We reveal our Paraguay vs. Germany best bets for their FIFA World Cup 2026 match as the knockout round continues on Monday
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The first full day of 2026 World Cup Round of 32 action comes on Monday, and there are three matches on the slate. The middle one is Germany vs. Paraguay as the heavily-favored Germans hope to roll into the Round of 16. Germany won Group E with six points after beating Curacao and Ivory Coast. They lost to Ecuador in their third game after already clinching the top spot. Paraguay, meanwhile, bounced back from a 4-1 loss to the USA in their opener with a win over Turkiye and a draw against Australia to take third in Group D with four points, which was enough to advance.
Kickoff for Germany vs. Paraguay is at 4:30 p.m. ET from Foxborough, Mass. The latest Germany vs. Paraguay odds from FanDuel Sportsbook list Germany as the -300 favorites (risk $300 to win $100) on the 90-minute money line, with Paraguay at +850 and a draw at +400. Germany are -750 to advance, while Paraguay are +490. The over/under for total goals is 2.5. Before locking in any Germany vs. Paraguay picks.
Top Germany vs. Paraguay predictions
After examining Paraguay vs. Germany from every angle, Green is leaning Over 2.5 total goals (-142). The Germans scored a combined nine goals in their two meaningful group stage matches, so they have the firepower to potentially handle this number themselves.
Paraguay are not as strong on paper, but they’ll be able to play loose as the underdog and feature some strong players such as Omar Alderete and Julio Enciso, leading to what could be a higher-scoring match. See Green’s best bets for Germany vs. Paraguay at SportsLine, and you can bet the Over in Paraguay vs. Germany at Win Beast here:
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Game details
- Teams: Germany vs. Paraguay
- Date: Monday, June 29, 2026
- Time: 4:30 PM ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium| Foxborough, Massachusetts
- TV: Fox, Peacock, Telemundo
- World Cup standings: Current World Cup group stage standings
Expert Prediction: Germany vs. Paraguay World Cup
Germany is the more likely side to control this Round of 32 matchup, with Dimers’ sims giving Germany a 67.9% win probability compared to 12.8% for Paraguay and 19.3% for the draw. The same model lists Paraguay 0-2 Germany as the most likely correct score, which fits the broader market view of Germany’s attacking edge and Paraguay’s challenge creating enough chances to keep pace. Paraguay has enough counterattacking quality to make this uncomfortable in stretches, but Germany’s depth in the final third gives it the stronger path to a regulation win.
Conclusion: Polymarket backing Germany vs. Paraguay
Germany vs. Paraguay brings a clear favorite into a knockout-round setting where one mistake can change the bracket. Dimers’ sims point toward Germany as the stronger side and list 0-2 as the most likely correct score, while the Polymarket positions also show traders backing Germany to advance. Paraguay’s resilience makes this more than a walkover, but the best read is Germany controlling the key chances and moving on to the Round of 16.