Forget Nigeria’s NCC 98Million; Use This Number for Online Model
According to the NCC (Nigerian Communications Commission), the number of internet users (not necessarily unique) in Nigeria's telecommunications networks has hit nearly 98 million. That is a big number if you are Facebook, Google and practically any company whose business is based on freemium model (making things free online). In other words, these are entities that derive their value mileages if you do them a favor by visiting their platforms.
But if you are in the business of selling things online, there is another subset that matters most: the number of Nigerians with bank accounts. I estimate that to be 30 million Nigerians. That number gives you the number of people with decent chance of buying something. Why? Any adult in Nigeria today without a bank account is probably poor.
For most analyses, across industries, I like to work with 30 million people since that number is close to the total unique bank account users in Nigeria. Technically, anyone that does not have a bank account in Nigeria at the moment is largely poor. And when I do models for markets, for most products, I rely on this 30 million because those are the full market potential at the moment, unless the product is free or in some sectors like food. Most banks excluding First Bank which has about 14 million customers have lower than 10 million customers. That is not what you expect in a country of 180 million citizens. Yes, everyone is circling around 30 million people.
NCC data has value but it all depends on your business. It is better to be humble to know that you have only 30 million to convince to spend.
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