Equities have rebounded sharply, while oil prices experienced extreme volatility—surging dramatically before plunging—in response to comments from President Donald Trump signaling that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran could end “very soon” or is already “very complete.”
This comes amid a roughly 10-day-old war that has disrupted Middle East energy supplies, particularly through threats around the Strait of Hormuz, driving initial market fears of prolonged disruptions and inflation.
Stock markets reversed early losses to close higher on March 9 (U.S. session), with gains carrying into Asian and European trading on March 10. The S&P 500 rose ~0.8%, Nasdaq surged ~1.3%, and Dow gained ~0.6% after erasing intraday declines tied to oil spikes.
European shares like STOXX 600 up ~1.5%, Asian indices such as KOSPI, Nikkel leading gains on de-escalation hopes, and Gulf equities mostly higher. Oil prices saw wild swings: Crude initially spiked over 30%; WTI reaching highs near $119–$120/barrel overnight and early Monday, the highest since 2022 fueled by supply disruption fears.
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Prices then collapsed sharply—erasing much or all of the surge—falling to around $85–$91/barrel (WTI ~$85–$90, Brent ~$90–$91) after Trump’s remarks eased concerns.This pullback reflects investor relief that a quick resolution could restore flows, though volatility persists with mixed signal; Iran’s defiant stance and new hardline leadership.
Trump’s comments—reported in interviews and statements—suggested the conflict is advancing faster than his initial 4–5 week estimate, describing it as potentially short-lived while warning of escalation if Iran blocks oil routes. He also floated ideas like U.S. naval escorts for tankers and possible sanctions relief elsewhere to stabilize energy markets.
Analysts note this de-escalation narrative has soothed nerves, offsetting inflation worries from high energy costs, though risks remain; Iran’s rejection of quick surrender, ongoing threats, and potential for shocks. Markets are headline-driven and could swing again on new developments from Tehran or Washington.
Gold prices have shown resilience and upward momentum following President Donald Trump’s hints at de-escalation in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, contrasting with the sharp volatility seen in oil markets. While gold typically surges as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical escalations (as it did earlier in the conflict, climbing toward record highs above $5,400/oz amid strikes and supply fears), the de-escalation signals have eased some immediate risk premiums.
However, prices have not collapsed like oil—instead, they’ve rebounded modestly, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, lingering inflation concerns from recent energy spikes, and broader structural bullish factors. Spot gold traded in a range around $5,130–$5,200+ per ounce, with gains of ~0.9–1.7% in recent sessions.
Early Asian and European trading saw advances, wiping out prior-session dips. Prices hovered near $5,140–$5,172 in some reports, with intraday pushes toward $5,180–$5,200 after Trump’s comments. This reflects a rebound from Monday’s pullback; where gold dipped amid dollar strength and initial de-escalation optimism, but remains rangebound in the $5,000–$5,200 zone.
Silver outperformed, surging nearly 5–6% in some sessions to around $89/oz highlighting broader precious metals strength. U.S. gold futures showed similar patterns, with March contracts around $5,100–$5,170. Trump’s remarks; describing the war as “very complete” and likely to end “very soon” boosted risk appetite overall, pressuring oil sharply lower and lifting equities.
For gold, this reduced acute safe-haven buying but was offset by: A softer U.S. dollar down ~0.4–0.5%, making gold more attractive to non-dollar holders. Persistent inflation worries from the prior oil surge even as prices fell back. Iran’s defiant stance, potential for renewed threats around the Strait of Hormuz, and mixed signals mean the conflict isn’t fully resolved.
Analysts note gold’s response has been “unexpectedly firm” compared to typical de-escalation sell-offs, as the metal benefits from both geopolitical tail risks and non-geopolitical drivers. Broader forecasts remain bullish, with some eyeing $5,500+ or higher by year-end if uncertainties linger.
Markets remain headline-sensitive—fresh developments from Tehran, Washington, or military fronts could trigger renewed swings. Overall, gold’s rebound underscores its role as a hedge in this volatile environment, even as de-escalation hopes provide short-term relief.