Hyperliquid, a leading decentralized perpetuals exchange, wrapped up 2025 strongly with ~$844 million in annual revenue primarily from perps trading fees and ~$2.95 trillion in cumulative trading volume, per data from sources like DefiLlama, Hyperscreener, and ASXN.
However, activity cooled in late December amid broader market consolidation and rising competition from platforms like Lighter and Aster. Weekly revenue for Dec 22–28 hit $9.16 million — the lowest since May 2025 and a ~70% drop from its 2025 peak of $31.1 million according to DefiLlama data reported across Phemex, KuCoin, PANews.
This reflects declining volumes— 7-day perps volume down ~35% and user engagement as points-farming hype faded.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026): big discounts for early bird.
Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass opens registrations.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab: From Technical Design to Deployment (next edition begins Jan 24 2026).
Upcoming Team Token UnlockOn January 6, 2026
Hyperliquid will distribute 1.2 million HYPE tokens ~$31–32 million at current prices of ~$25–26 to team members/core contributors. This is part of the scheduled vesting for the 23.8% team allocation, 238 million HYPE total following a 1-year cliff that ended in late 2025.
Future distributions (if any) will occur monthly on the 6th for predictability, as announced by co-founder Iliensinc on Discord. Some reports note this is 30% less than an earlier expected amount (1.7M), potentially easing pressure.
HYPE currently trades around $25–26 with market cap ~$8.7 billion, ranking top 15, down ~57% from its September 2025 ATH of ~$59 but up significantly from launch levels. The unlock adds ~0.12% to circulating supply monthly, offset partly by protocol buybacks— 99% of fees go to an Assistance Fund for HYPE repurchases and recent burns.
Community sentiment is mixed: transparency reduces FUD, but short-term selling pressure is possible in a low-volume holiday period. While near-term volatility looms, Hyperliquid’s real revenue flywheel and dominance in on-chain perps ~80% market share earlier in 2025 provide strong fundamentals heading into 2026.
The combination of declining revenue and the upcoming 1.2 million HYPE token unlock valued at ~$30–32 million at current prices of ~$25–26 creates a challenging near-term setup for Hyperliquid and $HYPE.
Potential Price Pressure from Unlock
This distribution to team/core contributors represents ~0.3–0.4% of total supply but adds new circulating tokens in a low-volume holiday period. Historical unlocks in November 2025, caused temporary dips due to perceived selling.
Analysts forecast possible 10–15% corrections if team members sell portions, especially amid broader market consolidation. Community sentiment is mixed—transparency reduces FUD, but short-term volatility is expected, with crowded longs risking liquidations below $24–25 support.
Weekly revenue hitting $9.16 million, lowest since May signals cooling trader activity, fading points-farming hype, and rising competition like Lighter, Aster eroding market share from ~80% earlier in 2025 to ~30–40%.
Lower fees mean reduced buybacks via the Assistance Fund which absorbs ~99% of revenue for HYPE repurchases, potentially failing to fully offset unlock supply. This could extend downward pressure on $HYPE, already down ~57% from its $59 ATH.
Holiday lows in volume exacerbate risks. If selling materializes post-Jan 6, $HYPE could test $20–22 levels. However, predictability monthly unlocks on the 6th allows planning, and reductions from initial estimates ~1.7M to 1.2M ease some concerns.
Despite near-term headwinds, Hyperliquid’s fundamentals remain robust, positioning it well for 2026 recovery and growth. Closed the year with $844 million revenue, $2.95 trillion cumulative volume, and dominance in on-chain perps.
Real revenue flywheel; fees ? buybacks and burns, e.g., recent 37–37.5 million token burn creates deflationary pressure over time, offsetting monthly unlocks, $30M supply vs. higher buyback potential in active markets.
Team’s 23.8% allocation vests gradually over 24 months, aligning incentives without VC/overhang dumps seen in rivals. No VC funding preserves “people’s token” narrative. Roadmap includes equity perps expansion, Airdrop Season 2, and protocol upgrades. Competition is healthy—drives innovation while Hyperliquid retains top-3 status and high open interest.
Rebounds in volume common post-holidays could quickly restore revenue/buybacks. Short-term risks of volatility and downside but long-term outlook bullish due to proven revenue, transparent vesting, and perps leadership.
$HYPE’s resilience up massively from launch despite dips suggests dips as accumulation opportunities for believers in on-chain derivatives dominance.