The Politics of Crowd in Nigeria
Quote from Ndubuisi Ekekwe on December 14, 2022, 6:27 PMThanks Nurudeen Adeyemi for this. The good news about all models in elections is that there will be results one day. I called it for Buhari in 2019. I have not made a call for 2023. But in my internal model, if Obi goes to Ekiti State and 100 people show up, I expect Tinubu to have 200 since Ekiti is under APC for parity. So if Tinubu goes to Niger State and 100 people show up, and Obi goes and 51 show up, Obi is outperforming because the 51 are unstructured human elements with no infrastructure to stimulate attendance.
Tinubu will have a great crowd in Ebonyi State because the governor will ask all LGAs to bring at least 50k to keep their jobs. They will provide buses, pocket money, etc. Atiku will do the same in Abia State for the same reason.
But Obi’s numbers are organic and not anchored by any in-state structure. I model that 2:1 on impact. So Obi does not need to have a crowd as large as Tinubu in Niger because APC has the political comparative advantage with the state house under its control. Again, I have not called this election.
Everybody go for Jagaban in Niger State, in fact, everybody go for Jagaban in Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, and Plateau in sha Allah. Jagaban will poll 25% of votes in Benue State and Abuja respectively in sha Allah. I laughed in Indonesian style when Prof. Ndubuisi Ekekwe said Mr. Peter Obi will lead in the North Central.🤣🤣🤣
Thanks Nurudeen Adeyemi for this. The good news about all models in elections is that there will be results one day. I called it for Buhari in 2019. I have not made a call for 2023. But in my internal model, if Obi goes to Ekiti State and 100 people show up, I expect Tinubu to have 200 since Ekiti is under APC for parity. So if Tinubu goes to Niger State and 100 people show up, and Obi goes and 51 show up, Obi is outperforming because the 51 are unstructured human elements with no infrastructure to stimulate attendance.
Tinubu will have a great crowd in Ebonyi State because the governor will ask all LGAs to bring at least 50k to keep their jobs. They will provide buses, pocket money, etc. Atiku will do the same in Abia State for the same reason.
But Obi’s numbers are organic and not anchored by any in-state structure. I model that 2:1 on impact. So Obi does not need to have a crowd as large as Tinubu in Niger because APC has the political comparative advantage with the state house under its control. Again, I have not called this election.
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Everybody go for Jagaban in Niger State, in fact, everybody go for Jagaban in Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, and Plateau in sha Allah. Jagaban will poll 25% of votes in Benue State and Abuja respectively in sha Allah. I laughed in Indonesian style when Prof. Ndubuisi Ekekwe said Mr. Peter Obi will lead in the North Central.🤣🤣🤣