 3.7 shots on goal and 2.3 goals. The Samurai Blue average 51.3% possession, 438.3 passes, 3.7 corners awarded and 5.3 corners against them, while 1.0 goals have been conceded from 3.7 shots on goal and 7.7 attempts.
Players to Watch
Daichi Kamada and Ayase Ueda have scored 2, followed by Daizen Maeda with 1. Ritsu Doan, Ko Itakura and Keito Nakamura have had 1 assists in the last 3 games, while Zion Suzuki has one clean sheet to his name.
Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Brazil predicted lineup (4-1-2-3): Alisson Becker (GK), Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos, Casemiro, Bruno Guimaraes, Lucas Paqueta, Rayan, Matheus Cunha, Vinicius Junior.
Japan predicted lineup (3-4-2-1): Zion Suzuki (GK), Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ko Itakura, Hiroki Ito, Yukinari Sugawara, Ao Tanaka, Daichi Kamada, Keito Nakamura, Ritsu Doan, Daizen Maeda, Ayase Ueda.
Main Match Prediction
We’re confident with our selection of Brazil to land a victory, with odds of 1.66 looking really generous. We think they have the ability to claim a win in this Round of 32 game.
We have been impressed by Brazil’s performances so far and both the underlying statistics and xG data support our view. The Selecao have created plenty of chances while remaining solid defensively, making them worthy favourites here.
Japan have performed admirably, but the absence of key players such as Takefusa Kubo and Wataru Endo leaves them looking vulnerable. We expect Brazil’s superior quality to shine through and are backing them to get the job done.
We always have a keen eye on team news, while our football experts have their finger on the pulse by knowing the latest form. You will also find a compendium of stats which provide some valuable pointers ahead of the World Cup action.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction:
- Brazil have won 5 of their last 6 games.
- Brazil have won 2 consecutive games.
- Brazil have scored two or more goals in 5 of their last 6 games.
- Japan have failed to win 2 of their 3 World Cup games.
Brazil to Win Probability
The latest odds at the best betting sites suggest our pick carries a 60.2% chance of winning. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be 65-70%. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
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Can Brazil Gain the Upper Hand?
We’ll back Brazil with a fair degree of confidence when they clash with Japan. At betting odds of 1.66 on the Full-Time Result market, this looks a value pick and we expect a return.
The betting analysis below explores the strongest selections for Brazil vs Japan, including the complete breakdown of our main match prediction, plus our correct score prediction, player prop picks and bet builder tips.