According to IC Insights, about 1.5 billion cellphones will be shipped in 2011. This will be 9% annual growth rate of the 2010 number which was 1.4 billion. They also noted that this will be a record number for the industry. As shown in the figure, the number has consistently gone up year over year except in 2009 where it could be attributed to post-recession. By 2014, the number will be 1.79 billion which will represent 26% of the total figure in 2010.
What are the drivers?
IC Insights explains that the surging shipments of smartphones, and their associated high IC content, are forecast to have a huge impact on the IC market through the forecast period.
Smartphones accounted for about 25% of total cellphone shipments in 1Q11 compared to 16% in the same quarter a year earlier. In 2011, total smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 60% to 440 million units, after increasing 56% to 275 million in 2010! Almost half of all cellphone handsets shipped in 2014 (47%) are expected to be some type of smartphone, up from 19% in 2010.
It is easy to understand why mobile based business is a new model because very soon, most businesses will move to the mobile ecosystem.