Coinbase Global (COIN) reported its Q4 2025 earnings (covering October-December 2025) after market close on February 12, 2026, and the results came in below Wall Street expectations amid a broader cryptocurrency market downturn.
Total revenue: $1.78 billion, missing analyst estimates of around $1.83–$1.85 billion; a miss of roughly 2.5–3.8% depending on the consensus source. Adjusted EPS: $0.66 per share, significantly below expectations of $0.86–$1.05, a larger miss on the earnings side, around 23–37%.
Transaction revenue: Fell to $982.7 million below $1 billion, down from prior periods due to weaker trading volumes and lower crypto prices. A GAAP net loss of approximately $667 million or -$2.49 per share, driven largely by unrealized losses on crypto holdings and investments, marking a swing from profitability in the year-ago quarter.
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Subscription and services revenue provided some support at around $727 million, and the company highlighted operational strengths like doubled trading volume market share in 2025 overall, but the cyclical nature of crypto weighed heavily.
The earnings miss reflects a slowdown in crypto trading activity, with Bitcoin and other assets experiencing price declines into early 2026, reducing fee-based revenue despite solid user engagement in some areas.Regarding the stock (COIN): It dropped sharply on the news, closing down about 7.9% on February 12, 2026 from around $153 to $141.
Looking at the recent week roughly February 6–13, 2026, the stock has been under pressure overall, with notable declines in the days leading into and following earnings. From earlier February levels, it trended lower, aligning with a weekly decline on the order of 3% or more when factoring pre-earnings weakness and the post-earnings drop (though exact week-to-date figures vary by precise timeframe; the headline’s “falls 3% on the week” appears to capture the net performance amid volatility).
Shares showed some after-hours recovery in initial trading post-release but remain well below 2025 highs, reflecting investor concerns over the crypto “winter” cycle. Coinbase executives noted in their shareholder letter that crypto is inherently cyclical, and the current environment isn’t as dire fundamentally as sentiment suggests.
COIN shares closed down 7.9% on February 12 from around $153 to $141.09, with heavy volume reflecting investor disappointment over the revenue shortfall (3% miss on consensus) and especially the swing to a large GAAP net loss. Pre-market trading on February 13 showed some recovery attempts but the stock remains volatile and near recent lows.
The drop contributed to ongoing weekly weakness amid a softer crypto environment where Bitcoin hovers around $69K and other majors like ETH and SOL are also down modestly. This reinforces COIN’s high beta to crypto sentiment—earnings misses in downturns amplify downside more than beats do upside in rallies.
Several firms cut price targets post-release, Rosenblatt from $325 to $240, JPMorgan to ~$252–$290 range while maintaining overweight/buy ratings, citing limited near-term upside but viewing the dip as potentially overdone with regulatory tailwinds like the CLARITY Act possible in coming months.
Some see RSI oversold signals suggesting short-term bounce potential if crypto stabilizes. The miss drivers: Transaction revenue ~$983M fell due to lower trading volumes and crypto prices in late 2025.
Adjusted EPS ($0.66) missed by ~23–37%, while the GAAP net loss of ~$667M stemmed largely from non-cash items: ~$718M in unrealized losses on crypto holdings and investments and other charges. Revenue ($1.78B) was down ~5% QoQ and ~20–22% YoY, reflecting cyclical weakness despite diversification efforts.
Subscription and services revenue ~$727M held up better, supported by Coinbase One nearing 1M paid subscribers, up significantly, USDC-related income, staking, and institutional products like financing/derivatives. Full-year 2025 showed strength: trading volume doubled market share, total volume hit $5.2T, and the company met guidance in prior quarters.
Strong balance sheet: ~$11.3B in cash equivalents, $14B+ total resources, $1.7B in share repurchases offsetting dilution, and a new $2B authorization for opportunistic buybacks. Q1 2026 subscription/services projected at $550–$630M signaling continued cyclical headwinds but confidence in non-trading streams.
Brian Armstrong and Alesia Haas emphasized the “Everything Exchange” narrative working—record highs in products like Coinbase One, USDC balances, and derivatives/staking growth offsetting retail trading softness. This reduces reliance on volatile transaction fees, positioning Coinbase better for prolonged “crypto winter” phases compared to pure-play exchanges.
The results highlight crypto’s inherent boom-bust cycles—2025 was strong overall, but Q4 slowdown flipped profitability. Management views current sentiment as overly pessimistic relative to fundamentals, with early 2026 showing some volume rebounds. Prolonged weakness could pressure margins further.
Regulatory and political uncertainties persist, though positive developments could help. Institutional outflows and macro factors add near-term drag. Short-term, COIN remains a leveraged proxy for crypto recovery—down ~40% YTD amid broader market choppiness, but with potential for rebound on sentiment shifts or catalysts.
Long-term bulls see structural advantages outweighing cyclical pain, while bears worry about sustained deleveraging in a slow-growth environment. This miss underscores Coinbase’s vulnerability to crypto downturns but also its evolving moat through diversification and capital discipline.
The stock’s reaction feels sentiment-driven rather than a death knell—watch Bitcoin stability and Q1 guidance for the next leg.