The Hidden Danger in China’s Record Trade Surplus
China continues to widen its economic frontier. The latest numbers are staggering: despite U.S. tariffs and intensifying geopolitical pressure, China posted a record-breaking $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, driven by aggressive export diversification. Even as America tried to tighten the screws, China simply rerouted its industrial power, deepening ties with emerging markets and expanding its global footprint.
Good People, I am not sure this is something to celebrate, and China needs to moderate. This level of surplus represents a massive global imbalance with deeply asymmetric effects, particularly across Africa. With such a huge cushion, China can outcompete and overwhelm the industrial output of many nations for years through currency strategies, scale advantages, and strategic subsidies.
China, for the sake of your future customers and the long-term health of the global economy, reduce this surplus. If current trends continue, entire national industries may disappear, and when nations weaken, their markets weaken with them. In the long run, even China will struggle if its trading partners cannot survive.
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