JPMorgan has forecasted that Bitcoin could reach around $170,000 in the next 6-12 months, based on a fresh analysis released on November 6, 2025.
This comes amid a recent pullback in BTC’s price below $100,000 it was trading around $103,000 as of early November 7, marking its first dip under that psychological level in four months. The prediction stands out as bullish, especially against a backdrop of broader market caution, including revised-down targets from firms like Galaxy Digital now at $120,000 for year-end 2025, down from $185,000.
Lead Analyst: Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director, argues Bitcoin is currently undervalued relative to gold when adjusted for volatility. Gold’s recent surge above $4,000/oz has increased its volatility, making BTC more appealing on a risk-adjusted basis.
The BTC-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning Bitcoin now absorbs about 1.8 times more “risk capital” than gold. At BTC’s current market cap of ~$2.1 trillion, this implies a need for a ~67% increase to align with gold’s ~$6.2 trillion in private-sector investments via ETFs and physical holdings.
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Price Math: A 67% cap rise from current levels points to ~$170,000 per BTC. JPMorgan notes BTC was ~$36,000 overvalued vs. gold at the end of 2024 but is now ~$68,000 undervalued.
The October 10 liquidation wave the largest ever for BTC perpetual futures has cleared excess leverage, with open interest ratios normalizing. This “deleveraging phase” is seen as complete, setting the stage for upside.
Timeline: “Significant upside” over the next 6-12 months, assuming stable conditions. This isn’t JPMorgan’s first BTC-gold comparison—earlier in October 2025, they eyed $165,000 by year-end—but the new report extends the horizon and refines the target.
While JPMorgan’s take is optimistic, sentiment is mixed: Bearish Signals: October was BTC’s worst month since 2018 (down 4-5%), driven by a $128 million DeFi hack, whale sell-offs ~400,000 BTC dumped, and macro headwinds like potential tariffs. Some analysts doubt a quick rebound to $125,000 by end-2025.
Voices like Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego predict BTC could hit $1 million “very shortly” to rival gold’s reserve status. ETF inflows remain positive overall, despite modest October redemptions.
On platforms like Reddit’s r/CryptoCurrency, responses range from excitement (“I want to believe”) to skepticism (“Kiss of death from JP Morgan”), with some joking about the bank’s track record.
Bitcoin’s year-to-date gains are still robust despite the dip, fueled by ETF demand and its “digital gold” narrative. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon remains personally skeptical of crypto, but the firm’s research arm has grown more constructive.
A sustained move to $170 k would re-price the entire crypto capital stack, force central-bank policy responses, and cement BTC as a macro asset—but only if gold and leverage stay in JPMorgan’s forecasted range.
Macro shock – Fed QT + tariff war ? risk-off; BTC drops to $80 k. Regulatory clampdown – SEC reclassifies BTC ETFs as “security” ? forced redemptions. Gold catch-up – If gold volatility collapses, JPM model flips bearish.
Gold ETFs (GLD) see outflows; JPM’s own volatility-adjusted model implies gold needs to hit $4,800/oz to stay competitive ? unlikely in 12 mo. BTC seen as “digital gold 2.0”; reduces relative appeal of 10-yr T-bills.
Possible 25–50 bps upward pressure on yields if institutional rotation accelerates. ETH/BTC ratio likely stays <0.04 until BTC stabilizes; alts underperform until Q2 2026. Meme coins (DOGE, PEPE) still pump on retail hype.
If this prediction holds, it could signal a rebound from the post-peak correction BTC hit $126,000 ATH in October. Keep an eye on gold prices, futures leverage, and ETF flows for confirmation—volatility is BTC’s middle name.