Bitcoin’s prolonged downtrend may be approaching a turning point, with CryptoQuant analyst Gaah, pointing to improving cycle momentum as a potential sign that the market’s bearish phase is losing strength.
In a chart on X, Gaah noted that the shift, currently reading just above zero at approximately 0.4, raises the probability that Bitcoin is breaking out of its prolonged downtrend and beginning a reversal of the recent bear phase.
The Bitcoin Cycle momentum indicator posted, tracks the strength and direction of Bitcoin’s longer-term cycle momentum, distinguishing broader bullish and bearish regimes against the asset’s price history.
Register for the next Tekedia Mini-MBA.
Register for Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Historical charts spanning 2013 to the present show these momentum phases aligning with major market expansions and contractions.
After remaining negative for roughly eight months, coinciding with a period of price weakness following the October 2025 all-time high near $126,000, the metric has now crossed into positive ground.
However, the analyst emphasized that full confirmation of a reversal requires the indicator to advance into the 20–30 range in the coming weeks, supported by continued upward price recovery. Without that follow-through, the current reading could prove temporary, he noted.
At the time of writing this report, Bitcoin was trading below the $77,000 range, reflecting recent volatility after climbing above the $80,000 level in late August.
The reversal posed a direct test whether August rally was a durable shift in Bitcoin’s macro positioning or simply a byproduct of falling yields that has now gone into reverse.
Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim its all-time high of around $126,000 reached in October 2025, despite staging several recovery attempts in 2026.
The cryptocurrency has remained well below the record level as investors continue to navigate weaker momentum, macroeconomic uncertainty and changing market sentiment.
One of the major factors behind Bitcoin’s inability to return to its peak has been a lack of sustained buying pressure. While institutional investors and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds remain important sources of demand, periods of ETF outflows have limited the strength of Bitcoin’s recovery.
Macroeconomic conditions have also continued to influence investor appetite. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. interest rates, inflation and broader financial conditions has encouraged investors to remain cautious toward risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2026 lows suggests that demand has not disappeared. Crypto analyst Willy Woo highlighted on Monday that Bitcoin has higher global adoption than the S&P 500 and Gold.
He stated in a post on X that roughly 5% of the world population owns Bitcoin, comparable to 4% for the S&P 500 and approximately 4.5% for Gold.
For now, Bitcoin’s return to positive territory marks a notable change after months of bearish readings and provides a data-driven point of optimism for those monitoring Bitcoin’s position within its multi-year cycles.
Market participants will likely watch whether the indicator builds further strength in the weeks ahead as price action unfolds.
Outlook
The outlook for Bitcoin remains cautiously optimistic as the Cycle Momentum indicator moves back into positive territory.
While the shift suggests that the prolonged bearish phase may be losing strength, it does not yet provide sufficient confirmation of a sustained trend reversal.
However, a failure to maintain positive momentum could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to further consolidation or another wave of selling pressure.
With the cryptocurrency still trading significantly below its October 2025 record, the coming weeks could prove critical in determining whether the recent recovery represents the beginning of a new bullish cycle or merely a temporary rebound.