Bullish Inc, the crypto exchange backed by Peter Thiel and parent company of CoinDesk, reported its strongest quarter since going public in August 2025.
For Q3 2025, the firm swung to a net income of $18.5 million, a dramatic turnaround from a $67.3 million loss in the prior-year period. This equated to earnings per share (EPS) of $0.10, aligning with analyst estimates.
Adjusted revenue: $76.5 million, up 72% year-over-year from $44.6 million, fueled by the launch of U.S. spot markets and crypto options trading. Adjusted EBITDA: $28.6 million, a 271% increase.
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Options trading milestone surpassed $1 billion in volume shortly after launch. Assets under management: Grew to $49 billion tied to Bullish indices, up from $41 billion. Despite these positives, BLSH shares fell 3.5% to 8% on November 19, 2025, trading around $36.42—below its $37 IPO price.
The stock has declined nearly 40% over the past month, reflecting broader caution toward newly public crypto firms. Analysts like Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an “overweight” rating but trimmed the price target to $56 from $59, citing sector-wide multiple compression.
Investor reaction may stem from a slight dip in adjusted transaction revenue to $26.7 million from $32.9 million due to lighter trading volumes, even as institutional adoption grew. CEO Tom Farley emphasized momentum:
We launched our crypto options trading and U.S. spot trading businesses, signed notable institutional clients, and expanded our liquidity services.
Looking ahead, Q4 guidance projects subscriptions, services, and other revenue (SS&O) between $47–$53 million, with adjusted operating expenses at $48–$50 million. Notably, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest added $10.2 million in BLSH shares across three ETFs just days prior.
Bitcoin Miner Fees Hit 12-Month Low: Spotlight on Subsidy Dependence
Bitcoin transaction fees for miners have plunged to a 12-month low of about $300,000 per day as of mid-November 2025, accounting for less than 1% of total miner revenue.
This underscores the network’s ongoing heavy reliance on block subsidies, which currently provide ~$45 million daily based on 3.125 BTC per block at prevailing prices. Bitcoin’s reward structure splits miner income between: Block subsidy: Newly minted BTC halved to 3.125 BTC post-2024 halving, set to continue declining until zero issuance around 2140.
Transaction fees: Paid by users for block inclusion, which fluctuate with network demand. Historically, fees spiked during high-activity periods—like 2023–2024 Ordinals and Runes hype—peaking at over 40% of revenue.
But with calmer on-chain usage primarily as a monetary transfer layer rather than app platform, fees now contribute minimally. Post-halving, subsidies dominate even more, raising long-term questions about fee growth to sustain security as subsidies fade.
This isn’t an immediate crisis—the next halving isn’t until 2028, and aggregate miner revenue remains robust ~$1 billion+ monthly. Solutions could include rising Bitcoin prices boosting subsidy value in fiat terms, broader adoption for fee-generating transactions, or innovations like Layer-2 scaling.
Still, it highlights the need for organic demand growth to transition toward a fee-dominant model without compromising hash rate or network integrity.
The $18.5 M profit and 72% revenue growth were already priced in after the IPO hype and ARK Invest buying. Investors focused on the sequential drop in transaction revenue and broader de-rating of public crypto stocks.
BLSH still trades with relatively low float and high short interest ~18%. Any negative headline triggers outsized moves. The dip reinforces that newly public crypto companies Bullish, Circle, Kraken if it lists are trading more like high-beta growth stocks than stable financials, highly sensitive to BTC price and macro liquidity.
Bullish is proving it can generate real earnings from institutional flow options, custody, indices rather than just retail spot trading. This is a differentiator vs. Coinbase, which still derives ~70–80% from retail transaction fees.
If Bullish keeps hitting $25–30 M quarterly EBITDA while trading at ~8× EV/EBITDA current levels, it becomes an attractive takeover target for traditional exchanges Nasdaq, CME, ICE or banks wanting regulated crypto exposure.
Cathie Wood/ARK adding shares signals belief that regulated, U.S.-focused crypto infrastructure will compound as Trump administration eases enforcement. At ~$70k–$100k BTC, the 3.125 BTC subsidy is worth ~$220k–$310k per block. Even with tiny fees, daily revenue per block is still $230k–$320k—plenty to keep most efficient miners profitable.
Hash-rate growth will slow or stall in 2026–2027 as marginal miners older-gen machines get squeezed post-halving profitability cliff. The 2028 halving to 1.5625 BTC will cut subsidy revenue another 50%. If BTC price doesn’t at least double from the halving price and fees remain <10% of revenue, a large portion of current hash rate becomes unprofitable.
Security budget debate re-ignited: Bitcoin’s long-term economic security ultimately depends on transaction fee volume growing 10–20× from today’s levels. Current data shows the opposite trend outside of periodic meme-coin/Ordinals spikes.
Higher BTC price linearly increases subsidy value in USD, buying another 4–8 years of breathing room. Organic fee market growth: Requires widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a settlement layer (Lightning, Ark, statechains, BitVM apps, stablecoins on Bitcoin, etc.).
Tail emission or protocol change: Extremely unlikely and politically toxic in the core community. Hash rate centralization: Less efficient miners shut off ? surviving large industrial players like Marathon, Riot, CleanSpark, Bitfarms capture more share ? higher geographic and corporate concentration risk.
Bullish’s earnings prove institutions are willing to pay premium fees on regulated venues ? potential fee upside for Bitcoin if similar institutional activity migrates on-chain or via Layer-2. But today’s fee collapse shows retail-driven hype cycles are not sticky enough to replace subsidies yet.
Bitcoin’s economic security remains a 2030–2040 problem, not a 2025–2027 problem, as long as price trends upward every cycle. The Bullish result is mildly bullish for that thesis—regulated venues can extract healthy fees from institutions, hinting at what a mature fee market could eventually look like.