The chances of the U.S. Clarity Act becoming law have taken a sharp hit, with prediction market Polymarket, now putting the bill’s odds of passage at just 20%.
The figure marks a steep drop of roughly 45 percentage points from earlier levels, according to recent Polymarket data highlighted by Cointelegraph.
The steep decline signals growing uncertainty over the legislation’s prospects as lawmakers face mounting challenges in advancing a long-awaited regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry.
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In a recent speech at the SALT Conference, Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the CLARITY Act, is scheduled for a Senate vote on September 15 at 2 p.m.
The Senate Banking Committee advanced related text in May 2026, and Lummis later released merged language combining Banking and Agriculture Committee work.
Progress stalled before the August recess amid disagreements over ethics provisions covering officials’ digital asset holdings, illicit finance measures, stablecoin rewards, and related issues.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed in early August, formally queuing the bill for consideration when the chamber returns.
The bill seeks to establish a clearer federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. It would primarily divide oversight between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for digital commodities and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for assets treated as securities.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) retains authority over certain investment contracts and primary offerings that meet securities criteria, while creating exemptions for mature blockchains under specific conditions.
The legislation aims to reduce regulatory uncertainty that has long affected crypto markets, token issuers, and trading platforms. The House passed the bill in July 2025 with strong bipartisan support, 294-134.
Supporters argue it would reduce years of regulatory uncertainty, encourage more institutional participation, bring activity onshore, and provide rules of the road for exchanges, issuers, and related services. The decline in odds reflects growing skepticism about whether lawmakers can complete the remaining steps this year.
Key challenges include the need for 60 Senate votes to overcome a potential filibuster, which requires bipartisan support; unresolved negotiations over ethics provisions related to officials’ crypto-related holdings and activities; competing legislative priorities; and a compressed calendar.
Earlier in 2026 the market had priced the chances much higher, at times exceeding 70-80%, before the steady erosion as delays mounted. Industry observers note that the prediction market is largely pricing a timing and political-math problem rather than a complete rejection of the underlying policy goals.
Many in the crypto sector continue to view comprehensive market-structure legislation as important for long-term clarity, even if passage slips beyond 2026. Tokenization of real-world assets and other infrastructure work are expected to proceed under existing frameworks regardless of the bill’s fate this year.
Outlook
The CLARITY Act now faces a critical test when the Senate returns, with the September 15 vote potentially determining whether the legislation can regain momentum or face another round of delays.
A successful vote would likely strengthen market confidence and revive expectations that the bill could become law before the end of the year. However, failure to secure the necessary bipartisan support could push the legislation into 2027 and further prolong uncertainty for the U.S. digital asset industry.
For crypto markets, the immediate outlook is therefore likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Senate, particularly negotiations over unresolved provisions and the ability of lawmakers to assemble the 60 votes needed to advance the bill.